Essay about Marriott Rooms Forecasting

2500 WordsDec 18, 201310 Pages
Marriott Rooms Forecasting Executive Summary In the case of the Hamilton hotel, Snow needs to make a decision as to if 60 additional rooms reservations should be accepted which could lead to overbooking (Weatherford & Bodily,1990). It is a problem of capacity utilization that is being faced in this particular case where revenue maximization is aimed while minimizing customer dissatisfaction. In this report the case is put forward and various methods have been chosen to come to a sensible conclusion. Firstly the raw data provided is used and the exponential smoothing model (ESM) is used to predict the outcome of guests on Saturday the 22nd of August. Next basic statistics are used and standard deviation is calculated with which the…show more content…
This would be used to forecast Saturdays adjusted pickup ratio taking into consideration the valleys and peaks of demand, which cannot be forecasted. Finally the forecast of the adjusted pickup ratio will be multiplied by the Saturday DOW index to get the unadjusted pickup ratio (Weatherford & Bodily,1990). Issue Statement The center of the case is to come to a decision as to the 60 additional rooms reservation is to be accepted. How managers are to maximize revenue capacity and predict efficient forecasts to make good decisions when handling reservations in the case of demand increasing forecasting and overbooking decisions if they are detrimental to customer loyalty. Analysis of the Problem The main problem in this case is maximizing capacity utilization. An offer for 60 additional reservations to be accepted or not is the question to which Snow, the reservation manager has though of examining the problem through Snow’s technique. One is to have a good forecast of the pickup ratio, which can be multiplied to the Tuesday bookings to get the estimate of the demand. One has to obtain the forecast of adjusted pickup ratio, which can be multiplied, to the Saturday DOW Index to obtain the unadjusted pickup ratio. Here is is trying to eliminate the DOW effect that exists and average the demand through the week (Weatherford & Bodily,1990). Then the
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