Gary King Ecological Inference Theory

The Funnel of Causality model describes voting behaviour in terms of socio-demographics, party identification, issues, and candidates. In this essay I will focus on issues because they can be compared between countries. An issue is essentially a problem that is perceived to be important, and there is an actor with “ownership” of the issue, meaning that there is someone who is thought to be “the best man for the job” so to speak. The economy isn’t an issue because you can’t have “ownership” over the economy. Issues are important because they explain a lot about voting behaviour.

When George Washington was elected President in 1789 by members of the fledgling United States of America, he was setting into motion a tradition that has stood the test of over 225 years - the presidential election. Even as the United States has seen dozens of wars, made hundreds of scientific advances, and selected thousands of politicians to seats everywhere from small town councils to Congress, the principles of the election have remained the same; the people band together to determine who will best protect their interests at home and assure that the US will always remain on top in foreign policy. Oftentimes, this is found to be a difficult decision, as public opinion is constantly wavering. One sees this in action particularly during the 1992 election - a battle of wills between Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Ross Perot; complete with lead changes, major vote swings, and Perot’s unprecedented initial success - ultimately a false alarm to the bipartisan establishment.

In 2012 President Obama spoke to a group of people at a fund raiser event in Texas and seemed optimistic that Texas would soon be a battleground for the Democratic Party (Parker, 2013). Unless Democrats possess an extraordinary strategic plan this could prove to be a challenging task to accomplish. Recent voting in Texas has faithfully been favorable toward the Republican ticket for over 30 years (Parker, 2013). There has been a widespread margin in the percentage of votes between Republican and Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Currently Republicans occupy all elected statewide offices, both state

* Smith, Kieth. "On Gerrymandering and Its Effects." Web log post. Political Science at University of the Pacific. Pacificpoliticalscience.wordpress.com, 2 Nov. 2011. Web. 04 Mar. 2013. <http://pacificpoliticalscience.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/on-gerrymandering-and-its-effects/>.

A congressional district is an electoral division of a state, electing and entitled to send one member to the United State House of Representatives. Districting is the initial set district, whereas redistricting is the process of drawing district boundaries after the decennial census and new population changes. Redistricting is a political process that affects the fortunes of incumbent House members, state legislators,

Although Burr was never able to reach 50% in the polls, he exceeded that threshold on Election Day and defeated Ross by almost 6%. In order to analyze the political climate further, I will be comparing the exit polls for both Trump vs. Clinton and Burr vs Ross. This will help explain why Ross was entering the Senate race with a disadvantage despite media pundits arguing that higher turnout in presidential election years should benefit Ross. Although Five Thirty Eight gave Clinton the slight edge to defeat Trump in North Carolina, Trump’s was able to carry the state with a modest performance. Although Real Clear Politics had Burr winning by an average of 2%, that was certainly below the 5.7% final result. In a three way race between Trump, Clinton, and Johnson, Trump was predicted to win North Carolina by about 1%. The actual results, however, showed Trump winning by about 4%. Although this paper is focusing on the Senate race, it’s certainly important to note the impact that a presidential candidate can have on the electoral map, particularly

The electoral process is effected and heavily influenced by social class and geography of The United States. Within Andrew Gellman’s book, red state blue state rich state poor state, he expresses the relationship of red-state and blue-state, and how it correlates with social and economic standards. The contributions of rich-poor divide, geography, and polarization sets the tone in the electoral process. The discernment of Gelman’s thesis can be viewed through the 2016 election, as well as the unexpected.

A notion exists that the “independent voter” is also an independent thinker, researcher, and analyst - a voter not swayed by media and partisan politics; however, I propose that while voters may be successfully categorized, neither independent nor partisan voters are better informed than the other, this must be attributed individually and not categorically. “Independent” is defined by the Oxford Dictionary as “not subject to authority or control; not depending on another…for one’s opinion; not belonging to or supported by a party” (Independent, 2002, p. 417). The problem with labelling a voter (or group of voters) with this term is that the label is most often a self-designation that sometimes has little to do with that word actually implies.

Concentrating on historically beneficial voting regions, the data of people workforce and economic situations can have drastic effects on the outcomes of this

Keeping this in mind, we must understand that this only tells half the story. In order to expand upon the ideas introduced in prior research, a quantitative element should be added. By doing this, we add a level of validity to the existing research while answering questions in the political science community that could be extremely valuable to

What factors are most accurate in predicting the outcome of a presidential election? In the book The Gamble, by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, the factors of choice and chance answer this question through analysis of the 2012 presidential election. The term choice refers to the factors that the candidate has no control over, such as what the media chooses to cover and what the campaign chooses to make stances on. Adversely, chance is what the candidate has no control over, such as the state of the economy and partisanship. Sides and Vavreck refer to chance factors as fundamentals. I will argue that the economy plays the greatest role in deciding presidential elections. Campaigns and media are secondary to the economy and underlying voter partisanship, due to their inconsequential effect on voters. I will argue that chance is more important than choice from the evidence provided in the The Gamble, by John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, and Partisan Biases in Economic Accountability, by Larry Bartels. Political scientists evaluate and debate the role of choice versus the role of chance in predicting presidential elections. The economy and partisanship are superior at predicting presidential elections because the fleeting effects of media, the tug-of-war campaigns, strong voter partisanship, and myopic voters.

While the district size and its geographic make up varies from region to region and state to state, it is oftentimes plausible to categorize a district as either homogenous or heterogeneous based upon its racial and ethnic pluralities, as well as the constituents relative economic status. A homogenous district typically is comprised of individuals who are like-minded with similar opinions and district goals. However, in a heterogeneous district, there is a “difference between the dominant district group and the average voter” (Bishin, 2009, 126). Furthermore, the prominent industries within the district often also influence representatives because a large number of their constituents are employed by or affected by the actions of that industry

African Americans represent around half of the populace in the Democratic regions whilst white Americans comprised a significant majority of the population in the Republican regions. Similarly Figure 2, presents a large disparity in the demographic composition of the districts, with Republican areas considerably more rural. Figure 1 and Figure 2 display that the ‘swing’ district is more balanced in is demographics, being more racially diverse and suburban. Nonetheless Figure 3 and Figure 4 demonstrate that levels of education and income are relatively consistent across all

Our study and its subsequent design ensure that the voters that who were moved into these districts are comparable to the voters that still remain within the existing districts. Redistricting also permits us to fittingly model the miscellany procedure. To guarantee the voters a sense of fairness and to fight against vote reduction and weakening, these regions are drawn concisely so that a margin of the voting age population within the newly drawn districts are minorities. In both 1990 and 2000, after each census was performed, North Carolina gained 1 seat in the house. North Carolina gained the 11th Congressional District in 1990 and the 12th Congressional District

Many political science researchers study the forces that drive the vote. One of the earliest, and most well known, books about election studies is The American Voter. Written in 1960, the book tries to explain a model that describes what drives Americans to vote the way they do. The model suggests that social factors determine ones party identification, which determines one's issue positions and evaluation of candidate's characteristics. These forces all work together to determine how one will vote. This model may or may not still hold true today, as political researchers are not in agreement as to what exactly drives the vote. One thing that does remain true, however, is that factors such as social groups, party identification, issues,