Mat 540 Week 1 Exercise Paper

Critically evaluate the assumptions on which your forecasts are based. What developments could alter your results? Is Mr. Cowins correct in his belief that Hampton can repay the loan in December?

10. The last step for week one calculations is to calculate the average value of k.

In the question, it defined date 1 as the first trading day of the study period. Date 0 which is one day before the first trading day Date 1. First of all, using excel to set up the time index column to arrange the date of the trading day. The range of the data is from date 0 to 1087.

Question 27: The fact that processes tend to be dynamic, rather than static, is a key principle of statistical thinking. Which of the following is a natural consequence of this fact?

4) Use exponential regression (or find a constant ratio) to determine an equation for the data.

Referring to Figure 6.2.3 and 6.3.3, it was proven that our model has problems that the sample data used does not represent the whole population. Therefore, this is one of the flaws in our research. A more constructive suggestion to eliminate this problem would be to extend the research with a larger sample size with longer time horizon. And if the sample size is large enough, the time series issue can be neglected.

We simply represent all the nodes by $D_i$ for $ 1\le i \le D_\mathcal{D}$ and $Y_k$ refer as the transmission probability gain of the node $D_i$ and $H$ is defined as the total weight. Given the contact rates and the transmission probability gain, $Y_k$ for $ 1\le i \le \mathcal{D}$, and $H$ can readily be computed. As $Y_k$ are continuous-valued real numbers, we need to quantize these transmission probability gain to run the dynamic optimization procedure i.e.,

“t” is the trial’s number and C is another constant. The C value we use is the average C value of each date point C=0.1925. So z=0.1925*e^(1.0844*t)

7. Make another graph that shows the total value of each stock for every week that you owned it. These should be different colored lines on

6. Request for forecast accuracy KPI, if not available calculate. Forecast accuracy should be measure

Year two and year three quarterly forecasts were calculated using the same percentage. This may be adjusted as more distinct patters emerge.

Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five week’s and three weeks’ past data. The past data in each region is given

Starting with week 3 and ending with week 11, forecast registration using a two-week moving average.

The procedure for this model is to collect several periods of history relating to the independent and dependent variables themselves, establish the relationship that minimizes mean squared error of forecast vs actual using linear or non-linear and singular or multiple regression analysis.

The first step in analysing the cash flow is the demand forecast to telecommunication service in South Korea, this estimation is correlated to with the competition, historical demand, income and population, Jeff Madura, Roland Fox (2007). These was analysis because it is an indicated of the profit possibilities for the investment project. The demand for telecommunication services in South Korea is high this refers to low uncertainty, the proposed project is large enough to support the management time on the project analysis (