Forecasting Effects on Supply Chain

However, forecast errors will also lead to unhappy customers, lost sales, and excessive inventory. To minimize errors, retailers should find the right demand forecast. Retailers do not want to have a lot of inventory sitting in the back room and too little inventory that will cause out of stock. Holding huge inventory will cause a retailer to have more expenses and decrease their profit if item is not sold especially if the product is innovative type like electronics. The challenge is to balance the inventory with demand. Communication and contribution from people in functional area is also important to create better information and improve overall accuracy. At this time, customer satisfaction will start to decrease. For example, MPRNews says one of Target loyal customer, Ann Hendricks, she is disappointed with target store in St.Paul. “Too many times, she says that store is out of the milk, coffee, bread, pasta and other staples she wants. At Target, sometimes the whole section of cheeses is blank. There's nothing in there” (Moylan). A loyal customer like Ann Hendricks goes to the Lunds & Byerlys store in downtown St. Paul to buy her grocery

Another assumption is that the shipments are going to be made exactly as they forecasted. It is important to note that in the

The retailers had to estimate their customers’ demands well in advance of the selling season and place bulk orders for each season’s inventory. This involved high risk for the retailers as over-estimation would lead to unsold stock; whereas under-estimation led to stock outs and loss of potential sales.

The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer

(i.e. products that they get to order only once because of long supplier lead times). First they determine a forecast for an item and then they have a process for converting that forecast into an order quantity.

For instance (ceteris paribus), if the transportation of the HP products were air shipped, and the lead time passed from four and a half weeks to three days, logically stock levels would decrease. The same would happen if we reduce the time between orders or the level of satisfaction that we want to assurance to our customers.

A supply chain is a net work of firms. Thus, each firm in the chain should build its own supply chains to support the competitive priorities of its services or products. Two distinct designs used to competitive advantage are efficient supply chains and responsive supply chains. Efficient supply chains work best in environments where demand is highly predictable. The focus of the supply chain is on efficient flows of services and materials keeping inventories to a minimum. The firm’s competitive priorities are low-cost operations, consistent quality, and on-time delivery. Responsive supply chains designed to react quickly in order to hedge against uncertainties in demand. Work best when firms offer a great variety of services or products and demand predictability is low. Typical competitive priorities are development speed, fast delivery times, customization, variety, volume flexibility, and top quality. Tables below show the environments and design features that best suit each design.

Supply chains manage the movement of products from the acquisition of raw materials through production and finally distribution to the end user. A properly designed supply chain can create many opportunities to drive down cost and increase revenue opportunities. In order to create a supply chain that is sustainable and flexible it is necessary to identify and align company goals and initiatives with the manufacturing and distribution of products.

Lead times act as a multiplier with regard to demand fluctuations. Even small changes in demand result in either high stock outs or high holding costs due to the time delay in delivery, since the order quantity cannot be adjusted during the lead time. Another factor is demand forecasting. Retailer, distributor and manu-facturer use different forecasting methods (in most cases not very sophisticated), leading to different results and biasing the demand forecast at the end of the supply chain.

* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.

Mellat-Parast and Spillan (2014) defines supply chain management as the method of handling material and information moves from the beginning, through the organization, and to the end-user. This is a very important factor of organizational strategy.

Lead time varies significantly, which affects the inventory cycle. The plant has to set a safety stock that will protect the production against stock outs, vehicle breakdowns, weather related delays and the shortage of supply from farmers and hogs barns.

Fixing the forecasts allows to build the communication between the different departments of a firm (communication between the operational staff, the financial staff, etc.). It should be also a guide for financial planning and monitoring the activity and the performance. It is a tool to evaluate profitability and productivity, to identify an eventual gap between actuals and OP (operating plan), and to fix it.

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

Based on the case, there were two fundamental changes to standardize and improve the accuracy of forecasts. The first area was to "switch the focus of the focus of the forecasting process from sell-in to sell-through". This meant tracking closely what was sold in one region and shipped from another made forecasting market demand a more accurate exercise. The second area centered on ignoring capacity constraints to estimate demand. In the past, "forecasting was affected by perceptions of present and future supply chain capacity".