Macroeconomics: Relationship between Inflation Rates and the Housing Market

The housing crisis of 2008 can trace its origins back to the stock market trends of the mid- to late 90 's. During a period of extended growth in the stock market, increased individual wealth among investors led to generalized increases in spending, including in the housing market. With more disposable income in the pockets of consumers, the demand for housing increased in the late 90 's. Due to the fact that homes are large projects and their construction takes a large amount of time, the supply of homes in the market is inelastic on the short term. Because of the fixed supply of homes, as per the law of supply, which

With the consistent increase of property prices and more personal debt than ever before, we assume that there’s a housing bubble in Australia. The statistics show that from 2008 till now, property prices have been going up as a result of increased mortgage debt. When it slows down, that could cause a property crash. We are sure that there’s a housing bubble, but we cannot confirm when it will finally burst although a few area in Australia has already met a decrease of house prices. There are 3 indicators of the housing bubble in Australia.

There are several factors that can influence the housing industry economically. Supply and demand coupled with price elasticity can affect the housing industry. Negative and positive externalities, wage inequality, and the monetary and fiscal policies can all have substantial affect the industry of new homes. It must also be determined exactly how the economy affects the industry in both positive and negative ways.

America’s 2008 recession brought on “falling home prices and tight credit; state- and local-government cuts; higher oil prices that stood in the way of economic growth (“Back from the,” 2012). The price of homes dropped significantly pushing the equilibrium price down resulting in a shortage and an increased demand for houses at lower rates. When this occurs, suppliers are motivated to start producing fewer homes until a new market equilibrium price and quantity are achieved. After America’s recovery in 2009, suppliers slowly began to produce more homes and since that time, house prices have gradually increased (“Back from the,” 2012).

Meanwhile, yearly house price inflation rates in the top 20 cities are running in line with the national trend. The cities with the highest rates of increase are Seattle (+12%), Portland (+10%) and Dallas (+9%). Lower tier property prices appear to be more volatile than their high end counterparts in both Seattle and Portland. Meanwhile, the three cities with the lowest rates of house price inflation are New York (+3%), Washington (+4%) and Cleveland (+5%). Furthermore, rising house prices appear to be having an adverse impact on affordability. According to the National Association of Realtors, rising prices are offsetting higher disposable incomes and stable mortgage rates, and affordability has consequently been declining since January 2015. Partly driving the increase in prices is a lack of available supply of existing single family homes for sale. The number of months’ of unsold inventory was just below 4 in March and availability has been gradually falling since 2014. Additionally, there is a relatively tight supply situation for new single family homes for sale, which is also helping to support prices.

Macroeconomics is an excellent tool for the analysis of the housing industry as something like a capital good, as a home is considered to be, cannot easily be studied in a short-term platform. Real estate is a good that costs several times more than an average persons annual income, in the United States that number is typically 7 times as much, and in the United Kingdom that number is 14 times as much. Several factors of both supply and demand directly impact the housing market on a macroeconomic scale. (Business Economics, 1)

It seems hard to believe that over ten years have elapsed since the peak of the US housing market in the previous economic expansion. Residential construction as a percentage of real GDP reached a zenith of 6.2% in 2005 Q3. The ensuing contraction saw this share decline -60% to trough at 2.5% of GDP in 2010 Q3. The current economic expansion began in 2009 Q3, but the sheer magnitude of the collapse made it virtually impossible for any subsequent housing recovery to impart the same outsized contributions to headline GDP growth compared to the previous cycle. This has consequently played a significant role in restricting the ability of the economy to shift into a higher gear of growth during the current

Dokko, Doyle, Kiley et all shows graphs of how the housing market climbed from 1974- 2001 with small periods of dips in the housing market. Housing prices began and all-time record climb points above the nominal house price. The inflation of house prices, increasing interest rates, and ease of access to mortgages set America on a course for disaster in the housing market.

House prices only go up right? This has been the one certainty of the Australian economy over the last 25 years.

Demand for housing, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, greatly outnumbers the supply available. Simple supply/demand economics tells us that this undersupply of property in the face of overwhelming demand will cause inflation. From March 2014 to March 2015, Sydney saw an average property price increase of 13.1% (ABS: Residential Property Price Indexes 2015). Currently, the RBA’s reaction to this is to play it safe by keeping cash rates at 2% (RBA: Monetary Policy Decision July 2015). The RBA want growth to be sustainable and long term on the Australian economy during a difficult time, but how does this affect the housing market? This lowers the risk of defaulted loans for buyers, particularly on fixed interest rate mortgages. ASIC chariman Greg Hedcraft says that Australia is experiencing a similar housing bubble to the U.S. pre GFC. This was caused by high interest rates and borrowers defaulting loans due to unexpected heightened interest rates, crushing the U.S. (and international) economy. However the RBAs recent interest rate decisions have been heavily criticised, with economists believing that these low interest rates, high consumer incentive to ‘buy now’, and predicted growing unemployment rates – peaking at 6.5% (Federal Budget 2015) could lead to future mortgage defaults and a large debt problem. Australia’s current economic state involving one

Housing demand includes household growth, real incomes, real wealth, tax concessions to both owner-occupied and rental housing, concessions to first homebuyers, returns on alternative investments, cost and availability of finance for housing and the institutional structure affecting housing finance provision (Yates, 2008). The growth in the number of households and in real income results in the increased pressure on housing demand.

This research topic is significant to the current property market in Singapore and its sudden increased demand for houses despite the economic downturn, exploring deeper as to whether the government policies were the real influential causes to this boom in property demand. It has relevance to the economic concepts of demand and supply, elasticity, inflation and monopolistic competition. This topic is worthy of investigation because it is a hot media topic in Singapore, and is widely debated in the country because it’s the most expensive household asset.[2]

Government policies and subsides have a sizable impact on property price, and demand. The government can temporarily boost demand with tax credits, deduction and subsidies. From the customers point of view

In this report, the question “How much of the changes in the median selling price of homes in a city can be explained by the changes in median income of that city?” is answered. Home ownership is an important aspect of one’s life stages, and home prices are determined by demand and supply. The demand curve is affected by the one’s income, such that as one’s income increases, one is more willing to pay a higher price for the same quantity of goods (Baye & Prince, 2014). However, there are many other factors that might affect the demand curve, e.g. no. of children, in the household, the perceived quality of education in the school district, or the number of job positions (filled or open) around the city. According to Burda

A difficult characteristic to understand about the housing market is how a price is given for a particular house. That price will be designated to that particular house alone. All houses have various pricing, so I can’t always assume that one will cost more or less than any other. The pricing for houses vary based on their characteristics. Each characteristic must be analyzed to determine its contribution or detraction toward the price. I have taken some of these characteristics and modeled the relationship between them and the price of real estate for a specific area.