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Gubernatorial And Presidential Races

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The central question that my research paper is trying to answer is why do some states vote drastically different at the state level verses the federal level? I am particularly looking at the differences between Gubernatorial and Presidential races in the time frame of 1980 to 2016. Despite our hyper partisan political climate, there are numerous examples of states who in the most recent election voted heavily for Hillary Clinton (Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont) or Donald Trump (Montana, Louisiana) who have governors of the opposite party who are in power and popular. Over the course of my reading I encountered several explanations as to why the public is willing to vote differently for Governor compared to President. I have decided to …show more content…

Sarah Anzia has an article that illustrates the effect that interest groups can have in lower turnout elections. Her article examined school board elections and concluded that teachers’ unions (a well mobilized constituency) had greater influence in lower turnout elections. This effect can also be true at the statewide level. National political interest groups may sit out gubernatorial races, especially in years that do not affect national outcome (no potential up-ballot coattail), therefore local lobbying interests with more at stake may gain more influence over the election. An example (like Anzia article), could be teachers’ unions. The importance of educational issues at a state level mean that teachers unions are very motivated in statewide races and therefore could carry more relative influence when there is less political competition and voter turnout. These relative changes of constituent mobilization and interest group power could explain why off-year elected Governors can be of a different party than who the state choose as President.
Another aspect to this explanation is mentioned in an article by Hyan Jung Yun and Jae Hee Park. That article points out that gubernatorial elections are not “overshadowed” in midterm election years and thus candidates have more attention directed at them. Sometimes the messages of candidates are drowned out by the ruckus of the Presidential campaign and voters are not able to properly assess

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