Forecasting

1330 Words Jun 21st, 2008 6 Pages
Forecasting Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the information gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will assist in the achievement of certain goals. Forecasting involves taking historical date and using it to project future data with a mathematical model. Forecasts are extensively used to support business decisions and direct the work of operations managers. In this paper I will introduce different types of forecasting techniques.
What is Forecasting Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. Forecasting is a statement about the future. “Operations management is designed to support forecasted performances
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This technique is part of a set of techniques that are useful in situations where past data do not exist, causal relationships have not been identified, or some major change has occurred in the forecasting context which is not accounted for by other techniques. Evidence as to the effectiveness of using these methods by themselves is mixed, although using them can provide good forecasts, especially in uncertain environments. The objective of these techniques is to provide rational, honest, and systematic estimates. (Marketing Profs) Some advantages of jury of executive opinion is it can be done easily and quickly without a lot of elaborate statistical manipulations and it incorporates a variety of opinions from executives. (Sales Forecasting) Delphi method. The Delphi method gathers a panel of experts from different fields to comment upon the research of others in their own and different disciplines. It is typically used to arrive at high-level predictions. The aim is to account for the complex factors that affect long-range forecasting by generating a wide range of possible future scenarios. The method also claims to safeguard against the tendency of group discussions on these kinds of matters to arrive at a consensus. (Delphi Method) Sales force composite. A method of developing a forecast that uses the opinions of each member of the field sales staff regarding how much the individual expects

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