Global Outlook On The Emerging Markets

According to recent analysis from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2010, the UK is estimated to have had the fourth highest level of structural government borrowing amongst the 29 advanced economies for which comparable data are accessible. This structural government borrowing is one of the main underlying issues that the Budget, over the reign of this current government, will try to address. However, at least according to plans published so far, the UK is intending the fourth largest fiscal consolidation among this same group of countries and so by 2017 the IMF predicts that the UK will have a lower level of structural borrowing than many other advanced economies, being below the average in the Euro area and below the average among the G20 and G7 countries.

DQ 1: Summarize the most important benefits and risks associated with diversification into global markets.

Fourth, the global economic situation is not clear at present. The stock market collapse and economic data pointing to a slowdown in China have clouded the outlook for the global economy. At the same time the other emerging economies slowed their growth economy or started to fall. It has the negative impact on the exports. And it even outweighing any advantages the collapse of the dollar may

Kvint (2008) indicates that some statistics of reports on emerging market are contradictory, and this inconsistent situation even can be seen from IMF’s reports. For instance, some emerging countries like China and India are classified as emerging markets and are included in the category of developing countries. On the other hand, many of the sub-Saharan countries as emerging markets are definitely still undeveloped. Kvint (2008) suggests that the main and most important characteristic of all emerging market countries is that they are at some stage during the processes of economic maturation and development of free markets. An attractive environment for foreign investors and global trading has been created based on this characteristic. He suggests the main characteristics in his study:

In emerging market countries, many firms have debt denominated in foreign currency like the dollar or yen. A depreciation of the domestic currency

The early 1990s exhibited a boom in many economies throughout the world due to factors such as globalization and other trade liberalization practices, but this boom was quickly halted in the latter half of the decade when bad investments nearly sent the entire world into economic turmoil. With the introduction of free trade practices such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, the economies of many of the worlds “developing countries” skyrocketed due to an influx of foreign investment. At, first this exponential boom in small countries with emerging economies seemed like it would never end. However, this all changed when investors “caught wind” that these developing countries did not have the means to keep up with the massive inflow of investments. This led to what we know refer to today as the Asian Financial Credit Crisis. In order to understand how to prevent such a disaster from happening again, we must first examine how exactly this event was triggered, and what should have been done differently.

Reduction in interest rate: In March 2009, UK government through Bank of England reduced interest rate from 5.0 % in September 2008 to 0.5 %. Figure 7 below shows UK interest rate level from a decade prior to the crisis period.

· There are expected to be new emerging markets in Asia opening up with the financial boom

The “Great Recession” is commonly used to explain the massive economic contraction that occurred in the United States during the fourth quarter of 2007. However, the actions of the United States spanned to other nations, leaving massive effect on the global economy. One nation that took on serious financial burden during this recession was the United Kingdom. This nation first faced the effects of the Great Recession beginning in the first quarter of 2008. Overall, the initial mass effects on the nation can be attributed to the nation’s reliance on the financial sector. In fact, after partially stabilizing in 2009, the country struggled with a double-dip recession between 2010-12, and continues to struggle with some of these effects.

Inflation is a possible cause of higher unemployment in the medium term if one country experiences a much higher rate of inflation than another, leading to a loss of international competitiveness and a subsequent worsening of their trade performance. If inflation in the UK is persistently above our major trading partners, British exporters may struggle to maintain their share in overseas markets and import penetration into the UK domestic market will grow. Both trends could lead to a worsening balance of payments. The UK government believes that monetary stability (i.e. low inflation) is a precondition for sustained economic expansion.  As the chart below demonstrates, the UK has made progress in reducing the volatility of its inflation rate in the last decade. The era of high and volatile inflation may have come to an end.

Just after ten years of Asian financial crisis, another major financial crisis now concern for all developed and some developing countries is “Global Financial Crisis 2008.” It is beginning with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sunday, September 14, 2008 and spread like a flood. At first U.S banking sector fall in a great liquidity crisis and simultaneously around the world stock markets have fallen, large financial institutions have collapsed or been bought out, and governments in even the wealthiest nations have had to come up with rescue packages to bail out their financial systems. (Global issue)

Following the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target rapidly to near zero, and engaged in two types of unconventional monetary policies to provide further stimulus: forward guidance about future interest rates and large-scale asset purchase program. These measures were directed toward improving financial conditions and therefore spurring economic activity. However, as the central bank of the world’s largest economy, the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions had considerable spillover effect on emerging market economies, which is transmitted mainly through international capital flow.

In order to prevent the current crisis from deepening, immediate actions are required from the major industrial countries and from the international community. There is evidence that the world economy is experiencing a major slowdown, which may deepen if inadequately managed. For example, Japan is in its worst recession since the war, much of East and South-East Asia is in depression, Russia is experiencing a major downturn, growth has stalled in Latin America, and the prices of primary commodities and a number of manufactures are falling in international markets. Authorities in the industrial countries must nonetheless continue to be alert. Several downside risks still remain, and current policies may prove insufficient to prevent the world economy from slipping into recession. Expansionary fiscal policies may be required in other industrial economies, in addition to Japan. It is also crucial that the rules of an open international trading system should operate smoothly, allowing the economies that face adjustment to reduce their deficits or generate trade surpluses with the more vigorous industrial economies.

Investing in emerging markets offer tempting advantages to investors. The volatile economies of countries considered to be in this category have a potential for extraordinary returns. A caveat to investors considering opportunities in emerging markets are the presence of unstable governments, the chance of nationalization, poor property rights protection, and large swings in prices. Emerging markets are far from a sure thing. But, despite high individual risk, emerging markets can reduce portfolio risk. The volatile economies of these countries have such low correlations compared to the domestic market that they actually provide the greatest degree of diversification.

A decline in value of Euro followed by the crisis in Euro Zone is likely to have a negative effect on India’s export to European region, which accounts for around 18% - 19% of India’s total leather exports. The exports from key areas like Leather and Gems & Jewellery, which holds a major contribution in India’s total exports to the region were said to have witnessed a negative effect in the initial months of the current fiscal due to the Euro Zone crisis.