How Assumptions of Consensus Undermine Decision Making

In the excerpt from Don’t Believe Everything You Think The 6 Basic Mistakes in Thinking we are introduced to 6 things that cause us to believe everything we think. The first one is how “we prefer stories to statistics”. Humans like to base decisions or opinions based on stories they may hear from friends or family. The second example is how “we seek to confirm”, we side with information that goes along with our beliefs and ideas that we already had in place. The third example is how “we rarely appreciate the role of chance and coincidence”, which in short means we tend to ignore that things

In order to distinguish between the two, inference and assumption, real life examples can help provide a better understanding. An assumption that is centered off a previous experience can lead to making an inference based on that assumption (Elder & Paul, 2002). For example, if you drive your car around a particular blind corner daily and see children in a yard, playing near the road, you could assume that this corner is dangerous. On a subsequent day, you may see an accident at this same corner and infer that a child was involved in the accident. Depending on how sound our belief is, the assumption or inference may or may not be accurate.

8. In exploring the certainty with which people hold their beliefs a researcher proposes that those with more information about the topic will be more certain about their belief about that topic. Half of the participants are given 20 facts about a topic and are asked about their belief about that topic. The other half of the participants are given 5 facts about a topic and are asked about the strength of their belief about that topic.

inferences and judgements about people and sometimes forget that it is our own viewpoint that

Presumption can reveal false constructive attitudes about other people's ways. For instance, we in the urban industrial society often think of people from India as being "money hungry and intruders" although this view fails to identify that there are many emphasis in their way of life, with the contribution to communities. False optimistic presumptions can be just as deceptive as false unconstructive assumptions.

Isaac Asimov said, “Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won’t come in.” Everyday people perceive things based on assumptions. Why is that? Is it because of the norms, rules, or stuff we see on television? You could probably say that. Society over the years has taught us many ways to see eye to eye on different issues. Clifford D. Simak illustrates many ways to differ perception from reality in “Desertion”.

In conclusion, you shouldn’t jump to conclusions, because the fastest answer isn’t always the right

The existence of “the tyranny of the prevailing opinion and feeling” (Mill 4) also constrains an individual’s personal liberty. In On Liberty, Mill wrote that “the mass do not now take their opinions from “the mass do not now take their opinions from dignitaries in Church or State, from ostensible leaders, or from books. Their thinking is done for them by men much like themselves” (63). Mill believed that the majority in the society tends to impose their own ideas and practices onto other people. This will eventually cause the minority opinion to be completely omitted and silenced. Moreover, the majority is not guaranteed to be correct, and could not be falsified as result of no open discussion or debate. This lack of discussion could only fetter and hinder the development and the formation of character. Mill wrote “However unwilling a person who has a strong opinion may admit the possibility that his opinion may be false, he ought to be moved by the consideration that, however true it may be, if it is not fully, frequently discussed, it will be held as a dead dogma, not a living” (34). In a society where dead dogmas are prevalent, no individuals can obtain complete freedom. This is because no one will have the courage to challenge and circulate new and original ideas that can help them achieve liberty. The members of the society will live in a world where no one will construct new ideas, and no one will discover and spread the ultimate truths. Instead, the people will cling

In the consensus model the goal is to allow the NP to practice to the fullest of extent including education and licensure. Using this model, the NP should have the ability to prescribe independently. The ability to prescribe independently would include being about to order medications, DME, and other medical services without a collaborating physician.

In his 2013 book, Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains a field that is commonly seen, commonly applied, and commonly misinterpreted: statistics. Though statistical data is ubiquitous in daily life, valid statistical conclusions are not. Wheelan reveals that when data analysis is flawed or incomplete, faulty conclusions abound. Wheelan’s work uncovers statistics’ unscrupulous potential, but also makes a key distinction between deliberate misuse and careless misreading. However, his analysis is less successful in distinguishing common sense from poor judgement, a gap that enables the very statistical issues he describes to perpetuate themselves.

One of the greatest dangers to scientific studies is the "confirmation bias". When a researcher is trying to collect documents and publications for what is studying or analyzing, it is very likely that only see, or just to notice what "it suits" for what he wants to prove. Moreover, even almost unconsciously, it is liable to see more quickly connections with other publications that seem to corroborate their investigations. Unfortunately, this "confirmation bias" affects not only scientific studies. It concerns us all. In today's article, I intend to show by example how to detect this phenomenon and some techniques to try to avoid it.

Looking Past Appearances People are susceptible to making faulty assumptions about others. Intentionally and unintentionally, judgments upon an unfamiliar face is made swiftly. In less than a second, a snap judgement that is “surprisingly hard to budge” is formed in the mind (Highfield, Wiseman, Jenkins). In a phenomenon known as the halo effect, “the perception of positive qualities in one thing or part gives rise to the perception of similar qualities in related things or in the whole.” (Dobrin)

A crucial skill in critical thinking is learning to distinguish inference from assumption. An inference is an act of concluding that something is true or seems to be true. An assumption is an act of assuming something based on previous beliefs. Everyone has their own point of view, therefore, they have different assumptions about what the see. For example, if two people see an overweight person at the gym, one might infer, "There's a lazy person." The other might infer, "That person is taking control of their health." These inferences are based on different assumptions about the conditions under which overweight people end up in the gym; these assumptions are connected to the point of view about people that each has formed. The first person

In other words, there has always been an ideological skepticism when it came to science. On the contrary, many do not know whether to consider this to be good or bad. Although the benefits in doubting almost all information is being viewed as intelligent, rigorous, and self-disciplined, the disadvantages comprise of missing out on useful information and being irrational and sloppy. Moreover, Elbow develops his argument in stating that the doubting game is a natural process for humans. In contrast, the believing game is a thought process that is unconventional to most. Elbow explains that in order to reach a trustworthy conclusion, one would have to sincerely believe two opinions and deem one as the most trustworthy. Without doing so, both parties will become stubborn, thus being deaf to one another’s opinion causing the only possible outcome to be the lack of understanding. Likewise, Elbow drew assumptions in concluding that the “two dialects” of the games have their own benefits, and practically have a similar results through different

When it comes to trust, people might generally gravitate towards trusting those in their social circle more compared to strangers. Since, previous experience of trust was positive, they might not hesitate while relying on them again. Risk associated related to their credibility are low compared to an unfamiliar person. Moreover, certain individuals tend to be more conservative and selective when it comes to trusting even their acquaintances. However, human behavior instead of being fixed, is flexible and external factors influence people to make certain decisions that they would not make under normal conditions. Social pressures, environmental pressures and intrapersonal factors can influence their decision making process. Individuals under