Essay about Implications for Economic Growth

11178 Words Nov 20th, 2011 45 Pages
Population-Control-Policies and their Implications for Economic Growth in China
Bachelor’s Thesis supervised by the Department of Economics at the University of Zurich Prof. Dr. Fabrizio Zilibotti

to obtain the degree of Bachelor of Arts in Economics

Author: Noemi Schramm Course of Studies: Economics Closing date: August 17, 2011

Abstract This bachelor thesis is giving an overview on previously performed research how family-planning-policies in China (explicitly the so-called One-Child-Policy) have affected economic growth since 1979 and tries to give possible predictions and forecasts on how it could affect economic growth until 2050 through critical model analysis. The Solow model gives theoretical answers but also yields
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Development of the Dependency Ratio . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Influence on Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Population-Control-Policy in the Solow Model 3.1 Theoretical Analysis of the Solow Model . . . . . . 3.1.1 Solow Model with Constant Capital Stock . 3.1.2 Solow Model with Dynamic Capital Stock . 3.2 Combining Data and Neo-Classical Growth Theory 5

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4 Upcoming Challenges for China linked with the One-ChildPolicy 33 5 Conclusion A Appendix 35 37

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List of Figures
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Population Growth, Crude Birth and Death Rates of China 1949 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Population and GDP per capita of China 1978 - 2005 . . . . Crude Birth Rate per 1000 Women 1978 - 2009 . . . . . . . Total Fertility Rate in % 1978 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . Population Age Structure 1960 - 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . GDP annual growth rate 1978 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . Female Labour Participation 1980 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . Total Dependency Ratio 1960 - 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change of Working Population 2005 - 2050 . . . . . . . . . . Correlation of GDP Growth Rate and ∆ . . . . . . . . . . . Forecast of total GDP 2009 - 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Population Age Structure 2005 - 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 11 13 13 15

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