1. INTRODUTION
This report aims at implement two distinct approaches, which can indicate the expected return and risk of a two-stock portfolio, to generate a practical solution to risk-analyzing for stock-investing. The two approaches are Mean-Variance Approach and CAPM Approach. While we apply the Mean-Variance Approach to determine the expected return and standard deviation, we employ the CAPM approach to measure the beta and expected return of each stock. The calculations of the aforesaid mathematical characteristics will contain the weekly returns during a seven-year time period integrated with the ASX all ordinaries Accumulation Index as a substitute for the market index and Official Cash Rate (thereafter, OCR, which is the interest
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As for the portfolio, the expected return for a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected rates of return for the individual investments in the portfolio. The variance of the portfolio returns is a weighted sum of the covariance and variance terms associated with the assets in the portfolio. 41 possible portfolios contains DJS and BHP with different weights starting at 100% invested in BHP and increasing the weight at 2.5% intervals until it reaches 100% in DJS.
See Appendix A3 for the table
|Portfolio No. |DJS |BHP |Expected Return |Standard deviation |
|1 |0.00% |100.00% |0.535115% |4.866364% |
|22 |52.50% |47.50% |0.525368% |4.179564% |
|… |… |… |… |… |
|41 |100.00% |0.00% |0.516550% |4.776287% |
The following line graph displays the 41 possible portfolios. The x-axis shows standard deviation, while the y-axis in the graph shows expected return. The graph
Billy should a diversified portfolio, but buy more health and technology stocks because they are at low prices and are more bullish. For example, IBM is at $149.25. The 52 week low is 116.9 and the 52 week high is 176.3. If Billy buys 10 shares, he should have at least a 2% (total purchase price ÷ money gained/loss x 100) expected return on the stocks. If Billy buys 10 shares of JNJ at $108.97, he would get at least 3% return. The 52 week low for JNJ is 81.79 and the 52 week high is 109.84. This shows that JNJ is closer to its high, so Billy would most likely make a dividend off of
The ten-year bond rate (risk free rate) is 5%. The proportion of the two industries in Davo Corps investment portfolio is as follows: Mining 60% and Alcohol 40%.
d. What is the expected return on a portfolio that is equally split among A, B and the risk free asset? The expected return on the risk free asset is 4%. 9.27%
In this case, the Partner’s Treasury Department has computed all the portfolios for minimum level of risk with different types of assets, more specifically, adding Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Commodities or both, from an undefined approach. Since the results are identical as calculated from Mean-Variance Theory, they should be the optimal portfolios for each target level of return. Therefore a graph with efficient frontier, which represents the optimal portfolios with different assets, is constructed based on Exhibit 5 to 8 for comparison. [Appendix B] Technically, any portfolio on the efficient frontier is an optimized portfolio and is indifferent from each other in terms of risk/return trade off.
d. What would be the investor 's certainty equivalent return for the optimally chosen combination? 2. Consider an investor who has an asset allocation of 50% in equities and the rest in T-Bills. Suppose the expected rate of return on equities is 10%/year and the standard deviation of the return on equities is 15%/year. T-Bills earn 6%/year. a. What is the implied risk aversion coefficient of the investor?
As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)
So the investor will invest 81.76160279% of the investment budget in the risky asset and 18.23839721% in the
Even though there are flaws in the CAPM for empirical study, the approach of the linearity of expected return and risk is readily relevant. As Fama & French (2004:20) stated “… Markowitz’s portfolio model … is nevertheless a theoretical tour de force.” It could be seen that the study of this paper may possibly justify Fama & French’s study that stated the CAPM is insufficient in interpreting the expected return with respect to risk. This is due to the failure of considering the other market factors that would affect the stock price.
The remaining alternatives for this client are to invest in U.S. Rubber, a market portfolio, and a 2-stock portfolio of High Tech and Collections. The expected rates of return are 9.8% in U.S. Rubber, 10.5% in a market portfolio, and 6.7% in the 2-stock portfolio.
This quote discussing the diversification of Antonio’s investments in the first act of Shakespeare’s play “The Merchant of Venice” was written in the 16th century. But it wasn’t until 1952 that Harry Markowitz wrote his paper “Portfolio Selection” that made him “the father of modern portfolio theory”(Markowitz, 1999). Since then, the use of statistical tools by financial professionals has become very common. In this report, the performance of Microsoft Corp. (hereinafter called MSFT) and Apple Inc. (hereinafter called Apple) will be analysed, by looking at both monthly and yearly, simple and excess returns. First, the descriptive statistics of each individual stock will be examined, and the “Efficient Frontier” and “Capital Market Line” will be drawn, then the performances of the two shares against each other will be compared, and finally an examination of the performances of both companies using CAPM. All the calculations are found on an excel file that will be referenced throughout this report.
According to investment glossaries, a risk is a future probability of loss inherent in any investment (Investopedia Financial Dictionary, 2016). To this day, the positive correlation between risk and return continues to be the cornerstone of financial theory. The basic capital asset pricing model (CAPM) formula is built on this relationship. CAPM provides the required return based on the level of systematic risk of an investment. The risk associated with an investment is taken to lie along a scale. On the low-risk end of the scale, there are low yielding government bonds and securities. At the middle of the spectrum are medium performing investments – such as high yielding loan notes, and rental property. At the far end of the scale – high-risk – are futures, options, and equity investments. However, the positive relationship between risk and return does not guarantee that taking a greater risk will result in higher returns. Rather, a higher risk may lead to the loss of a greater amount of capital. This paper seeks to examine the risk and return relationship and how investors can determine the optimal trade-off.
Harry W. Markowitz, the father of “Modern Portfolio theory”, developed the mean-variance analysis, which focuses on creating portfolios of assets that minimizes the variance of returns i.e. risk, given a level of desired return, or maximizes the returns given a level of risk tolerance. This theory aids the process of portfolio construction by providing a quantitative take on it. It integrates the field of quantitative analysis with portfolio management. Mean variance analysis has found wide applications both inside and outside financial economics. However it is based on certain assumptions which do not hold good in practice. Hence there have been certain revisions to it, so as to make it a more useful tool in portfolio management.
‘Portfolio theory and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are essential tools for portfolio managers and other stock market investors’
The capital asset pricing model, also called CAPM, is created by William Sharpe, John Lintner, Jack Treynor and Jan Mossin in 1964, aiming to study the decision process of security price in the market. With proper assumptions on investors’ behavior, the capital asset pricing model pays the most attention to the exploration of quantified relationship between security return and the risk. However, academic community is turning away from the classical model and tries to analyze the relationship with other tools. This essay will mainly discuss the reasons why academic community is avoiding the CAPM. In addition, the relationship between risk and return will firstly be explained. More details on fundamental features of the CAPM will be given out. Empirical evidence will be adopted to illustrate the CAPM.
The CAPM bases the required rate of return on equity of a company based on an assumption of linearity between the level of risk a security carries and its returns. Variance has been widely used as a measure of risk, usually represented as the standard deviation of the returns of a given security. The relationship of risk and reward is the product of the security’s covariance divided by the covariance of the market,