Essay On Bayesian Analysis

Managers within organizations are faced with the challenges daily of making excellent decisions. In everyday life we are challenged in making sound decision, decision that will last for a life time. Folk often wonder after making a decision if it was the right choice, will it affect the people around me, was this a good choice for my family, and will the decision affect them. In order to be an effective manager you have to possess the skill of outstanding decision making skills. In order for one to be successful within their personal life they may also need to possess an understanding of effective decision making. The decision- making process should be one that makes a positive change. Can the decision making process work

Decision-making in the workforce is a process of responsibilities used by upper management to implement, enforce rules, regulations, and maintain a successful environment. Decision-making implemented more effectively by making a plan, thinking it through, accepting more than one opinion and determining what is best. However, decision-making often utilized more effectively by opening doors of opportunities for a suggestion, question, discussion, and feedback. Although, more involvement helps improve understanding, utilize behavior skills and present opportunities for better communication. Everyday life consists of decision-making, the right decision may not always be applied, but ensure room for improvement and opportunity. Individuals approached decision-making in many different ways. As stated by (Jones, Graham, & Bateman, 2006) decision making is a procedure used to recognize a problem, weigh the alternatives and evaluate a solution in which, certain situations will require different approaches to become effective.

Risk mitigation would allow the project manager to know the project’s strengths and weaknesses then evaluate the threats facing the project. The project manager would implement different strategies such as lowering exposure to threats or improving strengths of the project to make sure that the variance in schedule and cost is not very high when there are risk event occurrences. A risk mitigation strategy ensures that the project manager, the implementing team, and the project’s stakeholders are on the same page in the project implementation job. It also gives the project team an opportunity to address risks in advance so resolving additional issues becomes easy when the issues occur later during the implementation of the project. Moreover, the risk management strategy would fine-tune the parameters used for measuring the results of the project (Kerzner,

28) A conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred.

Good risk assessment requires an elaborate plan. A risk management plan is a project management type that helps ensure that an organization reaches desired goals in a given project (Gibson, 2010). Like every plan, caution should be taken to make sure that goals of the assessment are achievable given the best accommodation of time and cost. This calls for organization to have a risk scope. Risk scope simply identifies the boundaries of a given risk assessment. This is

There are two main types of risk management assessments. They are qualitative and quantitative methodologies. With the qualitative methodology, a relative values are used to determine the probability and impact of a risk (Gibson, 2011). This type of information can be collected quickly. A quantitative risk assessment is used to estimate how much money would be lost should a vulnerability be exploited (Vanderberg, n.d.). With the quantitative methodology, actual dollar values are used. It can take a time to gather this type of data. Once the data is gathered, however, a math formula is used to determine the priority of risks and in turn show the results of controls (Gibson, 2011).

Risk is defined as an event that has a probability of occurring, and could have either a positive or negative impact to a project should that risk occur. Project managers should keep a watchful eye on all of the project 's risks as they have a direct impact on a project’s cost, schedule, and performance. All projects assume some element of risk, and it’s through risk management where tools and techniques are applied to monitor and track those events that have the potential to impact the outcome of a project.

understand that the measure of the likelihood of an event can be represented by a number from 0 to 1.

Making a decision is one of the main activities of a leader. Wren and Voich (Wren and Voich, 1994) believe that decision making is mandatory for successful execution of any managerial function.

For example, in the building alterations, the tasks and the cost could be outlined with a quantitative modeling method. As well as a qualitative method, that includes a matrix, which will assist in developing risk responses that will be effective in mitigating possible risk. When a part was needed for a project deciding if it would be more economical to purchase or make the part. When presented with numerical data with cost, life cycle, and maintenance cost for up keep on two or more products that achieve the same goal. A risk management plan could be used to help access and handle project related risks. As for the risk tree, it could be used to help the project team decide on what the best option is for a task by giving a visual representation of the if then relationships in terms of

Identifying risks will involve the entire project team and will include an evaluation of all factors including the project management plan. Careful consideration to the project deliverables will be given when analyzing the risks. Analysis of possible risks have been prioritized by calculating the risk numerically from 1-10, from less likely to likely to occur and minor impact to severe impact to project success, respectively. A numerical rating is applied to the values of occurrence, outcome, and detection and then calculated to a risk priority number (RPN) to assess the risk to the project.

Retrospective risk assessment deals with problems that have happened or problems that almost occurred. With this method, looking back on what caused the problem to occur or almost occur are assessed. Then ideas are gathered to help prevent these problems from happening again. This is where risk managers are essential to a healthcare organization. This process was created and is used today to lessen the chances of financial risks to the healthcare organization now and long-term. This is done by trying to limit the liability throughout the system of the organization, whether this is staff, goals, rules, equipment, or etc. This is a very complex process and is much deeper than finding a single employee that was involved and blaming them for the fault. With retrospective risk assessment the uses of analytics are extremely important to figure out what has caused a problem and what can be done to prevent it from happening again or any slight alternatives to the problem.

Project Risk Management – identifies potential risks (good and bad) that can affect the objectives of the project.

The decision is to select an action among a number of actions that solves a given problem, that prevents a problem from happening, or that forces to apply new ideas for development. The need for understanding decision making process is increasing because the complexity of modern organizations is increasing, and because the modern organizations' effectiveness depends on the decisions made by the managers. The question is how to select the most appropriate action to solve the problem satisfying all stakeholders.

Concept of risk, risk assessment, risk management and how uncertainty affects the process will be discussed.