International Events Weigh Increasingly On The Fed

The Federal Reserve has the dual job of ensuring price stability and maximum employment, which are contradictory objectives. The Feds try to achieve the goals through monetary policy which determines the demand and supply of money by controlling interest rates. The Fed’s goal is to achieve a natural rate of unemployment of more or less 5%. When the actual unemployment figures are below the natural rate of unemployment, inflation increases and there is a high demand of goods and services propelling the economy with the ensuing labor demands and the pressure it places on wages, which in turn produces inflation. When the Fed is faced with this scenario, it must increase the rates to slow the growth and achieve price stability (contractionary cycle).

Although business leaders may not have a crystal ball to help them plan for the future, they do have access to a wide range of Federal Reserve publications that can help identify recent and current trends and what these economists believe will take place in the coming months. Given the lingering effects of the Great Recession of 2008 on the American economy today, identifying the future economic outlook for America using this type of freely available information therefore represents a timely and valuable enterprise. To this end, this paper provides a review of relevant publications to identify the Federal Reserve's current assessment of economic activity and financial markets, its current view about inflation and various monetary tools that have been used to stabilize the economic and prices in recent years. Finally, an analysis of the economic outlook for the next 12- to 18-month period is followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.

In the late 2007, early 2008 the United States and the world was hit with the most serious economic downturn since The Great Depression in 1929. During this time the Federal Reserve played a huge role in assuring that it would not turn into the second Great Depression. In this paper, we will be discussing what the Federal Reserve did during this time, including a discussion of our nation’s three main economic goals which are GDP, employment, and inflation. My goal is to describe the historic monetary and fiscal policy efforts undertaken by the U.S. Government and Federal Reserve, including both the traditional and non-traditional measures to ease credit markets and stimulate the economy.

The discussion of whether the Federal Reserve should raise the federal funds rate is a highly contentious one. Members of the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) and academic economists disagree about what constitutes appropriate future macroeconomic policy for the Unites States. In the past, the Fed had been able to raise rates when the unemployment rate was under 5% and inflation was at a target of 2%. Enigmatically, since the Great Recession and despite a strengthening economy, year-over-year total inflation since 2008 has averaged only 1.4%—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (“PCE”). Today, PCE inflation is at 1-1.5% and has continuously undershot the Fed’s inflation target of 2% three years in a row. (Evan 2015) In the six years since the bottom of the Great Recession the U.S. economy has made great strides in lowering the published unemployment rate from about 10% back down to about 5.5%. In light of this data, certain individuals believe that the Federal Reserve should move to increase the federal funds rate in 2015 because unemployment is near 5% and inflation should bounce back on its own (Derby 2015). However, this recommendation is misguided.

According to staff review of the financial situation for January 28-29, there are developments in emerging market economies. The Fed will continue to support Monetary economic situations over the intermeeting period, they were critically affected by Federal Reserve correspondences, to some degree better-than-anticipated economic information discharges, and advancements in developing market economies. On net, monetary conditions in the United States stayed strong of development in economic action and work: Equity costs is wrinkled a bit, longer-term investment rates declined, and the

In the late 2007, early 2008 the United States and the world was hit with the most serious economic downturn since The Great Depression in 1929. During this time the Federal Reserve played a huge role in assuring that it would not turn into the second Great Depression. In this paper, we will be discussing what the Federal Reserve did during this time including a discussion of our nation’s three main economic goals which are GDP, employment, and inflation. My goal is to describe the historic monetary and fiscal policy efforts undertaken by the U.S. Government and Federal Reserve including both the traditional and non-traditional measures to ease credit markers and stimulate the economy.

Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, have both been known as “doves” in their individual monetary policy opinions and votes over the last five years. Since the summer of 2015, there has been a notable change in Rosengren’s rhetoric in the pursuit of normalization to the point where Rosengren is now actively suggesting an increase in interest rates in the very near future in order to promote growth in the economy, and as of the FOMC meeting on September 21st, 2016, was one of three dissenting votes (out of ten) for keeping rates low. Rosengren supports his new change of face with factors that will be discussed at length in this paper such as the pace of growth, the up-sides to higher rates, and the danger lurking in a prolonged low-rate economy. In similar (but not identical) fashion, John Williams is turning to the belief that rate hikes will be necessary sooner, rather than later if the Fed wishes to continue to spur growth in the United States economy, as opposed to letting the economy overheat into recession. Williams supports this point with evidence similar to Rosengren involving the pace of growth, the upside to higher rates, and the danger lurking in a prolonged low-rate economy. Eric Rosengren’s recent flip provides an interesting vantage point on both camps in the Federal Reserve. By comparing and contrasting the rhetoric of Rosengren (a former dove) and Williams

The Federal Reserve System is the most powerful institution in the United States economy. Functioning as the central bank of the United States, acting as a regulator, the lender of last resort, and setting the nation’s monetary policy via the Federal Open Market Committee, there is no segment of the American economy unaffected by the Federal Reserve [endnoteRef:1]. This power becomes even more substantial in times of “unusual and exigent circumstances,” as Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act gives authority to the Board of Governors to act unilaterally in lending and market making operations during financial crisis[endnoteRef:2]. As illustrated by their decision making in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 Great Recession,

To begin, The Federal Reserve System opted to raise interest rates that were placed near zero years ago in order to aid the economy’s growth and prevent inflation from exceeding the target number. Several factors including: the five percent drop in the unemployment rate, and the increase in wages, and the outlook on future inflation contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision take this action. However, the increase in interest rates in December has generated mixed results, and it appeared the Federal Reserve would announce the interest rates were going to increase again. Instead, Janet Yellen, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that there were better days ahead for the economy, and a slow and careful approach to future increases in the interest rate would serve the economy best, ensuring the growth is maintained. Although the interest rates remained the same early in 2016, they are expected to increase during the June meeting of the Federal Reserve. but cited the economy needed low interest rates in order for the economy to maintain growth. I find it interesting that Yellen continues to worry about inflation growing in the coming years, although the interest rate increase should keep inflation in check through its effect of the economic markets. Yellen sites that she would like the inflation to become and stay at 2 percent each year. However, the current inflation rate is .9 percent, so the the economy is a long way from achieving its target inflation rate

There is less public knowledge in issues dealing with FOMC meetings and that has been able to affect the issues of transparency in the monetary issues. Through the meetings, the monetary policies regarding the global issues are discussed and therefore the public is entitled to now the progress of the various meetings. This can be done through

The recession in 1974—1975 and two other back to back recessions in 1979—1982, which sent the employment rate to 11%. The inflation rate rose into double digits then plummeted. A period of Great Moderation came after 1985, and the recession of 1990—1991 was more manageable than the previous recession. Unfortunately, this period of tranquility was followed by the Great Recession which caused turmoil in the U.S economy. The consensus that manifested itself during the Great Moderation is called the “Great Moderation consensus”. It incorporates the belief as monetary policy as the main tool of stabilization, with skepticism

1. The Fed should direct the monetary policy of the U.S. In doing so it will, “promote employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” In order to achieve such requests the Fed will have to change the

This is what happens when you ask the Federal Reserve a few difficult questions... You know, questions that they didn't get to see hours before the press conference, questions that actually get at the heart of their "policy" and matter to the people.

On September 18, 2013 the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In addition, the committee agreed to continue its monthly $85 billion purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent. Inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored .

Many people give no thought as to the daily operations of the Federal Reserve. It has a shocking amount of impact on the daily lives of every American. Without its influence, I believe it is safe to say our lives as we know them would come to a screeching halt. Everything from the value of our currency (therefore the prices we pay) and ensuring banks are not ripping off its customers, to completing digital transactions within tenths of seconds is regulated for the stability of the people, the nation, and the world. The responsibility for oversight of trillions of dollars on a daily basis falls to them.