Long And Short Term Effects Of The War On Sri Lankans Economic Growth

To avoid spurious results, unit root tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) (Dickey and Fuller, 1981) and Philips-Perron (PP) are performed to determine the time-series properties of the variables employed in the analysis. Two or more variables are said to be co-integrated when they exhibit long run equilibrium (relationship) if they share common trend(s).Therefore Auto-regressive distributed lag bounds approach (ARDL) is used to test it. The choice is based on several

This paper assess the positive and negative effects that peace and war, respectively, have on the distribution of foreign aid in the developing country Sierra Leone. Next I will analyze the specific actions that the leadership of the selected Sierra Leone has taken, through the use of its foreign aid from donor nations and international lending institutions, to relieve the severe problems caused by warfare. Lastly I will discuss whether or not the extension of foreign aid has successfully reduced poverty and the incidence of warfare in Sierra Leone.

Over the years, wars have increased. Today, countries like Iraq are devastated from wars and some people think it helps the economy even though it clearly doesn’t. World War II was horrible and ever since World War III is trying to be prevented as well. The economy needs a boost but wars decrease it by a tremendous margin and some countries are striving to regain their economy and population. The US still thinks that the Middle Eastern countries are hoarding oil, but they’re not helping in any possible way. Wars decline the economy in many ways. It increases taxes, decreases population, and causes inflation.

When the stock market goes up one day, and then goes down for the next five, then up again, and then down again, that’s what you call market volatility.

An increased spending by the military can engender some positive advantage via creation of employment as well as extra growth of the economy in addition contributing to the development of technology. This might give a multiplier effect which then gush on to other businesses. By looking into the state of the economy at each and every major conflict since world war II, it is prudent that the positive effect of a rise in military spending were overshadowed by longer term unintentional negative macroeconomic cost. As the stimulatory effect of military expenditure is evidently associated with boost in the growth of the economy, unpleasant effects turn up either immediately or later on, even if

Also, this estimation allows the using of a lagged dependent variable to check whether there is a possible cointegration in the economic variables, with the possibility of one variable forecasting another (Campbell & Shiller, 1988). Including the lagged dependent variable can reduce the occurrence of autocorrelation arising

In this project we first checked consistency and seasonality of S&P500 index stock performance by splitting its recent twenty years historical data into ten two year data and built ARIMA and GARCH models for each sub-period. We found that the models are considerably consistent before 2007-2008 sub-period, and there exists some minor seasonality in several subperiods, but no particular pattern can be identified for the whole period. We then tried to predict future return, volatility and VaR using the model we built for the last sub-period based on rolling forecast procedure. Though the fitted values of 10th sub-period model are

Additionally, I will also be testing for granger causality. In order to test for granger causality though we need to use variables which are stationary.

The independent variables are the following: Money supply (M2), monetary base, fed funds rate (FFR), consumer price index (CPI), expected Inflation (Mich), mortgage backed securities (MBS), Treasury securities, Baa, Aaa,baa10y, safety spread, QE1,

These leading economic indicators give the general direction that the U.S. economy is headed. The data indicates that there may be a slowing of growth within the economy. There is no strong indication of economic downturn, but the slowing of growth indicated could hint at an increased chance of downturn in the more distant future. Taking the lagging indicators into account as well, it can be seen that the U.S. economy has slowly grown as it was recovering from the 2008 downturn, but the future holds the possibility of slowing growth in certain

Considering the following regression model: BRi=β0++β1(Y)+β2(Z)+ui which connects the bank rate (BR) of Canada to foreign exchange rates(Y) and CPI(Z). In this model X1 and X2 are the corresponding independent variables exchange rates and CPI measured in decimals. There were three estimation methods that were used to estimate the model: The Durbin Watson test is used to test the presence of autocorrelation. The residual values from the regression analysis helps determine if there is a relationship between values that are lagged. The result of the Durbin Watson test lies between 0 and 4 and depending on the value it will show the presence or absence of autocorrelation. The value that is closer to 0 indicates that there is positive autocorrelation, 2 indicates that there is no autocorrelation and values approaching 4 indicate that there is negative autocorrelation. For the hypothesis testing I’ve used the F-Statistic testing, in the later section of the paper I will explain my findings and the results.

War has influenced economic history profoundly across time and space. Winners of wars have shaped economic institutions and trade patterns. Wars have influenced technological developments. Above all, recurring war has drained wealth, disrupted markets, and depressed economical growth.

To conclude, the past wars Britain took part in had affected its economy, especially, the wars by the beginning of the 20th century in which they weakened the economic position of Britain in the world. On the other hand, the wars Britain took during the end of the 20th century had a minimum effect on the British economy. Such as the First Gulf War which created the rise of oil prices. Additionally, the economic problems after the war were not the results of The Gulf war itself; however, they were because of the economic policies. From 1997 to 2001 the UK intervention in Kosovo, Sierra Leone, and Afghanistan also did not affect the British economy negatively and this was illustrated in the British economic performance during the years of wars.

One of the more enduring myths in Western society is that wars are somehow good for the economy. Many people see a great deal of evidence to support this myth, after all World War II came directly after the Great Depression. This faulty belief stems from a misunderstanding of the economic way of thinking.

The research data was analyzed using a statistical software called STATA. Before running the data for the regression analysis, panel unit-root test was performed to see if data is stationary over time so that it can be used in estimating the variables in question. The value of the variables in the model throughout the research period is not constant; that means, there are some periods where there are spikes. These periods of ups and downs in value of economic variables are called shock in economic jargon. The notion behind testing for stationarity is to identify whether the effect of such shocks is permanent or transitory. If the effect of such shocks is temporary, the subsequent values of the variables will return to their long term equilibrium suggesting that the data is stable even with the presence of shocks.