Methods Of Using Numerical Uncertainty Information

1555 Words Oct 4th, 2016 7 Pages
Deliberate thinking. Limitations in the ability to utilize numerical uncertainty information could also be more general than numeracy, such as the failure to think deliberately about the information. According to the two systems approach, there are two modes of thought. System 1 is rapid, automatic, associative, emotional, and roughly synonymous with intuition, and System 2 is slow, deliberate, rule-based, and effortful (Kahneman, 2003). When faced with a decision, a person may substitute an inaccurate verbal “gist” for the numeric estimate given which would lead to worse decisions. This attribute substitution is a System 1 process: the automatic substitution of an easier interpretation for a more difficult one (Kahneman & Frederick, 2002). A person who also employs System 2, which is deliberate and systematic, may be more likely to take into account all of the relevant factors, including precise numerical information, especially when likelihood is low but it is appropriate to take action. In other words, they have the mental restraint needed to avoid making rushed decisions. Previous research shows that in the domain of losses, the individuals who relied on system 1 made worse use of risk information, choosing a risky gamble with a lower expected value over a sure loss (Frederick, 2005). People with a more analytical/systematic processing style are also less susceptible to framing effects (McElroy & Seta, 2003). Thus relying on system 1 may decrease the ability to utilize…
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