Market Analysis : Edi Market

The Australian economy expanded 0.5% in the June quarter of 2016, slowing from a downward 1.0% growth in the previous quarter and slightly below market consensus of a 0.6% growth. It was the weakest expansion since the second quarter 2015, weighed down by net trade while investment was flat and final consumption remained steady. Through the year, the economy grew by 3.3%, accelerating from a 3.1% in the March quarter, which is the strongest expansion since the June quarter 2012, bringing the annual growth of 2.9% for the 2015-2016 financial year and going 100 quarters without experiencing a

2. Fulfillment costs increased from $2.50 to $2.53 due to a higher than expected cost of opening the new distribution center in Phoenix, Arizona.

The figure obviously had not return to pre-crisis level. Moreover, recent commodity prices had fallen significantly which will affect Australia’s short and long term economy.

Subsequently, appreciation has the opposite effect. The competitiveness of Australian exports will decline, however, overseas travel, the price of imported goods, and foreign investments will also fall, benefiting the consumer. (Reference).

Australia’s lack of international competitiveness as a result of geographical location and small population, as well as the decline of the manufacturing industry to overseas low cost producers, with the problem being further increased by the high AUD exchange rate, as a result of the mining boom. The fall in domestic production has led to an increase in imports and a fall in productive innovation compared to advanced economies has led to a rise in CAD.

The impact of globalisation has also changed the structure of Australia 's trade. There has been considerable growth in manufacturing and service industries with limited growth in the rural sector (Table 2). This reflects a combination of changes in world demand and domestic structural reforms.

Technology and Information Systems- the Company will continue to expand its e-commerce business in the future. Its e-commerce sales today gross over one billion. Its plan is to focus on continued profitability with online sales. Part of the plan included a full assessment of the online business to analyze the main areas of functionality and online improvements. It will also continue its Omni channel capabilities, which includes shipping to store and in-store pickup exclusively during the holidays. Due to the rapid growth of mobility, over 50% of its e-commerce sales

The Australian PMI has been mostly below 50 with an average of 47.98 in past 12 months and an average of 47.94 this year, which suggests a likely contraction in manufacturing. Fluctuation is expected due to its volatile nature but a large percentage change is likely to drive the economy. A 14.03% growth in July is expected to lead to an increase in the coming month but contraction may continue in 2015-2016. From these PMI figures, Australia’s economy might not be performing at its best. The industry might suffer

Unemployment: As can be seen in Fig 3 below, the unemployment rate in Australia has recently dropped below 5.8%, which is the lowest it has been for over 20 months. This is despite the economy struggling over the previous 12 months due to a fall in investment in the mining industry. This has led to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reducing interest rates on two occasions in the past 12 months to encourage the non-mining sectors of the economy to fill this void and invest in resources, but some businesses are still reluctant to spend money. NAB economist Tapas Strickland said he expected strong jobs growth to continue into 2016, stating “ The forward indicators, such as jobs ads, suggest employment growth of 2% a year, and when you do the calculations, that implies 20,000 (jobs added) per month”. (Guardian, 2015).

Within Australia’s current economic climate, a lower exchange rate provides more economic advantages than a high exchange rate. However, some experts argue that a higher exchange rate is overall beneficial for the economy through having an increased purchasing power, whilst others disagree. By having a lower exchange rate, a country is able to accelerate its exports industry, making exports cheaper abroad, in turn increasing demand for their goods. This report will discuss the recent trends in Australia’s exchange rate, in addition to exploring factors that influence the exchange rate and its impact on the trade industry. The effects of a depreciating

2011). A depreciating Australian currency is potentially inflationary, the depreciation of the Australian dollar lead to high Australian inflation rates, it cause a loss of export markets and reduce demand for Australian currencies. In this way, Australia’s inflation rates and costs are higher than its overseas competitors, at the same time domestic goods in Australia would be more expensive (Edge, K 2009). As well as inflationary pressures in Australia will increase, as imports would now be more expensive. This may increase pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates to defend its inflation target. With the result that Australian multinational corporations would cause it lost their overseas’ markets and customers, profit which from overseas would be decline and also pay for more interest

With high salaries being offered overseas, highly skilled labour has been drawn from the Australia, as the value of the Australian dollar is low. In recent decades, the Australian Government has been moving Australia into the International market place, with ongoing structural reform taking place. The reforms in include tariff, financial market, tax and labour market reforms, with enhancements of the national competition policy and foreign investment rules. In the early 1980s the Australian tariffs used to be high, with the import duty close to 60 per cent. However, the Motor Industry Development Plan in 1984, led to a reduction in the tariff assistance. Therefore, meaning that the tariff rate on passenger vehicles and parts declined by 2.5 percentage points each year during the year of 1988 until 2000, with another reduction of 5 per cent in 2005. The treasury stated that the prime focus of reforms has been subject to the private sector in Australia for more competition from both domestic and international sources, but to improve the performance of public utilities. Financial traders, such as the car manufacturing industry, rely on low inflation, low interest rates, low current account deficit, high growth, budget surpluses and a small public sector, in order to make

The industry is marked by Low revenue volatility and medium regulation level. Although industry globalisation is a critical stage and poses a major threat. However over the last five year the industry has boomed due to increase in consumer expenditure , after the recovery of Australian economy in 2010 the industry has started to positive upturn. The industry is expected to grow at annualized 3.3% to a total of $771.3 million.

There are three major economic factors that have combined contribution to FMG’s growth over the past 5 years, including the strong AUD , the amazing export feature due to the Chinese boom which drives up the commodity price and the interest rate decision by RBA. Australia dollar has appeared strong for the past 5 years and maintained at $6-$6.8 level for AUD/CNY at most time. It promised a high level of foreign income for Australia exporter. In 2009, China demanded almost 60% of the world’s iron ore to produce 47% of world’s steel production. It contributes the most to the price rocket from $31.78 to $180.6 US cents/mts in 5 years time. In addition, Australia borrowing cost remains high over the past few years which may alter the finance decisions of FMG.

In March 2015, Greg Jericho published an article called Weak, weak growth and six things about the state of Australia’s economy that outlined how in the past 6 out of 10 quarters the Australian