Energy Supply, Its Demand and Security Issues for Developed and Emerging Economies

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Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Solar Energy 112 (2015) 68–77 www.elsevier.com/locate/solener Short-term reforecasting of power output from a 48 MWe solar PV plant Yinghao Chu, Bryan Urquhart, Seyyed M.I. Gohari, Hugo T.C. Pedro, Jan Kleissl, Carlos F.M. Coimbra ⇑ Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Jacobs School of Engineering, Center for Renewable Resource Integration, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Jacobs School of Engineering, Center for Energy Research, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA Received 31 March 2014; received in revised form…show more content…
In this work, the application of re-forecasting advanced here is different than the one used for meteorological models. Reforecasting in meteorology is used over long periods of historical data to fine tune the parameters of deterministic models, while here the proposed reforecasting is a method to statistically improve predictive model in real-time using optimized stochastic learning techniques. In this work, the reforcasting operates as adaptive Model Output Statistics (MOS) enhancers for each of the baseline forecasting models. Accordingly, reforecasting is applied for 3 distinct intrahour forecast horizons (5, 10 and 15 min ahead) of power output for a photovoltaic power station in Boulder City, Nevada. The data used for model development and testing are discussed in Section 2. The three baseline forecasting models: a cloud tracking based deterministic model (Det), an Autoregressive and Moving Average model (ARMA), and a k-th Nearest Neighbor model (kNN) are described in Section 3. Section 3 also covers the smart
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