Efficient Market Hypothesis Proposed By Fama

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been subject to professional and academic debate and analysis for many years, and refers to the theory proposing that stock prices show all information regarding a firm’s value. An efficient market is a market in which investors with the same information and similar investment goals compete actively (Sewell, 2012). Many private investors and investors aiming to make profits are involved with the stock market and often make low risk investments while aiming for high rates of return. However, the efficient market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the stock market as the market is able to quickly adjust to new information. The Efficient Market Hypothesis also addresses

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an important assumption in finance. What are the various forms of the EMH? Does the EMH in any of its forms make sense given the current economic circumstances?

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has consistently remained in the forefront of finance theory for decades. As technology has advanced, the ability to assess the efficient market hypothesis has increased exponentially and so have the opportunities to exploit it. Tactics such as high frequency trading and insider trading threaten the dependability of the efficient market hypothesis. EMH is a rudimentary theory that implies the value of an asset is directly correlated or about equal to the intrinsic value of the asset. (Brigham & Houston, 2012) The intrinsic value of a stock is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors (investopedia.com, 2014). Investors use this logic to determine whether to buy or sell a stock depending on its perceived value with respect to the intrinsic value. Whether the investor employs an active or passive investment strategy, the EMH is a rational decision making process to ensure a confident investment.

random errort. The expected return is a function of a security‟s risk and the random component is due to new information, which by definition arrives randomly; hence, in a weak form efficient market, stock prices follow a random walk ,that is cannot be predicted (see fig. 2) (Hillier et al 2010).

Capital markets provide a function which facilitates the buying and selling of long-term financial securities to increase liquidity and their value, Watson & Head (2013). Hence, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains the relationship that exists with the prices of the capital market securities, where no individual can beat the market by regularly buying securities at a lower price than it should be. This means that in order to be an efficient market prices of securities will have to fairly and fully reflect all available information, Fama (1970). Consequently, Watson & Head (2013) believe that market efficiency refers to the speed and quality of how share price adjusts to new information. Nevertheless, the testing of the efficient markets has led to the recognition of three different forms of efficiency in which explains how information available is used within the market. In this essay, the EMH will be analysed; testing of EMH will show that the model does provide strong evidence to explain share behaviour but also anomalies will be discussed that refutes the EMH. Therefore, a judgment will be made to see which structure explains the efficient market and whether there are some implications with the EMH, as a whole.

The behaviour of markets and investors, the decision making in the market place and the dynamics of demand and supply in any given market cannot be determined with a hundred percent accuracy. However master minds in the past have designed various techniques and theories that help investors make a particular buying decision, or to make choices logically. These theories and techniques help today’s investors to peep into the future and make almost immaculate predictions regarding the future behaviour of the market and the ongoing trends. A lay man night view the decision making of an investor as being solely based upon speculation but in reality every move that an investor makes today in the market place is backed up by sound calculation and

The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) is a dominant financial markets theory developed by Michael Jensen, a graduate of the University of Chicago and one of the creators of the efficient markets hypothesis, stated that, “there is no other proposition in economics which has more solid empirical evidence supporting it than the Efficient Markets Hypothesis” [Jensen, 1978, 96]. This paper analyzes whether it is possible to measure if markets are efficient in the strong form of EMH. A generation ago, the efficient market hypothesis was widely accepted by academic financial economists; for example, Eugene Fama’s (1970) influential survey article, “Efficient Capital Markets.” It was generally believed that securities markets were

When establishing financial prices, the market is usually deemed to be well-versed and clever. In a stock market, stocks are based on the information given and should be priced at the accurate level. In the past, this was supposed to be guaranteed by the accessibility of sufficient information from investors. However, as new information is given the prices would shift. “Free markets, so the hypothesis goes, could only be inefficient if investors ignored price sensitive data. Whoever used this data could make large profits and the market would readjust becoming efficient once again” (McMinn, 2007, ¶ 1). This paper will identify the different forms of EMH, sources supporting and refuting the EMH and finally

Efficient Market Hypothesis has been controversial issues among researcher for decades. Until now, there is no united conclusion whether capital markets are efficiency or not. In 1960s, Fama (1970) believed that market is very efficient despite there are some trivial contradicted tests. Until recently, both empirical and theatrical efficient market hypothesis was being disputed by behavior finance economist. They have found that investor have psychological biases and found evidences that some stocks outperform other stocks. Moreover, there are evidences prove that market are not efficient for instance financial crisis, stock market bubble, and some investor can earn abnormal return which happening regularly in stock markets all over the world. Therefore, the purpose of this essay is to demonstrate that Efficient Market Hypothesis in stock (capital) markets does not exist in the real world by proofing four outstanding unrealistic conditions that make market efficient: information is widely available and cost-free, investor are rational, independent and unbiased, There is no liquidity problem in stock market, and finally stock prices has no pattern.

The efficient market, as one of the pillars of neoclassical finance, asserts that financial markets are efficient on information. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that there is no trading system based on currently available information that could be expected to generate excess risk-adjusted returns consistently as this information is already reflected in current prices. However, EMH has been the most controversial subject of research in the fields of financial economics during the last 40 years. “Behavioural finance, however, is now seriously challenging this premise by arguing that people are clearly not rational” (Ross, (2002)). Behavioral finance uses facts from psychology and other human sciences in order to

In February 1995, Adam Bain, investment advisor in the London, Ontario branch of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. (RBC DS), was considering whether or not to implement a price momentum strategy for his clients. Trend and Cycle, DS’s technical research department, had recently circulated a copy of a study which described a simple price momentum model and referred to its “startling results” based on back testing the strategy over a 15 year period. The Trend and Cycle group had long promoted the importance of price momentum and relative strength to potential clients. Bain needs to determine whether the proposed model was “too good to be true” or, if it did not look promising, how he would go about

The premise of an efficient market is that stock prices adjust accordingly as information is received. The speed and accuracy of the pricing changes are a reflection of the strength of the market efficiency, where in theory a perfectly efficient market will re-adjust prices immediately and precisely with new information. The efficient market hypothesis aligns with beliefs about whether technical and fundamental analyses are useful in making investment decisions or whether a passive approach is appropriate. In a perfectly efficient market, these types of analyses are not able to predict stock price trends (based on market inefficiencies or price abnormalities) which could assist in portfolio positioning or investment management. However, some investors belive that the market pricing is not precise and that there are timing windows and pricing trends that can be identified through analysis of past performance and finding price abnormalities where all information is not correctly reflected in the stock price (Hirt, Block and Basu, 2006).

With the penetration of the research on the securities market, scholars have found many “abnormal phenomenon”, which is contrary to the Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH) proposed by Eugene Fama, a professor of Finance at the university of Chicago Booth School of Business. The hypothesis was based on the efficient markets model after the proof of theoretical and empirical literature. Fama argued that stock prices has fully reflected all available information (mainly historical information about price changes, such as the previous stock price) in the efficient market and new information is unpredictable which makes the stock price changes follow a random walk. However, in weak-form efficiency market, investors can not rely on the analysis of the trend of historical changes of stock price to get the so-called law of change in the stock price and consistently obtain excess profits by it. If the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis is set up, the technical analysis of the share price become unhelpful anymore, and the basic analysis may also help the investors to gain extra profits. Numerous experimental tests on weak-form efficiency market hypothesis show that the market is basically inefficient after deducting trading costs. For

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the well-known methods for measuring the future value of stock prices. According to this hypothesis, the market is efficient if its prices are formed on the basis of all disposable information. According to EMH if there is a possibility to predict the future price of shares, that is the first sign of an inefficient market.

Another concern relates of insider trading of market efficiency of stock market. In his classical study Fama (1970) proposes efficient market Hypothesis, which suggests that stock price reflects all available information (historical price, public and private) in