Modeling Suburban And Rural Residential Development Beyond The Urban Fringe

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Modeling Suburban and Rural-Residential Development beyond the Urban Fringe The authors David A. Newburn and Peter Berck looked at how land use regulations differentially influenced suburban versus rural-residential development in exurban areas. Exurban areas are defined as an area that “extends beyond the built-up urban and contiguously developed suburban areas, but not into the true hinterlands beyond the commuting range of the city centers and their edge cities” (Nelson and Sanchez 1997). The journal looks at a county in California that enacted urban growth boundary regulations (UGB) that placed limitations on sewer and water extensions as well as minimum-lot-size restrictions (zoned maximum-residential density). To determine how the restrictions affected the development densities the county was broken up into four zones based on proximity to sewer and water. The individual zones were then divided farther into parcel attributes and proximity to major roads and centers. Newburn and Berck chose the Random Parameter Logit Model (RPL) to arrive at their conclusions. Methodology Newburn and Berck obtained land parcel records from the local county office. The records were from 1993 and showed lot size, date of last subdivision, number of single-family units and year built. The data was then imputed over a base map from 2001 using GIS software. This allowed the researchers to easily see what had been developed and at what densities. The densities were broken down into five

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