External / Macro Environment ( Ks )

The world population of 7.2 billion in mid-2013 is projected to increase by almost one billion people within the next twelve years. It is projected to reach 8.1 billion in 2025, and to further increase to 9.6 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. This assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent as well as a slight increase of fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average.

The United States is the third most populated country in the world. This country holds about 4.5% of the world’s population. The U.S. population is currently estimated to have 308.7 million persons. This number is more than double of the population from 1950. Besides the fact of the population has doubled its size, the population has also become qualitatively different from the one from 1950. As noted by the Population Reference Bureau, “The U.S. is getting bigger, older, and more diverse.” The growth of the population is the result of the trends over time in the relationship of increased births, decreased deaths, and increased net immigration.

Colby, S. & Ortman, J. (2015). Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to

The population of the United States continues to change as reflected by the students at

Jacobsen, Kent, Lee, & Mather (2011) stated, “Since women live longer than men in the United States, women will continue to make up a majority of the older population in the foreseeable future” (pg. 3). Whereas, this age distribution among men and women are expected to remain approximately the same between 2009 and 2030, there will be notable changes in the age and gender gap by 2050 as the gap grows smaller (Jacobsen, Kent, Lee, & Mather, 2011). Furthermore, according to Vincent & Velkoff (2010), by the year 2042 the United States will become more racially and ethnically diverse with the combined minority population expected to become the majority. Thus, as people in the United States age over the next several decades, the older population will also become a more racially and ethnically diverse group. In addition, the overall age structure of the population is expected to change a great deal over the next four decades (Vincent & Velkoff, 2010). This will pose even more challenges to policy makers and programs designed to help the elderly like Medicare and Social Security. Therefore, being able to project the size and structure of the older population, in regards to age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin is not only important to public interest, but also private both socially and economically (Vincent & Velkoff, 2010).

Like longevity trends, racial trends among the elderly are an important aspect when looking at demographics of the aging population. The growing aging population is also changing in composition. The aging populace is moving to be a more racially and ethnically diverse population than previous aging populations (Ortman & Velkoff, 2014). In 2010, non-Hispanic whites made up 80% of adults aged 65 years or older, by 2030 that percent will decrease to 71.2% of the population 65 and older. It is predicted that by 2050 non-Hispanic whites will make up fewer than 60% of the

A demographer named William Frey decided to analyze changes in youth population from 2000 to 2014. In 46 out of our 50 states the number of white youth under the age of 20 declined in those 14 years. In 19 states the population had decreased by at least 100,000 people. The only four states with any increase were Utah, Idaho, South Carolina, and North Carolina, although most of these increases were very minimal. Overall around the total white population has shrunk by about 6.6 million, while the population of non-white children has increased by about 8.2 million.

In Chapter 15: Aging and the Elderly, the U.S. birth rate has been falling for more than a century. It happens because children are more likely to survive into adulthood, and so couple have fewer children. As more women work outside the home, they choose to have fewer children. Greater material wealth and advances in medicine have raised living standards so that people benefit from better housing and more nutrition. The oldest segment of the U.S. population, is increasing rapidly and is already forty times greater than in 1900.

the year 2050. Population growth at an overwhelming rate can cause many effects on a

During the analysis, two noticeable factors that bear the most implication to the industry are the population growth rate and the age distribution within the population. The current U.S. population growth rate is .78 percent per year (CIA, 2016). According to historical data, the United States population since 2006 had an estimated 298.36 million people. Since that time, rapid population growth has averaged about 2 million people yearly over the course of ten years according to Figure1.1. Also, Figure 1.1 displays an upward trend in population growth within the United States. Today, the U.S. population should grow to become 321 million by the end of the year 2016. The number of people in the world has increased three decades ago from 4 billion to 6 billion people as of 10 years ago to

According to the U.S. Census Bureau the number of people 65 and older will possibly double by the year 2030. According to Yager (2008) forecasts are showing that the United States could reach a labor shortage by 2030. As

Over the years, there have been major shifts within the United States in regards to its population. Statisticians have estimated that 20% of the population will be 65 years of age and older. There is an even

Statics stated by 2020 the labor force is projected to reach more than 146 million U.S. citizens, a 5.9 percent from today. Economists predict the labor force participation rate will decrease over the coming decades, as an aging

From 1970 to the year 2000, the world's over-60 population is projected to increase by more than 90 percent" . This is an astonishing number, seeming how the total population was predicted to grow by less than 75 percent . "The most prominent feature of the looming shift in the composition of the working-age population is, of course, its increasing age" . It is hard to say what will happen when suddenly there will be an abundance of older people who are preparing to retire.

A drop in net immigration to the United States is a key factor that has contributed to the aging of the US population. According to the U.S. census Bureau, “there have been a drop in immigration levels in the United States”, which, mean that a smaller share of U.S. population growth can directly attribute to immigration similar to natural increase these can also be related to jobs losses that are normally filled by immigrants such as construction jobs, and manufacturing jobs. Declining fertility rates are also a key factor in the United States. “In the past the 18 and under have exceeded the 65 and older, but now have declined by 190,000 per the Census Bureau in 2010 and 2011 while the elderly have increased by 917,000. Working-age adults, and those in childbearing ages, is also down”. There is also a decline in fertility rates as well, they estimated 4 billion birth between 2010 and 2011 which is down from the 4.2 that was between 2005 and 2006.