Lost Sales Forecast Essay

2512 Words Dec 7th, 2012 11 Pages
TERM- PAPER

Lost Sales Forecast

Table of Contents

Introduction 3
Carlson Department Store Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 4
Countywide Department Stores Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 5
Choosing the appropriate forecasting method 6
Trend and Seasonal Components in Forecasting 7
An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store 10
Conclusion 10

Introduction

The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31, 1996. The store was closed for four months (September 1996 through December 1996) causing our sales drop to $0. The task of this report is to analyze sales in
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From the above graph one can also observe that in past 3 years (years 1993-1995) the volume of sales in the month of September went down, and slowly went up again in October and November and usually reached its peak in December. The unusual behavior in September 1996 pulls our attention. For the first time in 4 years history we observe that the sales volume in September compared to August sales went up by 11.7 % whereas in September 1993 they were down by 8.6%, in September 1994 down by 15.3%, and in September 1995 actually down by 21.8%. The question is why
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