Federal Open Market Committee: A Case Study

The Federal Reserve has the dual job of ensuring price stability and maximum employment, which are contradictory objectives. The Feds try to achieve the goals through monetary policy which determines the demand and supply of money by controlling interest rates. The Fed’s goal is to achieve a natural rate of unemployment of more or less 5%. When the actual unemployment figures are below the natural rate of unemployment, inflation increases and there is a high demand of goods and services propelling the economy with the ensuing labor demands and the pressure it places on wages, which in turn produces inflation. When the Fed is faced with this scenario, it must increase the rates to slow the growth and achieve price stability (contractionary cycle).

The federal reserve has raised interest rates five times in less then twelve months, and the pervious raises are just barely beginning to take effect. The previous raises averaged around a quarter percentage point, and since these raises failed to slow the economy, Greenspan, unable to take anymore chances doubled the previous with a promise of more to come.

During the Federal Reserve meeting in April 2016, the range was left unchanged for federal funds at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). Labor markets experience growth confirmed by policy makers, yet economic activity was monitored as being slow (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The risks associated with the financial developments of the country have ceased (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The average percentage of interest rate in the U.S. averaged at 5.8. March of 1980 a record high was recorded at 20% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The lowest interest rates were recorded in the month of December 2008 at 0.25% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016).

The last time the Fed raised interest rates (to 5.25%) was in 2006. This move was soon reversed as the 8 trillion dollar housing market bust sparked the global financial crises. About 8.7 million jobs (about 6%) were lost, unemployment rose to about 10% nationally leaving many households with less to spend and higher debt.

Although business leaders may not have a crystal ball to help them plan for the future, they do have access to a wide range of Federal Reserve publications that can help identify recent and current trends and what these economists believe will take place in the coming months. Given the lingering effects of the Great Recession of 2008 on the American economy today, identifying the future economic outlook for America using this type of freely available information therefore represents a timely and valuable enterprise. To this end, this paper provides a review of relevant publications to identify the Federal Reserve's current assessment of economic activity and financial markets, its current view about inflation and various monetary tools that have been used to stabilize the economic and prices in recent years. Finally, an analysis of the economic outlook for the next 12- to 18-month period is followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.

During the Federal Reserve meeting in April 2016, the range was left unchanged for federal funds at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). Labor markets experience growth confirmed by policy makers, yet economic activity was monitored as being slow (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The risks associated with the financial developments of the country have ceased (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The average percentage of interest rate in the U.S. averaged at 5.8. March of 1980 a record high was recorded at 20% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016). The lowest interest rates were recorded in the month of December 2008 at 0.25% (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2016).

The Federal Reserve System has three branches: the Board of Governors, The Federal Open Market Committee, and Reserve Banks. The Federal Reserve System (Fed) supplies and regulates America’s money to all the banks. The Board of Governors is the main authority of the three branches of the Fed, and it supervises other banks. The Federal Open Market Committee is the most prominent policymaker of the three branches and regulates the supply of money in the economy. Federal Reserve Banks serve other banks, this is why they are called banker’s banks. There are twelve Federal Reserve Banks which represent different states and these “districts” share data for monetary policies. The future role of monetary policy is vital

The Federal Open Market Committee in the Federal Reserve System is who determines the monetary policies. The Federal Open Market Committee reviews economic and financial developments and determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy during their eight meetings per year. The Federal Reserve plays no role in determining fiscal policy. Fiscal policy refers to an economic strategy that utilizes the taxing and spending powers of the government to impact a nation's economy. It is different from monetary policy, which is usually set by a central bank and focuses on market interest rates and the money

When considering how to set interest rates, the Fed takes many things into consideration. Firstly, it pays attention to the economy and how well things are going. If the economy is performing well, the Fed will raise short term interest rates to check against inflation. This slows the money supply, as business are less interested in borrowing at the higher rates (bankrate). It also takes into account the unemployment rate. Low unemployment is a signal that the economy is performing at capacity, and could therefore be subject to demand exceeding supply. When

The Federal Reserve is the Central bank of America and act as the lender of last resort. The central bank was founded in 1913 by the then elected members of congress. The Federal Reserve board is comprised of 12 members. The head of the Federal Reserve is the board of governors. Janet L. Yellen is the current Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Janet Yellen also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee which makes up part of the central bank, the System's primary monetary policymaking body.

The primary objective of the Federal Reserve is to stabilize the monetary environment. The Federal Reserve has focused on achieving price stability and maximum employment while avoiding a recession. Within the goals of the dual mandate, the Fed encourages a target inflation rate of 2 percent and the unemployment rate between 4.5 percent and 5.0 percent to maintain a healthy economy. As of today, the inflation rate is 2.3 percent and the unemployment rate is 4.2 percent.

The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate that Federal Reserve uses to trade funds with banks. Changes in this rate can trigger a chain of events that can be beneficial or devastating to the economy. If a bank is charged a higher interest rate to trade money or take out a loan, then the increase will be passed on to their customers, causing them to pay higher transaction fees or more interest. Each month, the Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine the federal funds rate. This in turn affects other short term interest rates. The determining rate immediately impacts the rates at which banks borrow money and the interest rates the banks use to charge their customers on loans. If the rate raise is too high, then money flow drops

To stabilize the economy bonds are used which release money into the market. The responsibility of the Central Bank is to maintain the health of the banking system and regulating the purchase and sale of bonds. The interest rates are controlled to balance the markets. According to the Monetary Policy Report to Congress, “The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained a target range of 0 to ¼ percent for the federal funds rate throughout the second half of 2009 and early 2010” while representing forecasted economic decisions to rationalize low levels for longer times on the federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, 2010). Purchases were still being made by the Fed’s to result in improvements to the economy through focusing on mortgages, the real estate market, and the credit market. Predictions by the Federal Open Market Committee depicted low levels on the federal funds rates in early 2010 which would continue for some time while over time the economy would see growth, a rise in inflation, and a decline in unemployment. Feds were in agreement though they expected the recovery process to be slower. Purchases by the Federal reserve were slowed, “$300 billion of Treasury securities were completed by October” and “the purchases of $1.25 trillion of MBS and about $175 billion of agency debt” were suppose to be finished the first quarter of 2010 (Federal Reserve, 2010).

Statute of the ESCB (for the ECB), and in the Federal Reserve Act (for the FED). Interventions in

On September 18, 2013 the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In addition, the committee agreed to continue its monthly $85 billion purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent. Inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored .