Election Forecasting

After the American states drafted the Constitution, there were conflicting ideas concerning how the states should be governed. Some believed that a strong federal government should wield most of the governing powers, but there was another group that opposed a strong federal government. This group, known as the Republicans, believed that the majority of governing powers should reside in state legislatures. Republicans felt that the powers of the federal government should be limited, and the Republicans believed that the Constitution supported this idea.

Political science is known to be one of the most ignored sciences there are. Over the years, there has not been a demand for everyone to pay attention to politics because people always have their own opinion anyways. Ten Things Political Scientists Know that You Don’t was an article written by Hans Noel. His main objective to writing this was to inform readers of the reasons why politics is something that is important to understand. Many journalists and bloggers became more aware of politics and want to know more about what political scientists actually know. This article also wants to inform many people that political science is something that you can study over a period of time, which is the real reason to pay attention to elections. Hans Noel came up with 10 different things that political scientists know but American citizens do not.

In fact “ nearly 4 in 10 people have taken steps to block or minimize the political content they see from other users.” This shows that people modify what things they see on social media and proves that political opinions have become much more popular to share on a personal profile. The shocking thing is that “overall 20% of social media users said they have modified their stance on a political issue because of material they saw on social media and 17% say social media has helped change their views about a specific candidate.” Pew Research Center goes on to say that people who have changed their political views on an issue stated that social media pointed their views in a more negative direction. This is important to acknowledge because knowing that the ideas that changed people’s mind on how they thought about a specific candidate were negative can lead to the assumption that the news they were reading could have been fake. Since these numbers are so low it can be hard to argue that the news people receive on social media is considerable enough to influence people’s opinions

As time goes on, social networking sites can influence millions of people without thinking about the consequences. Foer wanted the readers to understand the full impact of Facebook by mentioning that “No other company has so precisely boasted about its ability to shape democracy like this-and for good reason. It’s too much power to entrust to a corporation” (75). The author found it peculiar that Facebook wanted to boast about their success, and the amount of influence that they have. Foer meant by “the ability to shape democracy” is Mark Zuckerberg is allowing Facebook to change the Democratic Party and he does not deny this accusation. He is able to reshape democracy due to the excessive use of algorithms. The people controlling the algorithms are allowing it to pick videos or post pictures that could have social pressures which can influence a person to sway from their original stance. Algorithms should be posting videos at random and should pick related videos if the users asks for it; that way, the user knows what they want and it will be their chose if they want to continuing watching the same videos. Facebook could be sneaky and can be inhumane when it comes to human emotions. Resulting in another treacherous scenario because Facebook does not care, “Whether the information is true or concocted, authoritative reporting or conspiratorial opinion, doesn’t really seem to matter much to Facebook. The crowd gets what it wants and deserves” (Foer 76). Foer mentions something that can be tremendously petrifying to the world and it is that Facebook does not care whether or not a piece of news is genuine on their site. The word “concocted” means made up and Facebook does not filter or check out the sources that make up facts that millions of people read. By ignoring their obligation to check out news like a journalist does, they allow the crowd to get what they want, even if it is fabricated.

For instance, when Shapiro states that past a 1200 people that signed and the 1950s decade that Shapiro explained that the Freeman School started to use the mascot for sports events; if for instance Shapiro used words such as exactly 1200 people or stated one year that is between the 1950s, the information would not be credible because the number of people was still growing and there is no proof of the exact year that the school started to use the mascot in the article (Shapiro). Another example may be the number people that signed the petition and the year that Douglas Southall Freeman School opened, which is 1954 (Shapiro). Therefore, because Shapiro used a large number of people in which, for example, of a County, is somehow significant because the numbers show a positive argument of the article. Also, by showing the year that the school was opened, the year may represent a phenomenal proof of the argument because it may be showing that the story of the Confederate flag may have started in between the decade when the school was created. Nevertheless, given that many readers would want source links because they may think that source credibility is the most important element, Shapiro’s unwavering path to credibility may be at risk. Many readers analyze many texts or articles because of their website and author’s transparency to the readers to access the source links. For this reason, the capacity for readers to see where the information came from, may be a way to not lead the website into a façade and a way to guarantee that the information is reliable and credible. In spite of the fact given that many readers seek credible sources that possess source links, the fact that Shapiro used words such as some, often and more than, he may not be showing a strong certainty

Assess the extent to which incumbents have an adage over challengers in congressional elections. (25marks)

To begin with, the candidates for the president election must first go through the requirements of the U.S constitution. For instance, the U.S constitution states, “the president must be a natural born citizen of the united states, be at least 35 years of ages, and have been a resident of the united states for 14 years” (Presidential Election). Hence, the president must go through these requirements in order to declare their intention of running for the president of the United States without being turned down. With that being said, “Candidates who receive contributions or make expenditures in excess of $5,000 must register with the Federal Election Commission” (Quick Answers). In addition, “within 15 days of reaching the threshold, the candidates

When the words “swing state” are mentioned, Florida is perhaps one of the first states a person may think of. In this year’s election cycle, the story is no different. Florida has a single senate seat up for election, and Marco Rubio (R), and Patrick Murphy (D) are hoping to claim it on November 8th. Marco Rubio has held that seat since the last senate election in 2010, giving him an edge as the incumbent. Patrick Murphy is the challenger and has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2012. A glance at any polling numbers shows Rubio ahead, and most have shown him ahead since the beginning of the race. The polls do not show a commanding lead, as one may expect from an incumbent. While polling margins are slimmer than many average incumbents, money has not stopped flowing to Rubio. His finances are typical of an incumbent particularly that of a closely contested race. It may be impossible to tell which has the greater effect of Rubio’s fundraising. In states that are typically swing states and have close political races, simple analyses such as incumbency advantage may not fully explain the results and polls in the race.

He immediately introduces this technique in the introduction of his article. He references famous political leaders like former president Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders. These leaders all care deeply about the problem of inequality, and Reynolds uses this to his advantage. He quotes Obama as calling inequality the “defining challenge of our time,” and Sanders as saying that a rigged economy causes inequality. This reinforces Reynolds argument by showing the audience that credible people supposedly agree with his cause. Soon after, his quotes former Labor secretary Robert Reich, which further validates his argument by using a quote from someone who most likely knows a lot about this topic. He also quotes the results of a survey from National Journal, which once again strengths his article with a credible source. Over the course of the article, Reynolds uses many credible sources to reinforce his

In order to find sources for my paper, I used several websites and two books. I also used a scholarly journal I found through Library databases. I actually gathered a lot of research on the topics of rhetoric and political campaigns, but the sources I used were ones that were related to my thesis. Which was, “Through news, social media and TV current politicians such as Donald Trump use their rhetorical tools to influence a much larger portion of the population’s way of thinking in the political sphere.” Sources that supported this thesis were ones related to news and politics, social media, and television. As well I used Donald Trump, as my example throughout this paper because of his current popularity and his interesting rhetorical uses. I disagreed a lot of biased information from a source that I later

There are many differences between the presidential and congressional elections. The requirements differ from both presidential and congressional elections. To run for congress one must be at least 25 years old and must have been at least a US citizens for at least seven years, and sometimes convicted felons have been able to successfully run for congress and some have won a seat. On the other hand, to run for president one must be at least 35 years old, must be a natural born citizen, and have been residing in the United States for 14 years to run for president. In addition, the congressional elections are the lesser known or televised by the media and are more local than the presidential elections. As a result of being more local and

Voter suppression is not a “new” topic in regards to voting and voter turnout. Last year, Governor Robert Bentley of Alabama closed 31 driver license offices in rural areas of the state due to a budget shortfall. However, this raised concern and conflict to the fact that this made it difficult for a majority of Alabama citizens to vote.

The first area I looked at was political parties role in our history. There were a multitude of sources that came up, but only a few that dealt with American political parties or was broad enough to use for this topic. For example, there was one article that dealt interpreted the political parties role in U.S. tariff policy in the 1820s (Daniel Purt). I felt that that subject was too narrow for the area of interest I was looking to explore, so with that I decided to move on to another article. The first article I really looked in depth at was an article from Richard L. McCormick, titled “Politics in the United States: Reinterpreting their Natural History” And this article goes over, broadly, the different realignments and political transitions that have occurred in our country. In the article it also talks about new ideas political scientists now focus on. Being as previously they only focused on voting patterns (McCormick), the scope of inquiry has now increased to a multitude of topics. While

Political science includes a wide range of topics that attempts to describe and explain the political process, politics, and the relationship among governments. As American citizens we should all be informed and be educated about all these above topics. We as citizens cannot be unconscious of our government as the government can make or break our lives. The general areas of study in political science include American government and politics, political theory, public administration, public law, comparative politics and international relations.

Political campaigns are very significant in American politics and elections. It is the period before the electorate makes political decisions in the form of elections. The attention of the citizens towards politics intensifies as the date of the elections draws near. The salience of voters improves as the election date draws near and could manifest in the form of increased media attention. Political discussions, campaign interest, strength of the intention to vote, and knowledge about the candidates are other manifestations of increased salience of voters. Another indication of improved intensity is the effort put by the candidates and their political parties in the campaigns. Parties increase their efforts in the