Future of the U.S. Dollar
Today, the world economy, after witnessing the greatest hit in 70 years, is wondering what life will look like after the storm has settled. It is grappling with the fundamentals of unemployment, increasing inflation, current account deficits, negative growth, and zero interest rates along with it, depreciating the value of money. In the midst of all this the future of the U.S. dollar is uncertain. Will the dollar maintain its reserve currency status even after its depreciation and regain faith of the nations? Or will it be replaced by some other currency, shifting the power balances among the nations forever?
The U.S. dollar peaked in value in 2000-2001 and has been in a significant decline ever since. There was a relatively brief period in 2008 when the dollar rebounded quite sharply due to the worldwide financial crisis and economic meltdown, when there was a global rush to the safety of U.S. treasury securities. But since then, the dollar has resumed its long-term downtrend. In the recent years the dollar has been improving relative to other currencies, becausee of the decline in those other currencies.
With President Obama’s most unprecedented spending plans in history, as well as trillion-dollar budget deficits and the potential to more than double the U.S. national debt in the next 5-10 years, there is now a widespread speculation that the dollar is headed for new all-time lows and a possible collapse.
As a result, we are seeing and hearing
dollar was close to an eight year shortage against the real, having lost more than 33% of its value during 2009 alone. During the past 12 month era, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar (USD) has diverse from a low of BRL R $1.5310 to in height of BRL $1.7790. During 2010, the United States dollar typically kept an everyday exchange rate between (BRL) R$1.70 and (BRL) R$1.80, occasionally reducing below the (BRL) R$1.70 level.
Even though some believe that the dollar is valued too high, it does not mean it should fall against the US dollar in the future. The Canadian dollar in recent years shows that it is almost impossible to accurately predict the evolution of exchange rate. Exchange rates depend on too many things. Economic and political conditions in the United States are some factors. The adaptation of the Canadian economy to a stronger Canadian dollar. Although Canadian dollar varies, I see good from it in the near future but it will not surpass the American
In the similar time period Japanese Yen has been in the third position with a turnover position of 20.8% in the year 2005. The overall financial market currency structure has seen a decline in the turnover position of the US Dollar to 85% from a strong position of 88%. Similarly a decline has been in the position of the Japanese Yen to 17.2% from an acceptable turnover position of 20.8%. While considering the trend of these two currencies during the period starting from 2007 and ending at 2010, it is to be noted that minute changes were seen in the two different currencies with regards to their share in foreign currency market. The US Dollar witnessed a continued fall to 84.9% from its previous 85.6% however, the Japanese Yen saw a rise from its previous position of 17.2% to an increase of1.8% that is 19%. During the same time period the US dollar and Japanese Yen were the second most traded paired currencies and was traded at around 14% of the overall foreign currency market second to the US Dollar and Euro pair. Conclusion The foreign exchange market has seen considerable changes owing to the global financial crisis. It is to be seen how different factors like economy and global politics further impact strong currencies like the US Dollar and other competing currencies such as the Japanese Yen.
Although the Yuan is seen as the new alternative there is one more currency lurking and becoming to be seen as a new way to exchange money, and that’s Bitcoin. Bitcoin is an indented source where individuals create accounts to buy accents in order to have credit. That credit is later use for other individuals to purchase goods anywhere in the world without paying fees to any government bank in order to exchange their currency. But is still works about the same way that the Federal Reserve works since it’s money that it’s not back up by any materialize product as gold and silver and instead just faith that the investors will continue to support it. But the Federal Reserve and Bitcoin still are different since Bitcoin is not support by any government nor has any centralize bank running it. This causes mayor impact to the U.S, since companies and countries might no longer have to go and exchange their currency in dollars and may do it straight forward from one currency to another. In time, the dollar would lose value and the U.S economy may change drastically.
“A weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, and a weak economy leads to a weak nation.” – Ross Perot. The words of the 1992 Presidential candidate still ring true today, and in fact they have since the abolition of the gold standard in 1971 by President Nixon. Ever since that warm August day the United States has been on a death plunge into immaculate amounts of debt. However, by the establishment of the silver standard in the way I will explain to you today, makes it clear that action on such a policy must be taken.
There are many reasons why the dollar would fluctuate. The strength and weakness of a dollar depends on a number of factors such as inflation and trade deficits. To save the economy from inflation, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates causing the economy to slow and the value of the dollar to decrease. Trade deficits can also devalue the US dollar. Although the high trade deficit is causing the dollar to fluctuate, the deficit could be a way to make the dollar stronger. Because we are borrowing from other countries, with our interest rates being higher, they would want to buy the US dollar to invest in the interest rate market.
With inflation increasing around one percent each year, the value of the dollar decreases. This
The financial crisis of 2008 has been described as the worst financial crisis the world has seen since the great depression, but there are now murmurings of the potential for an even greater financial crisis, a currency crisis, caused by the demise of the US Dollar. The Dollar has been the reserve currency of the world since it took over from the Pound at the end of world war two, but we examine if it is about to crash spectacularly?
Making an absolute decision whether a stronger U.S. dollar is good or bad is tough call. I will have to agree with you that it can be good and bad for the U.S. economy. A stronger U.S. dollar would definitely enable U.S. citizens to purchase more of both domestic and imported products. You brought up valid point about the unaffordability of U.S. exports for other countries if the U.S. has a stronger dollar. Another factor to also consider is the possibility of a stronger US dollar having a negative effect on employment for those who work in export related industries. If other countries can't afford the products we make, our workers will be let go from their jobs. Now in a society without jobs, the US takes on the burden of more citizens unemployed.
since 2000 (Edwards, S., 2005).” As a result of the increase in foreign demand for U.S. assets, Americans have had access to foreign investment enabling the United States to function with large deficits for years. Looking forward, the United States dollar and the economic health of the country is very dependent on foreign investment in U.S. assets. A potential risk looms in the chance that Asian central banks might lower their demand in U.S. assets resulting in a sharp decline in the U.S.
The US dollar is used in the majority of the international transactions and therefore that happens to the American economy, will influence the international financial resources. Dollars bring big consequences both for the USA and for other countries. The economy of many countries depends on currency dollar. The increase in its course reduces the volume of the income in dollars for the country. And change of US dollar more considerably, than change of an exchange rate of the country. On the
Another impact the euro could have on the American economy is by effecting the exchange rate of the dollar. Although there is great potential for the euro to have a positive impact on American business, there still is much uncertainty regarding the long-term effect it will have on the dollar's role as the world's dominant currency. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan in his remarks on the euro on November 30, 2001 states that, "clearly the
The controller of the Irish division does have a valid point when stating that the U.S. dollar is in a vulnerable position due to the fact that its trade deficit is currently in excess of $100 billion and growing. (see Exhibit 1). While Universal Circuits’ chief financial officer, Joe Merrill, is correct when stating that the dollar is in the middle of its twenty-year range, he never mentioned which countries currency he was comparing it to. When compared to the Irish punt, which the controller and the company have a vested interest in it is clear that over the last
Likewise, Edwards (2005) suggests that “since the U.S. current account deficit poses no threat, there are no fundamental reasons to justify a significant fall in the value of the dollar” (p. 212). Bertaut, Kamin, and Thomas (2009) observe that “with the real multilateral
In the present day, the world's economy is ever-changing and adjusting. Many different reasons control the reasons for this. The future of currency is something that can only be predicted and is not guaranteed. However, there are many determing factors behind the changes that can take place. Asia and North America are two continents that have economies that have recently changed or are in the midst of change.