Q1.
If we want to do the stand-alone-valuation for Framedia at the end of 2005, we should calculate the free cash flow to firm after 2005 and the residual value of Framedia and then discount all the cash flows to the end of 2005.
Because it’s stand-alone-valuation we should do, we need to value the whole firm and then compare the stand-alone-value with the synergistic value after the merger. So it’s the firm value we should compare with. We can get the effective tax rate by dividing the profit before taxation by tax payment and the tax rate is 30%.
According to the formula:
FCFF= Net Income + Depreciation + Interest Expense – Change in net working capital – CapEx
We can get the free cash flows to firm every year after 2005:
2006F
2007F
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And if Framedia is merged with Target Media, it will be even harder for Focus Media to acquire the new company.
Secondly, Focus Media can wait for cooling down of stock market which will ultimately depress Framedia’s expectation. But no one can anticipate the future movement of the stock market and the change of investors’ mood. If Framedia go public successfully, the acquisition will cost Focus Media more money.
Although we have estimated the firm value in Q1 and the result (129.88 million) is higher than the price Tan Zhi proposed which is 110 million, the value is unrealistic high and sensitive to changes in input.
Because the rapid sales growth and change in gross margin rate in 2005 should attribute largely to the serial acquisitions which are not repeatable in the future, the growth rate of sales and gross margin rate should be set at lower number than projected. If we keep the data of 2006 unchanged since it’s near future and adjust the growth rate in 2007 to 40% and in 2008 to 30% and keep the gross margin at a constant rate – 50% after 2006, the projected financial statements will be below.
2006F
2007F
2008F
Sales
40
56
72.8
Gross Profit
20
28
36.4
Profit from Operation
11
13
16.4
Net Income
7
8.4
10.7
And the cash flow will be:
2006F
2007F
2008F
NI
7
8.4
10.7
Interest Expense
0.7
0.7
0.7
Depreciation
2
3
4
Change in working capital
-1
0
-1
CapEx
5
6
6
FCFF
5.7
6.1
10.4
So the firm
* If we surmise that the company’s specialist’s predictions of 4% on market growth along with renewing current and or adding more customer contracts then the profits should be as follows:
When forecasting Polymold Division’s financial statements there are some assumptions that need to be taken into account before projecting the numbers. One of the assumptions is
From 1976 to 1982 the compound annual growth in net sales was 18.5% and the compound annual growth of after tax profit was 25.9%. Therefore, a 10% net sales growth shown in the proforma financial data seems reasonable.
• Net profit margin has been negative and no major patterns over the 9 year period on net profit since the trend of the industry is based mostly on economic factors, and whether or not they secure contracts. Due to high percentage of COGS they are only left with a net profit of $980 or
Using the assumptions given in the case, all elements of income statement and balance sheet can be projected for next three years 2010, 2011 and 2012. Sales cycle of the products of the company is such that sales of a particular product increases initially for few years and then starts to decline as the new technology
in our calculations, as this company exhibited dramatic value differences to others in the sample, (likely to skew our results and prove misleading). Using the average of the revised sample field for each ratio, we inserted Torrington’s values where appropriate to generate an entity value. The findings generated two values for Torrington, 606 million and 398 million. Taking the average of these two numbers, Torrington exhibited a relative value of 502.41 million. Because of the lack of related information given in the case, and the often large differences in measures amongst competitors, different capital structures, internal management strategies, there remained many unknowns in our model. We decided it would be best to use this valuation to reaffirm our assumptions in our DCF valuation. (Please see exhibits)
FCF is calculated as:EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital - Capital ExpenditureIt can also be
Using the assumptions given in the case, all elements of income statement and balance sheet can be projected for next three years 2010, 2011 and 2012. Sales cycle of the products of the company is such that sales of a particular product increases initially for few years and then starts to decline as the new
For calculations of the acquisition price, the P/E is taken to be 8.6. The acquisition price is calculated by multiplying this value with the historical average of net income. Thus, the acquisition price comes out to be $186,215,800, which is $189,186,673 less than the enterprise value.
* First, we calculate the Net Operating Profit after Tax, which is equals to EBIT×1-t.
Valuation calculations are the attached tables (Appendix 1 and 2).Assumptions made: Assumed rates of period 1985-1991: Inflation rate of Tunisa (assumed) Subsidized interest rate Tunisia (assumed) Opportunity cost of capital for Prince (%) Corporate income tax rate Tunisia (%) Corporate income tax rate UK (%) Jersey D/E ratio(assumed) 8.50% 8.50% 25% 43.80% 35.00% 13.3% Inflation rate of UK Spot exchange rate JERSEY Beta UK Market risk premiun Riskfree rate UKCorporate Long Term Borrowing Rate 5% 1.009 1.34 7% 9.6% 9.9%
The free cash flow method is used to gauge “a company’s cash flow beyond that necessary to grow at the current rate… [to ensure companies] make capital expenditures to continue to exist and to grow” (Drake, n.d.). Calculation of free cash flows utilizes various components, including a firm’s value, cash flow forecasts, a firm’s capital structure, the cost of capital, and/or discounted cash flows.
The intrinsic value of Facebook stock was very difficult to find, since the company is relatively new and has been growing at an extreme rate. Based on the most recent sale of Facebook stock via a private transaction the per share price was $44 in March. However, based on the DCF analysis by professor Aswath Damodaran the intrinsic value of a single Facebook share would be $32.44. The problem is whenever using DCF analysis; the analysis is very sensitive to all assumptions uses, which were plenty in the case of Facebook. The price talk from underwriters varied immensely within the time from of February when the Red Herring was filed, all the way to May. At the very beginning, price talks were anywhere from $20 – mid $30’s. They were set to offer 337,415,352 shares. As the broader market continued in bullish trend and momentum for the Facebook IPO became greater. Price talks now shifted to $28-$35 range. Knowing that demand for the stock was said to be growing it was noted that many IPO are priced conservative to leave room for a pop on the first day of trading. On May 11 CNBC made a statement along the lines that demand was much greater than supply for the stock. Shortly after on May 14, the price talks had now moved to $34-$38 range and now offering 421,233,615 shares, the additional shares were all of insiders. This would set the companies valuation at
A discounted cash flow analysis measures the value of a company todays based on calculated predications of how much money they will make in the future. This valuation method is used to determine how profitable an investment is. To conduct a DCF analysis, I used future free cash flows predictions ranging from years 2016 through 2026 to get an estimated present value. My ultimate goal in conducting a discounted cash flow analysis for this project is to value to the equity of the stock and find the stock price for the Danaher Corporation.
Overall, Viacom seems like a much more viable target, for the main reason of having much greater similarities with Paramount as compared to QVC.