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Essay On Extreme Temperature

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This paper examined the association, instead of causality, of extreme climatic events on the net and the out population flows in communities in the NSW region of the MDB through Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling. The datasets were obtained from different sources with misalignments in geographical locations and in time. This required an extensive amount of data preparation and modelling to create the dataset for the final analysis presented in this paper. Furthermore, we formally tested that both the spatial dependency and the temporal dependency is statistically important, and thus should not be ignored in the modelling hierarchy, which is often not the case in the literature as we mentioned in Section 1.

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The model-based results indicated that the extreme climatic events (both temperature and precipitations) have a negative association on the net population flow for various communities. According to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (Pachauri et al., 2014) the extreme heat events are increasing (as also indicated in Figure 4), and will keep increasing in the future to accompany a more volatile climate. In addition, projections to 2100 from various global climate models also show that the extremes would continue to be intensified (Donat et al., 2016) and a similar intensification trend on heat days as well as extreme rainfall days are projected for the MDB (Leblanc et al., 2012). The extreme climatic events like hurricanes and river flooding often devastate communities and then damage socio-economic status, which would further influence population flows as evidenced in the US study (Cross, 2014). Hence, with an additional assumption for the conditions of socio-economic variables remain unchanged, we see from the predictive scenario analysis that the total population will decrease in some of the agriculture-related SA2s. With a further development on social-sciences conceptual theories and with more data collection, our future modelling development would help to answer some more interesting questions like how many net/out population flow will reach a critical point for a SA2 community. Federal,

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