Future Southern Timber Supply : Comparing Risi, Fea, And Forisk Long Term Projections

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Future Southern timber supply: comparing RISI, FEA, and Forisk long-term projections
Overview
This document compares and contrasts three future views on timber supply in the southern region of the US as projected by three third-party forecasting service providers – Forest Economic Advisors (FEA), Resource Information Systems Inc. (RISI), and Forisk. All three forecasts lean heavily on data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) National Program and Resource Planning Assessments (RPAs) in their projections. In addition, Forisk explicitly breaks down softwood growing stock inventory into pulp, CNS, and sawtimber inventories whereas FEA and RISI are explicit only about sawtimeber and overall softwood growing stock inventories. This further complicates the comparison among the three providers but allows us to gain some insights on the relative shares of the three above components of timber inventory in the South as projected by Forisk.
Main Assumptions
Area
Both FEA and RISI include 13 states in their forecasts. Forisk incorporates only 11 of the states included in the other two forecast providers, excluding Kentucky in the East South Central sub-region and Oklahoma in the West South Central sub-region. Forisk uses Timber Mart South stumpage prices and those are not available for Oklahoma and Kentucky.
Inventory
As already mentioned, all the three forecasts use FIA and RPA data to estimate initial inventory levels as well as to project future inventory levels.

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