The central question that my research paper is trying to answer is why do some states vote drastically different at the state level verses the federal level? I am particularly looking at the differences between Gubernatorial and Presidential races in the time frame of 1980 to 2016. Despite our hyper partisan political climate, there are numerous examples of states who in the most recent election voted heavily for Hillary Clinton (Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont) or Donald Trump (Montana, Louisiana) who have governors of the opposite party who are in power and popular. Over the course of my reading I encountered several explanations as to why the public is willing to vote differently for Governor compared to President. I have decided to …show more content…
Sarah Anzia has an article that illustrates the effect that interest groups can have in lower turnout elections. Her article examined school board elections and concluded that teachers’ unions (a well mobilized constituency) had greater influence in lower turnout elections. This effect can also be true at the statewide level. National political interest groups may sit out gubernatorial races, especially in years that do not affect national outcome (no potential up-ballot coattail), therefore local lobbying interests with more at stake may gain more influence over the election. An example (like Anzia article), could be teachers’ unions. The importance of educational issues at a state level mean that teachers unions are very motivated in statewide races and therefore could carry more relative influence when there is less political competition and voter turnout. These relative changes of constituent mobilization and interest group power could explain why off-year elected Governors can be of a different party than who the state choose as President.
Another aspect to this explanation is mentioned in an article by Hyan Jung Yun and Jae Hee Park. That article points out that gubernatorial elections are not “overshadowed” in midterm election years and thus candidates have more attention directed at them. Sometimes the messages of candidates are drowned out by the ruckus of the Presidential campaign and voters are not able to properly assess
are simply way too many citizens with way too many different opinions within our state.
Interest groups in California are also a force in the weakening of political parties. Each interest group has a specific agenda and many of these agendas can be pushed in a political direction. When initiatives or propositions are created that involve one or more of the interest groups, they will put funding towards a campaign either for or against the proposition. These interest groups can have a party preference but often do not. Since they are putting a large amount of funding into the direct democracy of California they are in turn weakening the state of the parties. These interest groups may also propose legislation to be voted on. Interest groups create more direct democracy in the state of California which also weakens the parties. They also can put funding toward candidates during elections. When interest groups are funding candidates, parties play a smaller role in the candidate that ultimately gets elected. Voters may choose a candidate based on the funding they receive from interest
The 1980 presidential election of the United States featured three primary candidates, Republican Ronald Reagan, Democrat Jimmy Carter and liberal Republican John Anderson. Ronald Reagan was the governor of California before he decided to run for the presidency. John Anderson was a representative in Illinois and Carter was the incumbent. The lengthy Iran hostage crisis sharpened public opinions by the beginning of the election season. In the 1970s, the United States were experiencing a straining episode of low economic growth, high price increases and interest rates and an irregular energy crisis. The sense of discomfort in both domestic and foreign affairs in the nation were heading downward, this added to the downward spiral that was already going on. Between Carter, Anderson and Reagan, the general election campaign of the 1980s seemed more concerned with shadowboxing around political issues rather than a serious discussion of the issues that concerned voters.
The midterm elections in Texas were something very big this year. This year was the year that the current governor, Rick Perry, would not seek a fourth term. Greg Abbott, real name, Gregory Wayne Abbott, won the midterm election for governor and will take office in January 20, 2015.
Assess the extent to which incumbents have an adage over challengers in congressional elections. (25marks)
Some states are extremely one sided. For example, a republican in California has no reason to vote because a republican majority in California will not happen. A republican in California will have no influence in the overall election because without a republican majority their votes do not
The 2014 mid-term elections are some of the most telling that the United States has experienced within the past several decades. As President Barack Obama serves out his final term in office, many throughout the country are wondering which of the two major political parties will have the upper hand in government as America moves toward the next Presidential Election of 2016. In recent years, Florida has been considered one of the closest “battleground states” in all of the United States. The 2000 Presidential Election resulted in the votes needing to be recounted to finally give Republican candidate George W. Bush the victory over Democrat Al Gore and the last two Presidential Elections boasted narrow victories for the Democratic Party. The 2014 Florida gubernatorial election will likely feature incumbent Republican Rick Scott facing-off with Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, both a former governor of Florida and former member of the Republican Party. The contest is likely to be one of the closest races in all of 2014, and recently polling has shown the projected outcome of the race to be almost entirely unpredictable. After careful analysis of the Florida electorate, past elections, the primary candidates, public opinion polls, and projected campaign spending, I conclude that incumbent Governor Rick Scott will be re-elected to the governorship for his second term as head of the Florida
The New Jersey Gubernatorial election is coming up and citizens must vote for the candidate they think will best serve their needs. New Jersey’s Constitution includes that general elections shall be held annually on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November also, the time of holding such elections may be altered by law. Currently there are two candidates, Kim Guadagno who is on the Republican side and Phil Murphy who stands on the Democratic side. Both candidates have contradictory perspectives on topics that are spoken about during the debates. I believe Phil Murphy is the best candidate due to his promising ideas on controversial issues that are seen in New Jersey. Considering that there are more democrats than republicans in
When the words “swing state” are mentioned, Florida is perhaps one of the first states a person may think of. In this year’s election cycle, the story is no different. Florida has a single senate seat up for election, and Marco Rubio (R), and Patrick Murphy (D) are hoping to claim it on November 8th. Marco Rubio has held that seat since the last senate election in 2010, giving him an edge as the incumbent. Patrick Murphy is the challenger and has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2012. A glance at any polling numbers shows Rubio ahead, and most have shown him ahead since the beginning of the race. The polls do not show a commanding lead, as one may expect from an incumbent. While polling margins are slimmer than many average incumbents, money has not stopped flowing to Rubio. His finances are typical of an incumbent particularly that of a closely contested race. It may be impossible to tell which has the greater effect of Rubio’s fundraising. In states that are typically swing states and have close political races, simple analyses such as incumbency advantage may not fully explain the results and polls in the race.
Over the last few decades, we have seen a shift in voter participation, and involvement in the election arena rather it be national, state, and or local levels. According to Time Magazine, 2014 mid-terms voter turnout was at a 72 year low. At only 36.4% of U.S, eligible voters voted in 2014 mid-terms, down from 40.9% that voted in 2010 mid-terms. Analyst views the decline as the “millennial generation” coming into effect, which clearly indicates the age group (18-33) seems to have a significantly lower turnout rate compare to the older age groups. With less participation in state and local elections, we now face decisions such as elections in South Carolina being cancelled if the incumbent as no challenge, according to Cindi Scoppe associate editor at “The State”. This doesn’t provide ample explanation considering that the mid-terms elections do in fact represent a significant portion of state-level elections, which ultimately allows individuals to experience policies being implemented at a much greater effect. So the questions arise are we happy with single file candidates ascending to the elected office with no election? Is it the lack of interest or it doesn’t matter who’s in the seat? What does this say about the public responsibility for electing these people as our representatives to make decisions that impact our daily lives?
This year’s 2013 Governor of Virginia campaign was a tight race for the Republican and Democrat contenders. The candidates were Republican Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Libertarian Robert Sarvis. These campaigners had different views on marriage, immigration, and abortion, among other issues commonly discussed in politics within our country.
The 2016 Presidential election is coming up and candidates are fighting to get votes to be their party’s candidate. Ted Cruz is a Republican Protestant running for President with very conservative values hoping to bring America the change it needs. The Republicans have many people running for office that excite voters’ interest because they are not politicians. Although, Ted Cruz is a politician and stands behind it using his background in politics to gain ground. His political ad “Blessing” shows him as a man grounded in religious values and will use those values to be the best candidate for President of the United States. Ted Cruz successfully appeals to religious Republicans using different rhetorical strategies to persuade them to vote for him to be the Republican candidate for the 2016 Presidential election.
The 2014 midterm election was by far one of the most astounding ones, which resulted in a sweep by the Republican party. The Midterm elections in the United States refer to general elections in the United States that are held two years after the quadrennial (four-year) elections for the President of the United States (Oxford dictionary). This is done every two years to ensure that one specific seat holder does not get too comfortable and start to exercise his powers in the wrong way. The 2014 midterm election was by far one of the most erratic ones, the Republicans dominated in terms of the new seats acquired, whereas the democrat; they were shocked by the results. The questions the populace likewise
A Presidential Election, determines how the next four years would be. The election is a fight between different political parties, and they fight to win and represent the political beliefs and values of their followers. In the 2016 Presidential Election, there are many candidates who ran for president. There are main two main parties, the Democrat party and the Republican party, there were also many Third-party candidates. Donald Trump the primary candidate for the Republicans ran with no political experiences and won while Hillary Clinton the primary Democrat candidate who was the former sectary of state ran and lost. Not only was there a fight between the different parties, there also was fighting among each other and in individual parties. Many parties had many different views on the issues of today world. They both made many different promises on each issue.
People in large cities with a population of 50,000 plus tend to vote for the Democratic Party. The rural areas and small towns with a