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Markets And International Monetary Fund

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Markets Want Greece in the Eurozone The fickleness of financial markets is a constant source of both frustration and amazement, particularly in the Eurozone. Having started last week concerned about the ramifications of a resounding “No” vote in Greece’s referendum about bailout terms imposed by the Troika, there was a strong rally in anticipation of deal eventually being signed between Greece and her creditors. Markets have, therefore, seemingly taken the view that the best known outcome is for Greece to remain in the single currency, regardless of the imperfections of any agreement. In the absence of substantial debt write-downs, however, the situation facing Greece remains dire. Both the US and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have …show more content…

Thus, this highlights the utter hypocrisy of the current negotiations surrounding Greece: both France and Germany, in fact, conveniently ignored the rules for the fiscal convergence criteria when it suited them. Neither country was sanctioned in a major way. France could well find itself in the firing line if it fails to prevent a Greek exit from the single currency. The sustainability of the current membership of euro has, therefore, not been laid to rest. Understanding Events in China Events in China took on a new level of intensity last week as the authorities attempted to stabilise the equity market. The weakness appears to be event-drive as opposed to being the result of economic malaise. In fact, recent economic data out of China suggests that recent stimulus measures appear to have had some traction. The event in question appears to be a large margin call being made by one of the main regulatory authorities. Recently, I mentioned that margin debt as a percentage of GDP was a relatively high 8%. The problem facing the authorities was sourcing where the trouble was emanating from. Margin debt can be originated from two sources: 1) licensed brokers, and 2) the so-called grey market within the shadow banking system. The origination split is roughly 50/50 between the two sectors. This is where the similarities end. At licensed brokers, margin credit can only be extended for up

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