Essay on Hindsight Bias

The belief-bias effect is when people make judgments based on prior beliefs and general knowledge, rather than on the rules of logic. For example, when a student takes a history test and answers short-answer questions based on their prior beliefs and general knowledge about the time period, rather than thinking about the course material’s relation to the test. To maximize people’s abilities to effectively reason or make decisions, students should be taught about the belief-bias effect, so that they make fewer errors when trying to answer questions.

He analysis conformation bias, hindsight bias, self-serving bias, and other types. When talking about conformation bias McRaney analysis that we have constructed our thoughts and opinions based on information we have accumulated based on our beliefs, while ignoring what the information against other opinions. A form of conformation bias that McRaney uses in page twenty-seven is: When you talk about a movie you haven’t seen in a long time and all of a sudden you are surrounded by information of said movie, you believe that fate is trying to tell you something. In reality conformation bias is occurring. You are have noticed more information about the movie because you have dismissed any other information. We seek out information that only enhances our beliefs and discriminates against the facts. Hindsight bias is relatable because we look at newfound information and speculate that we had already known it all along. Hindsight bias isn’t necessarily good because we have tendency to always wanting to be right, so after learning something new we edit our memories so we seem more factual than what we really are. McRaney states on page thirty-three that studies are the best way to demonstrate hindsight bias for researchers. Researchers can write a false statement in an article and we manufacture this information as our truth. Another form of bias McRaney talked about was self-serving bias. Self-serving bias

The word autopsy derives from the Greek word autopsia, which means “the act of seeing for oneself” (Autopsy 1). An autopsy purpose is to “determine the cause of death, observe the effects of disease” (Autopsy 1). Human dissection was frowned upon until after the Middle Ages. The first human dissection was performed in 300 BCE by Herophilus and Erasistratus, two physicians who were studying disease (Autopsy 2). In the late 2nd century CE a Greek physician Galen of Pergamum was the first

This method may have been sufficient in the 10th century when people were illiterate and believed the world was flat; however, the scientific world since then has grown exponentially. Science is a powerful study, aiding us in understanding the complex process life and the absence of life, death. Pathology, the science of disease, has assisted in the arrests of countless criminals, uncovering the truth and more notably providing a sense of closure for the loved ones of the deceased. A coroner system without the foundation of science is a system that keeps murders on the streets, the innocent behinds bars and prosecutors frozen in cases. The most memorable example of inefficiency is Dr. Paul McGarry, who made careless errors in not just one but four autopsies. In the case of new prison inmate Cayne Miceli, McGarry initially determined the cause of death to be a drug overdose. Upon the further examination, a second examiner found a heap of mucus in her lungs indicating she had severe asthma. The doctor then concluded the real cause of death was the jail restraints on her chest blocked her airways during an asthma attack (Thompson, 2011, para 13-16). A peculiar fact about the case was the McGarry concluded the cause of death before he got the test results. Could he had been trying to hide something? After all, he is an elected official which according to the NAS

In this paper we will analyze and discuss unconscious biases in our personal lives, workplace and home. How we become aware of these biases, what causes

More often than not, the outcomes of events that occur in a person’s life is the product of the idea of the self-fulfilling prophecy. It is that which “occurs when a person’s expectations of an event make the outcome more likely to occur than would otherwise have been true” (Adler and Towne, Looking Out, Looking In 66). Or restated, as Henry Ford once put it, “If you think you can, you can. If you think you can’t, you’re right!” This brief research paper touches on the two types of self-fulfilling prophecies, those that are self-imposed and those that are imposed by others. Additionally, it gives a discussion on how great of an influence it is in each person’s life, both positively and negatively, and how it consequently helps to mold

The main theme of “Final Cut” by Atul Gawande is that medicine is an inexact science and doctors are not always sure of themselves, even if they appear confident. Gawande’s main argument is simply stated: there has been a decline in the amount of autopsies performed in the medical field as a result of medical arrogance; over confident doctors believe they know the cause of death and do not want to perform autopsies. Gawande illustrates his argument by outlining the history of autopsy use in medicine, incorporating medical cases that he has experienced as a surgeon, and including statistics on autopsy usage. “Final Cut” is an outstanding profile on the decline of autopsy use in medicine. What makes “Final Cut” an enjoyable and informative article for all readers is its use of strategies associated with fiction such as the establishment of characters, balance between medical information and personal experience, and its use of active voice.

In Chapter 3, there were 12 areas of bias spread across the 3 areas of heuristics. The main theme of the text was to prove that we are predisposed to certain outcomes. As we make important decisions we rely on our memory, or a number of past events, or even ignoring facts. Overall, we are biased in many ways when it comes to making decisions, or predicting outcomes of a particular event.

Confirmation bias is something that we all struggle with in one way or another. It occurs when a person has a preconceived notion about something, and that person refuses to accept information that is in opposition with what he or she believes. That person has made a decision about someone or something and will only accept information that supports that idea. These ideas are not always right, and can often affect the way that people live their lives.

In this paper, I will discuss the background of forensic pathology, the pros and cons of forensic pathology, and the similar and different in a forensic pathologist and a coroner. There are various disciplines in Forensic Science that can help with a crime, and solving that crime. One of these various disciplines is Forensic Pathology which the study of disease, and its causes, moreover; it involves the discovering the cause of the death where a death is sudden or suspicion to law enforcement. While a Forensic Pathologist can be helpful to law enforcement, and helpful in assisting in crime investigation, there are cons to being forensic pathologist. Furthermore, forensic pathologist can be confused with coroner even though they do the same

This truth forms an essential link between the enforcement of law and protection of the public in the administration of justice.” Forensic pathology is clearly a crucial role in the justice system. You have to be a little weird and crazy to have a passion for the kind of work that the coroners and M.E. go through on an everyday basis. They use past knowledge to make decisions on how death occurred and they come across many different postmortem changes in dead bodies. Every field is important in forensics, but pathology advocates for truth and justice to dead

Confirmation bias is a tendency of people to prefer information that reinforces a thought or believe that they have. People demonstrate this bias when they retain information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotional issues and for deeply rooted beliefs. (Science Daily)

After 3 weeks of keeping a journal of my bias’s I have found I can now reflect on the process. I must say I am somewhat surprised with the outcome. I have found new bias’s I never knew I had or never took the time to think that I had. I also reflected on biases that I knew I had. When it comes down to it, everyone has biases about something. So saying that you do not have a bias or denying would just be a lie.

So with the idea of finding what influence a positive false belief had on people the researchers conducted the experiment. Also this finding of false positive belief would have a positive influence in a person behavior would have both theoretical and practical significance. It would demonstrate that it is possible to plant false positive memories in people and also it could conceivably aid in clinical treatment of certain disease (e.g. generalized anxiety phobia).

The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913)[1] . Also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, which is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.[2] . Such an expectation could be mistakenly referred to as being due, and it probably arises from