915 WordsMar 26, 20114 Pages

JET Copies Problem
The simulation of Jet Copies can be done by generating random numbers from given probability distributions. The different steps of this simulation and assumption made are explained below. 1. Simulation for the repair time.
It is given that the repair time follows Repair Time (days) Probability 1. .20
2. .45
3. .25
4. .10
-----
1.00
To generate a random number from the above distribution, we use the following procedure.
Generate a random number denoted by r2 from between 0 and 1. If this generated random number is less than or equal to 0.2 take repair time = 1.*…show more content…*

Since the break down time is given in weeks, we stop the simulation when total number of weeks greater than 52 5. Summary
Generate random number from the break down calculate breakdown time. Generate random number from the repair distribution and calculate repair time require to get the machine repaired. Generate random numbers between 2000 to 8000 and estimate lost revenue due to this particular break down. Calculate the lost revenue by multiplying this number with repair time and revenue from 1 copy ($0.1). Repeat this process until sum of all the break down time exceeds 52 weeks and calculate the total loos. The excel output under two different assumptions are given below.
|Repair Distribution | |
|P(y) |Cumulative |Repair Time |
|0.2 |0 |1 |
|0.45 |0.2 |2 |
|0.25 |0.65 |3 |
|0.1 |0.9 |4 |
Break |Random |Time between Break |Random |Repair |Random |Lost |Cumulative | |Down |r1 |downs x (weeks) |r2 |Time |r3 |Rvenue |Time Σx | |1 |0.129 |2.158 |0.520 |2 |2252 |450.4 |2.158 | |2 |0.331 |3.450 |0.092 |1 |5563 |556.3 |5.608 | |3 |0.413 |3.854 |0.642 |2 |5225 |1045 |9.462 | |4 |0.358 |3.588 |0.889 |3 |7515 |2254.5 |13.050 | |5 |0.571 |4.536 |0.606 |2 |3637

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