Final Project : Seasonal Trading Patterns

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Final Project – Seasonal Trading Patterns
Timothy Brady
Southern New Hampshire University
25 January 2015

QSO510 – Quantitative Analysis
Professor Ozcan

Topic Selection
For my paper, I wanted to analyze the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and evaluate patterns in trading. As an investor, one of the fundamental measures that I use is the tendency of commodities to follow seasonal patterns due to the nature of planting and harvesting periods, supply/demand, and general weather patterns which all impact the price of commodities. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence the effect in investment returns for different markets.
Thesis
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the well-known methods for measuring the future value of stock prices. According to this hypothesis, the market is efficient if its prices are formed on the basis of all disposable information. According to EMH if there is a possibility to predict the future price of shares, that is the first sign of an inefficient market.
The existence of calendar or time anomalies is a contradiction to the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The weak form of the EMH states that the market is efficient in past price and volume information and stock movements cannot be predicted using this historic information. This form infers that stock returns are time invariant, that is, there is no identifiable short-term time based pattern. The existence of seasonality

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