Introduction Driving forces and key drivers ultimately determine the necessary endpoints for the four distinct scenarios, which is the desired outcome of the Alternative Futures methodology. This chapter expand upon “Phase Two: Explore” and “Phase Three: Synthesize” of the specific methodology defined in chapter two of this thesis. First, the “Explore” phase outlines all driving forces and key forces that affect the research question. Then the “Synthesize” phase narrows the list of driving forces and key factors down to two critical uncertainties. Finally, the resulting two critical uncertainties leads to the creation of the futures matrix.
Explore
There are several methods to determine an exclusive list of driving forces and key
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For example, social unrest amongst the Iranian population (S1, see list below), could decrease or increase, thus resulting in a different impact on Iranian leaders’ decision-making criteria. Below is the list of driving forces and key factors, broken down into their primary STEEPM model category.
Driving Forces and Key Factors
Social
1. Social unrest amongst the Iranian population (S1)
2. Iran’s sense of nationalism (S2)
3. Shia Islam (S3)
4. Regional instability (S4)
5. Sunni/Shia unrest (S5)
6. Iran’s goal to become regional hegemon (S6)
7. Urbanization (S7)
8. Demographic change (S8)
Technological
1. Iran’s aging air-defense systems (T1)
2. S-300 (T2)
Economic
1. The state of Iran’s economy (E1)
2. Sanctions levied against Iran (E2)
3. Price of oil (E3)
Environmental
Political
1. Iran’s primary national security and foreign policy decision-making leaders’ worldview (P1)
2. U.S. foreign policy towards Iran (P2)
3. European foreign policy towards Iran (P3)
Military
1. Distrust in rank and file of Iran’s military entities (M1)
2. Islamic State in Levant (ISIL) (M2)
3. Israeli aggression towards Iran (M3)
4. Israeli aggression towards Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) (M4)
Synthesize The objective of the synthesize phase is to narrow the “Driving Forces and Key Factors” list down to the two primary critical uncertainties and create the futures matrix. However, since the primary research questions focuses on how the S-300 will enable Iran’s decision-making,
This case is about a company at the very beginning of some huge expansion initiatives. A feasibility analysis from all departments is just starting to get under way. We will be looking at IT’s role in the analysis, which will include all department’s participation. The departmental executives meet to take account of their current budget needs and to see what departmental initiatives to be instituted to adopt the new strategic plans.
We all know that future cannot be predicted even the weather forecast, which based on accurate data, is not that precise sometimes. Scenario planning provides a solution for organizations to develop in uncertainty by assuming various possibilities about future and help people to make a better decision or plan accordingly.
Since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), or Iran Deal, was signed in Vienna on July 14, 2015, there widespread debate as to whether the agreement would benefit both sides of the pact. Due to the numerous amount of steps taken to ensure Iran’s compliance, the accord between Iran China, France, Russia, the U.K, the U.S, Germany and the EU (P5+1+ Eu countries) provides both sides with comfortable allowances that allow each state to thrive. Though highly contested, as demonstrated from the varying opinions in the supplied articles, the JCPOA solidified the deconstruction of Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which is one of the hardest objectives to achieve in the field of international relations. As shown by the world’s quandary
The complexity of America’s relationship with Iran increased steadily beginning in 1908, when Iran struck oil. The Shah, the king or emperor of Iran, after taking the place of his young predecessor Reza Shah Pahlavi with the help of the CIA, led Iran into a period of extreme wealth and prosperity, the likes of which the Iranian people had never experienced. However, with the growth of wealth in Iran came the growth of Iranian resentment towards the West, specifically the United States. The Iranian’s resented the uneven distribution of wealth that they felt existed and the United State’s influence in “westernizing” their society. In 1963, this growing hatred led to a conflict with the Islamic clergy. The conflict was quickly settled by the Shah, but he was unaware that this dispute was the beginning
* What action plans are needed to overcome the challenges that will arise? How they will prevent it?
There are many factors pushing and pulling when it comes to immigration. One might immigrate to see family, to find a better life, or just to explore. But two things that always play a part in immigration are push and pull factors. For example, in Argentina people are pushed to move because there aren’t many job opportunities. However, while the push factor is in play the pull factor also determines whether a person immigrates or not. Another example is, that the United States has plenty of jobs that pay a lot and are easy to get. There’s just one more piece though, the “so what?” Put simply, people immigrate to the U.S. from Argentina because there are more job opportunities so that they can support their families, and because Argentina is
Separately. Actors are influenced by the context within which they live and work; context is affected by many factors such as instability or ideology, history and Culture; the process of policy making.
Strategic Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
that affect the way businesses operate. How a political trend affect business depends on the type of industry that we are looking at; since some legislations are only directed to a certain type of industry. Economic forces can also cause a crisis in an organization. Some factors such as the unemployment rate, interest rate health care costs and others can definitely affect the economic stability of any organization. Top management must consider political and economic trends that affect the specific
In his paper about Iran’s nuclear program, Barry R. Posen emphasized that Iran’s nuclear program may result on regional and global instability. On regional level, neighboring countries of Iran will feel threatened with Iran’s nuclear power. This situation may lead them to follow Iran’s step in developing nuclear weapons even though they do not have the capability to ensure the security of their nuclear sites. Clearly, nuclear weapons proliferation will put the Middle East in escalating dangerous situation. On global level, the U.S. and its allies are concerned that the situation in the Middle East may harm their national interests. The Middle East is still a prominent producer of oil which is the main energy resource for industrial
This paper is an analysis of a European project carried out by an international Consortium led by the Hungarian organization, Foresee Research Group. A case study of the groups actions will be discussed, and additionally,
The option generation were being derived with two basic goals; the first goal was created to determine Iraq’s’ options in avoiding military action while the second goal was created to give to the President for action (Wirtz, & Russell, 2003). The first option was derived from the historical and political use of WMD from Iraq (Danner, 2005). Knowing that Saddam only threatened to use and did use chemical weapons against weak opponents such as the Kurds, Iran, and Kuwait, the analysis delivered these facts and determined Iraq would not use these weapons against the U.S.A. Moreover, Saddam was self-serving, in that he knew the global players would not allow him to remain in power if WMD were used. Therefore, the factors of deterrence were in place and working (Wirtz, & Russell, 2003). Other options were still available and being
- Because many qualitative aspects are used, the planning can be used as direction instrument. The qualitative aspects indicate into which direction de company wants to develop. By not linking this directly to quantative goals, the company avoids that the planning causes to much inflexibility. This might cause a lack of time and space to make the necessary scientific discoveries. And of course discoveries cannot be planned!
• Both the marketplace and the product had highly uncertain futures. The combination of these two unknowns made for an exponentially uncertain outlook.
When it comes to political factors, the government stability, taxation policy, social welfare policies and trae regulations shoule be considered.