Forecasting Method

* Time series- use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values.

Planning: The process of anticipating future events and conditions and determining the best way to achieve organizational objectives. Marketing Planning:

Forecasting is part of a company’s future planning as it attempts to estimate future demand for its product or services. Forecasting is usually measured in specific time periods (months, weeks, etc), given a desired level of accuracy, and assigned a unit of forecasting (sales in units or dollars) (Download Reports 2011). PepsiCo bases its sales forecasts on two main factors: changes in consumer tastes, particularly the rise health consciousness among consumers; and how legal regulations may impact operations, such more federal and local laws

The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer

The challenge in planning is that planning is essentially forecasting future actions and events. Most

* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.

Forecasting is an attempt to predict the future with as little error as possible. There are three levels of reasoning that must be considered (1) Data and information about the past; (2) Known relationships among the variables; (3) Forecasting should be approached systematically and thoughtfully (Lewis, McGrath & Seidel, 2011, p. 83). Epidemiology produces rates that can be incorporated into various types of

3. Market Share: forecasting will help in identifying the size of the market share and market potential will aid in the manufacturing and distribution process. Will also aid in proper utilization and eliminate waste.

In an attempt to improve this model, we attempt to do a multiple regression model predicting SALES based on CALLS, TIME, and YEARS.

Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner, 2009).

WOW! Mattie I can imagine the difficulties that both of you went through the struggle. That is a big forecasting issue that you have faced. My husband is also our sole provider and if anything does happen it will be a big forecast in my life as well. I would definitely have to worry about my spending and limit the spending for groceries and utilities thats used.

Fixing the forecasts allows to build the communication between the different departments of a firm (communication between the operational staff, the financial staff, etc.). It should be also a guide for financial planning and monitoring the activity and the performance. It is a tool to evaluate profitability and productivity, to identify an eventual gap between actuals and OP (operating plan), and to fix it.

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

Forecasters use these mental maps to organize their observations of directional information. Since innovations rarely apply to the entire marketplace, information must be tagged for the appropriate price point, category and classification. In this way, forecasters turn random bits of data into useful information for decision support, points and style directions.

Based on the case, there were two fundamental changes to standardize and improve the accuracy of forecasts. The first area was to "switch the focus of the focus of the forecasting process from sell-in to sell-through". This meant tracking closely what was sold in one region and shipped from another made forecasting market demand a more accurate exercise. The second area centered on ignoring capacity constraints to estimate demand. In the past, "forecasting was affected by perceptions of present and future supply chain capacity".