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Factors That Affect The Body Mass Of Adult Female Yellow Bellied Marmots

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Over the past few decades, the expression of a variety of life history, behavioural, and physiological traits have been correlated with systematic environmental changes in temperature, growing season length, and precipitation1,2. The assumed causal pathway in most if not all studies is that environmental changes drive changes in traits, and these changes lead to changes in fitness3. This causal model has rarely been explicitly tested and the quantitative genetic consequences of such changes in fitness are mostly unknown. Here, we close that gap by combining both a path analysis and a quantitative genetic approach on 37 years of data on a wild population of adult female yellow-bellied marmots. We demonstrate that changes in body mass were driven by the changes in spring temperature, but contrary to any expectations the increase in fitness was not caused by changes in temperature or body mass. Changes in body mass are thus not directly responsible for the observed change in population dynamic. In addition, we found a constant positive selection at the phenotypic level on body mass, a constant heritability of fitness, and a varying (but not trending) heritability of body mass. Our results clearly indicate that the changes in body mass are not due to an evolutionary response, and that evolutionary dynamics have not been modified because the fitness-body mass relation has remained constant. Global climate changes have the potential to impact dramatically multiple traits, as well

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