MSIS/620L Emerging Technologies

Satisfactory Essays
Gnapika Reddy Kudumula Sep 16,2017
MSIS_620L Emerging Technologies
Marcus. Ch.3. Hedging the Uncertainty Reflection Paper
“Technological change is not smooth. Positive and negative developments are hard to predict.”
Organizations must carefully invest in changing technologies to earn a profit. It is hard to estimate the technical success of a product and its market success. It is necessary that organizations recognize opportunities and threats, and generate moves that can facilitate successful commercialization. It is impossible to predict what will happen next in the market, so organizations must carefully invest and should be prepared for both the positive and negative outcomes as well as some surprises. To foresee the future and manage uncertainty organizations follow certain frameworks like following trends, relying on an expert’s opinion, conducting industrial analysis, searching for analogies from the past and constructing scenarios. All these frameworks rely on the past patterns and the present market conditions to analyze the future, but its certain that past does not fully reproduce itself in the future. These frameworks also help us to compare the events in the past to the events in future
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Answer: According to professor Michael Porter, the five forces are suppliers, customers, competitors, new entrants, and substitutes. The “plus” part of the model takes into account the elements outside the industry like technology, population and security, politics and economics, energy, and environment.
2) What is Baysean judgment approach?
Answer: Baysean judgment is based on learning. It offers more flexibility and room for adjustment in the face of unexpected developments and represents an improvement on the naive view that what happened earlier will occur again, but it does not entirely eliminate
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