FIN553 Advanced Coporate Finance
Case Study: Penelope's Personal Pocket Phones
Brian Erber, Jaime Carreno, Wenliang Zhang, Xue Liu
(Introduction) Background info about the project.
In order to evaluate the NPV of the first-generation phone (project) ignoring the possibility of investing in the second-generation phone (project), we projected the free cash flows (FCF) of the first-generation phone through 2001 to 2006. The total FCF was calculated as EBIT plus deprecation and subtract any capital expenditures along with change in net working capital. With risk-free rate of 10%, comparable firms’ beta of 1.2, and market premium of 4%, the appropriate discount rate for the project was 14.8% using CAPM. Sum…show more content…
The third scenario was ignoring the option to invest in the second-generation project and selling the equipment in year 2. We evaluated this option as a put option. First, we calculated the probabilities for going up and down based on the assumption of a risk neutral word. As a result, the probability of going upward is calculated as 0.3375 and downward probability is 0.6625. In order to determine the present value of all the sequence cash flow at the end of year 2, we calculated the upside change rate and downside change rate as 64.87% and -39.35%, respectfully. The next step is to analyze the option value by using the “Binomial Tree” method. In order to determine the present value of all the subsequence cash flow at the end of year 2, we calculated the cash flow at each node on the tree, until 2006. We discounted all the cash flow at the risk free rate at 10%. The End of Year NPV of all the subsequence cash flow at Year 2 is calculated as $7,571,752, and the selling price of the equipment at end of 2 is $4,000,000, which is the salvage value. We found the NPV of selling the machine at end of Year 2 to be -$2,951,861 as of Year 0, which is negative. The APV of the project after adding the option turned out to be -$6,321,932. This negative APV suggest that the