Modeling Of Forecasting Inflation On Nepal Essay

Inflation is one of the most talked about words in society that causes a big problem in economics today. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services and a decline in the purchasing value of money. This exists when the money supply surpasses the goods and services that are available. For this commentary, I chose to pick the article In a Venezuela Ravaged by Inflation, ‘a Race for Survival’ that deals with the topic inflation.

There are only a few ways to increase production, which include hire more workers, increase hours, buy more equipment, and take advantage of technology to produce more. The government must form a way that the economy doesn’t grow too slow or fast so they can prevent disastrous events. The importance of modern currency lies in its purchasing power. Inflation signals the rising prices, but the way to think about it isn’t like that, but that the currency’s purchasing power decreases. With hyperinflation, fixed loans are impossible because nobody wants to risk it when the money can potentially become worthless. With moderate inflation, it can destroy wealth if it isn’t managed properly. Inflation is good for those who owe debt, but bad for those who lend money. Inflation may be bad, but deflation is worse. Prices fall because the economy is broken, but now the economy is broken because the prices have fallen.

Levin, A. T., Johannsen, B. K., & Beechey, M. J. (2011). Are long-run inflation expectations anchored more firmly in the euro area than in the united states?. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(2), 104 - 129. doi:

Inflation doubled in 2007 and reached a peak at 28% in 2008.The fiscal make up 4-5% GDP and the trade deficit accounted for 20% GDP in which approximately $US17.5 billion dollars. The influence of high fuel combine with food prices and high domestic demand lead to high inflation. The high price of fuel in Vietnam illustrates global fuel prices and the high domestic demand of country importing fuel. Furthermore, the increase in global food prices affect detrimental to the high inflation in Vietnam.(Figure 2)

“Provide Summary Level Paper (limit 10 pages) “Purpose and Practice of Inflation Forecasting by Nation” – for insertion after the “Measures of Inflation”

It widely recognized that the monetary policy within a country should be primarily concerned with the pursuit of price stability. However, it is still not clear how this objective can be achieved most effectively. This debate remains unsettled, but an increasing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. (Dr E J van der Merwe, 2002) This topic of Inflation targeting is a subject which immediately conjures different perceptions from different people. Many feel that low inflation should be a main aim of monetary policy, while others (such as trade union activists) believe that a higher growth rate to stimulate jobs should be the main concern.

The purchasing power parity hypothesis implies that an increase in inflation in one country relative to another will over a long period of time

EBBD management team asked for an analysis, be performed on the current forecasting methods and the prediction methods utilized by EBBD, what alternative techniques are available, and how improvements can be made on their short-term forecasting on the monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. Long-term forecasting is also of interest to them, 3 or 4 years. Finally yet importantly, they want to find a method of generating quarterly inflation forecasts (Frohne, 2008).

A lot of literatures have already studied about the inflation and inflation prediction and in this paper literature review will be discussed from the theoretical aspect and empirical aspect. The researches of the inflation, which are studied, by a lot of scholars in the field of economics have been conducted for a long time especially during the 1970s and it is the heyday when people would like to pay more attention to research the inflation. The inflation has become a hot topic among the economic life and social life since 1987. However, no matter whether it is in the western economic field or in the Chinese economic field, people have different definitions on the inflation and so far there is no unified opinion and conclusion can be accepted generally by everyone. For example, Wyplosz and Burda (1997), Blanchard (2000), and Barro (1997) define that inflation is a sustained rising in the overall price level of products and services in an economy throughout the time period. By contrast, Zha and Zhong (2016) define that inflation is considerable as the mechanism to improve economic growth. In general, the common definition of the inflation is that the inflation is a continuous rising process in the aspect of price. In other words, the value of the currency decreases continually.

The relationship between inflation and unemployment is a topic, which has been debated by economists for decades. It is this debate that has made the opinions about it evolve. In this essay, the controversial topic will be discussed by viewing different economists’ opinions on that according to time sequencing.

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation also reflects an erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the Consumer Price Index) over time.

In the 70’s Friedman developed his theory of inflation on the correlation of inflation and unemployment on the basis of a critical analysis of the (Keynesian) Phillip’s curve. The key elements in the examination of the mutual links between the inflation process and the situation in the labor market are in his construct a natural rate of unemployment, (adaptive) expectations of inflation, as well as a

The density forecast of a random variable is an estimation based on the past observed data. This is a symmetric interval prediction which means that the outcomes will fall into an interval that is a band of plus/minus a fixed times of standard errors. The estimation provides a probability distribution of all possible future values of that variable. Over the past decades, the price density forecast has been widely used to study microeconomic and financial issues. Forecasting the future development of the economy is of great importance for proper government monetary decisions and individual risk management. A good macroeconomic density forecast presents a subjective description of inflationary pressure and other information related to economics.

Inflation is blazing subject that delays the economic development of the country. It is becoming extra hectic to economists, politicians and even people also. Factors on both demand and supply effect the inflation. So the stabilization strategies ought to consequently focus on both demand manipulation as well as

Forward Guidance is an unconventional monetary policy used by the central bank to provide path for future interest rates to individuals and businesses. Recently, the Bank of England has adopted this policy. In this essay, we will explain the rationale behind the use of this policy with the help of IS-LM model along with AD-AS model. The IS-LM model explains the relationship between interest and income level and changes in equilibrium level through the use of monetary and fiscal policy. Therefore, will be adequate in explaining the logic for applying this policy. Whereas, the AD-AS model may help in analysing the inflation condition of this policy.