L.L Bean Forecasting

This then translates to a 50% chance of not having inventory available during job opportunities. Therefore, opportunity costs might occur. The indifference of the production managers' in these aspects of inventory control is alarming and should be acted upon.

However, forecast errors will also lead to unhappy customers, lost sales, and excessive inventory. To minimize errors, retailers should find the right demand forecast. Retailers do not want to have a lot of inventory sitting in the back room and too little inventory that will cause out of stock. Holding huge inventory will cause a retailer to have more expenses and decrease their profit if item is not sold especially if the product is innovative type like electronics. The challenge is to balance the inventory with demand. Communication and contribution from people in functional area is also important to create better information and improve overall accuracy. At this time, customer satisfaction will start to decrease. For example, MPRNews says one of Target loyal customer, Ann Hendricks, she is disappointed with target store in St.Paul. “Too many times, she says that store is out of the milk, coffee, bread, pasta and other staples she wants. At Target, sometimes the whole section of cheeses is blank. There's nothing in there” (Moylan). A loyal customer like Ann Hendricks goes to the Lunds & Byerlys store in downtown St. Paul to buy her grocery

The retailers had to estimate their customers’ demands well in advance of the selling season and place bulk orders for each season’s inventory. This involved high risk for the retailers as over-estimation would lead to unsold stock; whereas under-estimation led to stock outs and loss of potential sales.

L.L. Beans approach to a one shot order increases the risk of lost sales due to insufficient inventory as well as increases the risks of higher costs due to excessive inventory. The case indicates that lead times are significantly long from their suppliers (in the order of 8 to 12 weeks). We are not clear on the size of these orders but assuming these are mostly a one shot batch, it is feasible to estimate that these lead times would be reduced for a smaller quantity per order and more frequent orders. Although this approach would increase the transactional costs with suppliers (because a higher volume of individual orders would be placed at the supplier) it might generate significantly more impactful benefits such as:

High risk of huge inventory returns from the distributors if they are not able to sell in reasonable timeframe. This will increase huge sales return in B&L books in the following year.

The average lead time of a corporation is 15 weeks from production to consumption. Benchmark firms have a lead time of 8 weeks which is the goal for the supply chain (Heizer & Render 2010). The 8 week number will be achieved by analyzing opportunities to streamline the process thereby creating efficiencies and driving down the amount of time it takes to produce and ship products. Setting a goal for an 8 week lead time will give the firm an opportunity to assess their forecasting and production capabilities presenting a way to identify and address inefficiencies.

During the game, I realized that wide gaps in orders of every role in the supply chain such as factory, distributor and retailer create inventory management challenges. For example, distributor records 0units between week1-week 4 compared to retailer within the same period. The retailer records 3units, 5units, 2units and 2units between weeks 1- week 4. The same applies to factory with 0units from weeks 2-4. Addressing inventory management problems requires developing an average unit level to avoid disappointing customers when demand

The customers, wholesalers and retailers may order in large quantities with the expectation that they will receive a greater allocation of products that are in short supply. The impact on the supply chain is significant as the forecasted demand is greatly, and unrealistically, increased with these inflated orders. Eventually orders disappear and cancellations pour in, making it impossible for the manufacturer to determine the real demand for its products

By taking a more collaborative approach, major improvement could be made. One way is by embracing the concept of “Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment” (CPFR) which have been developed and successfully employed by leading food retailers. It foresees that data is shared and discussed actively between retailers and suppliers, e.g. by producing joint forecast on annual production volumes, also considering foreseeable flunctuations. With a better understanding of the mutual dependencies, the planning basisi could be improve and complexity reduced. On the short term planning basis, making aviable sales data collected in-store 9from the scanner-equipped cash registers) to suppliers in real time allows suppliers to produce more accuratelty to the actual demand, and thus reducing cost for buffers and excess inventory (Trebilcock 006). Of course, Aldi will have to receive a certain share of these benefits. Going one step further would be to add ”Category Management” to Aldi’s supplier collaboration approach to optimise assortment towards the end of customer needs.

Lead time varies significantly, which affects the inventory cycle. The plant has to set a safety stock that will protect the production against stock outs, vehicle breakdowns, weather related delays and the shortage of supply from farmers and hogs barns.

-With the tight order deadline with La Coruna, the store managers need on-time inventory balance to plan for the re-order point and optimal order quantity.

Tasks:  What should Alison do? o Develop plans to improve the inventory management o Develop time-based supply strategies to bring competitive advantages to the organization  Identify the functions and forms of inventory  What are alternatives for inventory management? o ABC classification o Supplier-managed inventories (SMI) o Just-on-time or Just-in-time (JIT) o Enhance the forecasting system (factor correlated with inventory variation)  Provide training programs for current and new hiring employees 1

Second, excess inventory will be reduced on items that have a lower demand. Third, there should be enhanced credibility with customers due to the better availability of product. Forecasting should also benefit scheduling and labor needs for production. Ultimately, there should be an increase in inventory for products with high demand, a decrease in overall inventory, and reduced operating expenses.

(FIFO) policy, minimum stock reorder for each item and periodic stock evaluation. One of the

8-1 a. In the contribution-margin approach, the break-even point in units is calculated using the following formula: