Factors That Determine An Exclusive List Of Driving Forces And Key Drivers

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Introduction Driving forces and key drivers ultimately determine the necessary endpoints for the four distinct scenarios, which is the desired outcome of the Alternative Futures methodology. This chapter expand upon “Phase Two: Explore” and “Phase Three: Synthesize” of the specific methodology defined in chapter two of this thesis. First, the “Explore” phase outlines all driving forces and key forces that affect the research question. Then the “Synthesize” phase narrows the list of driving forces and key factors down to two critical uncertainties. Finally, the resulting two critical uncertainties leads to the creation of the futures matrix.
There are several methods to determine an exclusive list of driving forces and key
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For example, social unrest amongst the Iranian population (S1, see list below), could decrease or increase, thus resulting in a different impact on Iranian leaders’ decision-making criteria. Below is the list of driving forces and key factors, broken down into their primary STEEPM model category.
Driving Forces and Key Factors
 Social
1. Social unrest amongst the Iranian population (S1)
2. Iran’s sense of nationalism (S2)
3. Shia Islam (S3)
4. Regional instability (S4)
5. Sunni/Shia unrest (S5)
6. Iran’s goal to become regional hegemon (S6)
7. Urbanization (S7)
8. Demographic change (S8)
 Technological
1. Iran’s aging air-defense systems (T1)
2. S-300 (T2)
 Economic
1. The state of Iran’s economy (E1)
2. Sanctions levied against Iran (E2)
3. Price of oil (E3)
 Environmental
 Political
1. Iran’s primary national security and foreign policy decision-making leaders’ worldview (P1)
2. U.S. foreign policy towards Iran (P2)
3. European foreign policy towards Iran (P3)
 Military
1. Distrust in rank and file of Iran’s military entities (M1)
2. Islamic State in Levant (ISIL) (M2)
3. Israeli aggression towards Iran (M3)
4. Israeli aggression towards Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) (M4)

Synthesize The objective of the synthesize phase is to narrow the “Driving Forces and Key Factors” list down to the two primary critical uncertainties and create the futures matrix. However, since the primary research questions focuses on how the S-300 will enable Iran’s decision-making,
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