Government Polls

While the majority claim that taking a step to deport people is cruel and inconsistent with our legal value that undocumented immigrant strengthen our economy and country. Claim-makers use the polls because they offer feedback at the early stages in the process and to determine whether their claim is effective or not. Policymakers often base their decision on what the polls say. Public opinion overall there is little support to deport all those undocumented immigrants in the U.S. nonetheless survey in the past have found great support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and change the constitution. This form of public- opinion is often viewed as inaccurate because polls are formalized situation in which people know they are being solicited for analysis and this can affect what they are willing to

A vast amount of public opinion polling takes place during election cycles. These polls are studied by evaluating a sample of a population. Pollsters aim to study random sample of the population to gain a true understand of the public opinion. Unfortunately, pollsters often run into what is known as a sample bias. This is when a sample does not represent the public true opinion. Instead in sample bias only a fragment of the opinions is present. Though polls are subject to error, they do have the ability to echo the sentiments of the population. I believe this is both most effective and prevalent in exit polls. The important of exit polls as highlighted in the article “Exit polls and voter turnout” by Asger Lau Anderson and Thomas Jensen. In the article the authors suggest that exit polls drive voters to get involved. They state that “In relation to the debate on the implications of exit polls, the most important insight from our analysis is the following. It may well happen that the incentive to vote increases after the revelation of an exit poll.” By suggesting this, the authors relay the idea that exit polls are the way to truly gain an understanding of the public opinion.

Best starts out the chapter explaining how public opinion is measured, Best specifically uses public polling as a means to measure public opinion (166-167). Best mentions that a small amount of people in a specific population, known as a sample, have their opinions taken in a poll format. Those polls’ results are then used to generalize the whole population (167).

The Quinnipiac University poll was done during early September to test the waters before the first presidential debate between Clinton and Trump. The sample size was roughly 960, supposedly voters from across the nation with a margin of error of +- 3.2 which isn’t horrible. The numbers look fine and because it was a nationwide poll, the possibility of getting a fair and accurate cross section of views is fairly high, that being said there are a few issues with this poll that cause me to be concerned with the accuracy of this poll for many reasons.

Firstly, in its most basic element, this survey brought key issues to the attention of the mass public and political elites. Secondly, surveys carry the ability to create political change. Days after public opinion showed meager approval of President Trump’s initial response to the Charlottesville attacks, Trump condemned neo-Nazis and white supremacists in a statement (Manchester 2017). For the premises given above, I find this Marist Poll survey to be meaningful. The Charlottesville attacks will remain historically important.

The title of the article is a little misleading because the polls that are misleading are the ones that need to “stop the polling insanity.” Will they? No. So, the point of the article is that it is up to the individual reading the polls to assess

I think it is also worth noting that Green and Palmquist use the NES poll data in their study which bring us back to the first question which is how to accurately measure partisanship? If question asked by pools can heavily change the result of studies we need to know what question to ask when we are measuring short term variance and when we are measuring long term variance. I think the Gallup poll might be useful to measure the short term variance in macro partisanship and the NES and GSS poll might be effecting when it comes to long term shifts in partisanship. However these article failed to discuss the polls in general and find if the interviewed population is representative of the US population. Abramson and Ostrom also briefly talked about the effect telephone poll can have on polls result but it was discussed in depth. In last week Alan S. Gerber and Donald P. Green found positive effect of personal contract on voting. Doing interviews for polls might have better result than telephone

This then leads into what is the sample size is too small and is not a great representation of the overall population. If the sample size is too small, it could lead to selection bias which is when the sample does a terrible job representing the actual ideologies of the population in that area. Push polling, which is asking questions in a way that gives the pollster the answer that is being sought out, is often another technique used to potentially skew the outcome. All of these are factors that could potentially be important when it comes to the outcome of the polls. Make sure to keep in mind that whenever a poll is taken there is always a way that someone/something can skew it to their

president. Polls can give us a general idea of the Nation’s preference in terms of who will be selected as the next president. This article uses the Bloomberg National Poll which showed Obama having a thirteen point lead over Romney while the Associated Press Poll resulted in Obama having a three point lead while the Pew Research Center had the president up by four points. These polls ranged from a three point to a thirteen point lead which means that different sampling will yield different results. Location, demographic, and whether the state is democratic or republican plays an important part in the results you will get from the polls.

According to Nate Cohn of the The New York Times says “the poll is extremely and admirable transparent: It has published a data set and the documentation necessary to replicate the survey.” The poll appears to display a non-probability sampling method with the determine sample size

The type of question this poll was asking was about how different parties view Police Officers, College Professors, Military, Republicans, Democrats, Liberals, and Conservatives. The question on asking how they rank these type of political beliefs or profession is important to see how the average citizen views these professions, especially now with more extreme political beliefs now and the views of Police with the issue of Police Brutality. This issue is not extremely pressing as it asks the opinion citizens to have for different groups (Democrats, Conservatives, Military). The question seemed to be very neutral and not really skewed to have a preference on one side or another. The question was “How do you feel towards [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE]?

A type of poll that is commonly use throughout the service of U.S presidents is the Presidental job approval rating. This poll is designed to measure how well the public thinks the president is doing his or job.

The election season is a season full of polls, predictions, and forecasts. During this hectic period all media outlets compete to update polls and inform the American public on which candidate is leading. Polling is an aspect greatly used in the American media. We rely on polls to make predictions for everything that involves competition. Sports, politics, economics and many more fields use polls to make predictions about the future. As a society we trust polls and believe them as if they are certain and will predict the future without any error. In the 2016 Presidential elections, polls have failed immensely. Donald Trump came into Election Day with a minimal 15% chance of winning. Despite his minimal chances the next president of the free

In our globalized world, a realistic view of the attitudes of those from outside the United States is becoming increasingly necessary. When the organization began as the American Institute of American Opinion in 1935, it focused primarily on what determining what the average American consumer wanted from a company. Soon though, its methods were proven to be highly successful when they accurately predicted President Franklin’s victory in the 1936 election. Now, Gallup supplies objective political, economic, and social polls of citizens of more than 160 countries through its world poll network. Its success on an international level derives from its ability to tailor its methods to the country that the company is currently surveying. This flexibility based on region, combined with a rigid procedure for carrying out the survey, as well as a system of randomization to help ensure an even sample of the population being surveyed, make the Gallup poll one of the most successful of polls worldwide, in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

I agree that information on the ones that conducts the polls is important. Insight into the people that conducted the polls may explain the direction of the results reported. The results can sometimes be bias and not truly represent the population that was sampled. The reporter of the results may speak louder than the results themselves. You also make a valid point in regards to the funding of the polls. The people funding the polls may have an influence on the results also.