Leitax
2004
Leitax
2004
Analysis of the new forecasting process
Analysis of the new forecasting process
Assignment questions
1. Based on the description of planning system before the Redesign Project which function or individuals should be held responsible for the planning problems in FY 2002? In FY 2004?
In 2002, Leitax had suffered through poor planning of 3 camera models: the launch of one camera delayed (cost: $19.5 million), another outsold its inventory (costs: $4.5million) and a third model reported sluggish sales ($2.5million). To compensate, Leitax extended the life of an existing model and made a mad scramble to find product and customers but the most costumers preferred to wait for the delayed camera. These
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Moreover, the whole team didn’t do adequate forecasts which generated errors and costs for the company.
In 2004, the firm overestimated the demand for a new product family for the high end consumer market (need to extend the scheduled end-of-life by six months) and underestimated the cannibalization of the ShootXL by another newly introduced product the OptixR. Leitax didn't have a single, unified forecast to coordinate their operations. Sales developed their own projections, which production distrusted because the sales organization has the incentive to produce low-ball projections so they can "beat the mark." 2. Why focus on fixing the forecasts? What are the implications of a poor forecast?
Fixing the forecasts allows to build the communication between the different departments of a firm (communication between the operational staff, the financial staff, etc.). It should be also a guide for financial planning and monitoring the activity and the performance. It is a tool to evaluate profitability and productivity, to identify an eventual gap between actuals and OP (operating plan), and to fix it.
Having a poor forecast could generate a lot of costs. For example in this case, it was mentioned that one executive estimated the cost of this delay including lost sales and the opportunity cost of inventory, warehousing space, and capital totalized $19.5 million. The lost sales on the second camera were estimated to be about $4.5 million in gross
We adjusted focus to our niche market, sold off capacity in the low end and traditional markets, and proceeded to decrease our production going into the next round. While selling capacity was the correct financial decision to combat our emergency loan, we were then left with stock outs in all of our product lines. As a result, we continued to struggle with overproduction and avoiding stock outs, but made improvements resulting in less drastic inventory swings in the later
12. (A) Which of the following is not the responsibility of a system project manager? a. Determine what the system will do b. Detail the tasks of the project c. Determine how long each task will take d. Obtain the necessary personnel
The sales forecast is the basis for all the company’s budgets (e.g. production budgets, selling and administrative expense budgets, etc.). Understating the sales budget can have an adverse effect on the company as all the company’s budgets depend on the sales budget. Therefore, if the sales budget is understated the remaining budgets will follow suit. In the case of William George, marketing manager of Crunchy Cookie Company, understating the sales forecast is poor management style, an unethical practice, and can affect the ability to plan for future operations.
Issues are then identified but there seems to be no real focus on what drives success in local markets, or on what competitors will do and the impact of their actions. This approach can simply lead to ‘more of the same’, making a projection based on the previous year and no real change in approach, with the whole focus being on next year’s revenue. While many companies may not use such an apparently numbers-focused approach they still act in the same way, with the forecast being the key, rather than the rationale behind it.
Lack of efficient Quality Assurance, lack of backup planning and unwanted optimisms. The mistakes committed during the planning and designing phase aggravated and lead to the failure of the
The above projected sales forecast reflects a slow start as initial on-boarding of clientele is expected to be low in the first quarter. Initial sales target dictate focusing on securing yearly contracts as opposed to monthly. Additionally, sales generated from customized solutions and monthly packages are not factored in this sales forecast. The 2nd Quarter should provide for better sales figures as a result of the company’s networking and marketing campaign.
During performing the sales forecast for Victoria's Secret, I learned that for most part that Victoria's Secret has an incline in their profits. They have however hit a few bumps here and there. The causes of this could be more cost for Victoria's Secret purchasing materials and production of their products. Another reason for this could also be a slower rate in sales than usual. Like I said, for the most Victoria Secret has seen an incline in their profits and sales throughout the years. Performing the percentage of sales forecast for Victoria's Secret, I established a forecasted sales of 5 percent which means that they would have to have a sales of $2,808 compared to their last years $2,675. This is a very feasible number for Victoria Secret to achieve, considering that majority of their money in assets outweighs their liabilities.
Design and Development team designed Aerial as per specifications and subsequently the Production team came out with cost estimates of $550. Production team highlighted the fact that costs are high because of higher-end components and complexity involved in manufacturing. Concerns were raised by the Sales team about the price.
1.To determine what would be a successful forecasting tool for the strategic plan of Ms. Salinas.
It is difficult to predict our future revenues and appropriately budget for our expenses, and we have limited insight into trends that may emerge and affect our business. For example, during the three months ended March 31, 2012 and the years ended 2011, 2010 and 2009, we recorded quarterly revenues of as much as $58.2 million and as little as $18.6 million and quarterly operating losses of as much as $90.6 million and as little as $4.3 million. In the event that actual results differ from our estimates or we adjust our estimates in future periods, our operating results and financial position could be materially affected.
Product lives for digital cameras had been shortened. While an average life was between 17 and 22 months, high-end, feature packed products had the shortest life cycle. However, the manufacturing lead-time for digital cameras was long. Taking Leitax for
Given the ambition that the company had, of introducing the new product, using the same equipment, this analysis proved a major setback. This is despite the fact that the Production Manager had hoped that the new product would
However, forecast is never accurate, it is an estimation of numbers for managers to look at so they have a number to look at so they can purchase the products but forecast is a number that is close to the actual result.
This is the forecast for the next five years. As you can see the financial operating income is only 10% for your 2007 compared to the income in 2011. Therefore there is a 10% rise as per Wagner’s report. Jackson also expressed her concerns with the $2,000 retail price point and pushed Vyas to clearly identify the risks associated with the plan. After further consideration, the team developed a risk assessment and response matrix, which they included in the business plan. Therefore in case the product fails a third time there could be a drop in operating income.
Planning system weaknesses: To begin with, fundamental assumptions, such as new plants, inventory carryovers, packaging trends, etc., which are used for initial sales forecast, are entirely made by corporate headquarters. However, the divisional managers assume full responsibility for the estimates they submitted to the corporate head office. As a result, they have to make efforts to increase the overall accuracy of forecast and avoid making changes in subsequent reviews of the budget. Moreover, each product line uses the same forecasting method. It is ineffective for the company to make accurate budget since factors affecting each product line are different, such as industry trends, customer preferences and so on. Lastly, instead of plant managers, the district sale managers raise the sales budgets. However, the plant managers are held accountable for this budgeted profit number, which is connected with their performance and is not controlled by them.