Financial Modelling - Lecture 1

Debt to Equity ℎℎ ′ 9,771+1,885 Dividend Payout Inventory Turnover = 0.069 Working backwards from the income tax expense, we estimate income tax rate to be 34%. NOPAT is then Operating profit taxes, or 3,137*(1-0.34) = 0.319 Average

Before moving forward to compute the present value of these cash flows, a terminal value is required to forecast the long term value of the company after 5 years. . Following formula is used to calculate the terminal value.

Horizontal analysis allows side by side comparisons on a year to year basis to determine the performance from one year to the next. The company decides on standards to compare the results of the analysis. Standards are researched by checking competitors, internet research of general industry guidelines or standards created from past experience in the company.

$135,000 $90,000 TOTAL REVENUE $3,136,500 $2,352,375 $1,568,250 Expences TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS $454,000 $340,500 $227,000 TOTAL FIXED COSTS $1,403,000 $1,403,001 $1,403,002 TOTAL EXPENSE BEFORE IT $1,857,000 $1,743,501 $1,630,002 EBIT $1,279,500 $608,874 -$61,752 Depreciation $320,000 $320,001 $320,002 EBITDA $1,599,500 $928,875 $258,250 Furnishing Interest $110,000 $110,000 $110,000 20yr Mortgage Interest $182,000 $182,000 $182,000 TOTAL INTEREST $292,000 $292,000 $292,000 TAXES (40%) $395,000.00 $126,749.60 -$141,500.80 Furnishing Principal $180,160 $180,160 $180,160 20yr Mortgage Principal $49,713 $49,713 $49,713 TOTAL PRINCIPAL $229,873 $229,873 $229,873 NET INCOME $362,627 -$39,749 -$442,124 DIVIDEND PAYMENT $29,010 -$3,180 -$35,370 RETAINED EARNINGS $333,617 -$36,569 EBIT/INTEREST 4.38 2.09 (0.21) EBITDA/INTEREST 5.48 3.18 0.88 BURDEN $675,121.67 $675,121.67 $675,121.67 EBIT/BURDEN 1.90 0.90 (0.09) ROE= Net Income/OE (H1) 32.97% -3.61% -40.19% Revenue Estimates Revenue Item 100% Monthly 75%

Account W/P Common Common # Title Ref. Balance Size Balance Size Amount Percentage REVENUE 40000 Sales 246,172,918.44 102.33% 245,213,452.88 106.40% -959,465.56 -0.39% 41000 Sales Returns 4,497,583.20 1.87% 13,600,220.89 5.90% 9,102,637.69 202.39% 42000 Warranty Exp 1,100,281.48 0.46% 1,158,128.47 0.50% 57,846.99 5.26% Net Sales 240,575,053.76 100.00% 230,455,103.52 100.00% (10,119,950.24) -4.21% EXPENSES 50000 COGS 141,569,221.61 58.85% 130,246,645.26 56.52% (11,322,576.35) -8.00% Gross Margin 99,005,832.15 41.15% 100,208,458.26 43.48% 1,202,626.11 1.21% GA-7.4

In order to ascertain how well a company is performing, analyses must be done in regard to the business being stable, including its’ ability to pay debts, how much cash or other liquid assets are available, and whether the organization is viable enough to continue operations. These analyses typically look at income statements, balance sheets, and statements of cash flow, where current and past performance will be studied with the goal of predicting how the company will perform in the future.

ratio of 0.25. The cost of equity is 12 percent and the cost of debt is 7 percent. The corporate tax rate is

Predicting and managing cash flow. To manage cash flow effectively you must keep a watchful eye on finances. So the business owner should be forecasting and revising their cash flow forecast on a daily basis however, if the finances of the business are more stable then forecasting cash flow weekly or monthly is enough. Cash flow is so important to a business because identity’s shortfalls in cash balances in advance.

The free cash flow method is used to gauge “a company’s cash flow beyond that necessary to grow at the current rate… [to ensure companies] make capital expenditures to continue to exist and to grow” (Drake, n.d.). Calculation of free cash flows utilizes various components, including a firm’s value, cash flow forecasts, a firm’s capital structure, the cost of capital, and/or discounted cash flows.

(Compound value solving for I) at what annual rate would the following have to be investe

This case starts with raw financial statements and then a) develops standardized financial statements, b) constructs a statement of cash flows, c) builds all the key ratios, d) links forecast inputs to future financial statements, and e) builds discounted cash flow and residual income valuation models based on the forecasts. The result is a simplified version of eVal4, the spreadsheet model that is provided with “Equity Valuation and Analysis” by Russell Lundholm and Richard Sloan, but one that you should completely understand (because you built it yourself!). To save you some time, many of the cells are completed; you only need to

(5 points) In a world with no frictions (i.e., taxes, etc.), having debt is always better because it increases the value of the firm/projet.

A discounted cash flow analysis measures the value of a company todays based on calculated predications of how much money they will make in the future. This valuation method is used to determine how profitable an investment is. To conduct a DCF analysis, I used future free cash flows predictions ranging from years 2016 through 2026 to get an estimated present value. My ultimate goal in conducting a discounted cash flow analysis for this project is to value to the equity of the stock and find the stock price for the Danaher Corporation.

-Brokerage firms manage and facilitate the purchase of stocks, bonds, and other types of investments.

This project evaluates the discounted Net Present Value which shows the estimated cash flow. The cash flow forecast is for 10 year which incorporates International complexities as well as the cost of capital.