Moody 's Keeps Australia 's Triple A Credit Rating Despite Rising Debt Essay

The Australian economy expanded 0.5% in the June quarter of 2016, slowing from a downward 1.0% growth in the previous quarter and slightly below market consensus of a 0.6% growth. It was the weakest expansion since the second quarter 2015, weighed down by net trade while investment was flat and final consumption remained steady. Through the year, the economy grew by 3.3%, accelerating from a 3.1% in the March quarter, which is the strongest expansion since the June quarter 2012, bringing the annual growth of 2.9% for the 2015-2016 financial year and going 100 quarters without experiencing a

The figure obviously had not return to pre-crisis level. Moreover, recent commodity prices had fallen significantly which will affect Australia’s short and long term economy.

Australia’s net foreign debt to GDP ratio has grown dramatically during the period of globalisation. After rapid growth in the 1980s’ foreign debt stabilised at roughly 35% of GDP, this was party due to a higher level in asset sales being used to fund the CAD instead of increased debt. Debt began to increase again the late 1990’s, this was due to a decrease in the value of the Australian dollar, because most of our debt had been borrowed in foreign currency’s, the depreciation increased the Australian dollar value of our foreign debt. The slower rate of growth in debt and overall liabilities in the past few years reflect the lower level of current account deficits. The growth in net foreign debt has eased slightly since the global financial crisis of 2008-09 but is now around 50% of GDP.

There are numerous reasons for the sudden decline in value of Australian currency, one of which is the renewed strength of the US dollar, due to the American economy’s acceleration through its recovery. However, there is the additional fact that the RBA has been cutting interest rates, resulting in Australia becoming a less attractive place for investors, as well as the continual impacts of deteriorating commodity prices

In this sense the GFC actually helped Australia’s foreign debt issue as people cut back there was less demand for imported goods. (Fact Check, 2014) Not only is paying of these domestic demand debts sending our profits overseas, but an increase in domestic demand can impact Australia’s balance of payments as people borrow to pay for larger imports. This graph shows Australia’s increasing

Australia’s lack of international competitiveness as a result of geographical location and small population, as well as the decline of the manufacturing industry to overseas low cost producers, with the problem being further increased by the high AUD exchange rate, as a result of the mining boom. The fall in domestic production has led to an increase in imports and a fall in productive innovation compared to advanced economies has led to a rise in CAD.

First we must look and account for the causes for the recent trends in balance of payments. This is very important as it reflects key features of the structure of the economy and highlights the imbalances in the relationship between Australia and the economy. In particular, we must inspect the current account deficit (CAD), which is when the debits are greater than the credits recorded as a percentage of GDP and is an accurate indicator of the economy’s current position.

According to easynomics.com, from Q3 2012-Q2 2015, there was a confirmed upward trend with real GDP rising which translates to approximately 2.26 percent annual growth rate. Although the increase rate is too slow that people may not feel the recovery, but it does suggest the increase.

Within Australia’s current economic climate, a lower exchange rate provides more economic advantages than a high exchange rate. However, some experts argue that a higher exchange rate is overall beneficial for the economy through having an increased purchasing power, whilst others disagree. By having a lower exchange rate, a country is able to accelerate its exports industry, making exports cheaper abroad, in turn increasing demand for their goods. This report will discuss the recent trends in Australia’s exchange rate, in addition to exploring factors that influence the exchange rate and its impact on the trade industry. The effects of a depreciating

Those who argue that the ending of mining is not the ending of the economy and that the construction investment could offset the mining sector slump may be misled. They, together with those who assert that the ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus have ample powers to lift the economy should clearly realise the following: the plunge in mining investment, the down turn in construction industry, the restriction in fiscal and monetary actions all signal that the Australian economy is sliding to sluggish. This low growth condition will continue for several years to come; it seems there is no room for

The Australian economy has continued to grow at a moderate pace and activity is rebalancing away from the resources sector towards non-resource sectors. Even though the available data suggest that GDP continued to grow at a below-trend pace over 2016, employment growth was above average and the unemployment rate fell by around ½ percentage point. In part, employment growth appears to have reflected the relatively strong growth of output in the more labour-intensive sectors of the economy, such as household services. Growth of goods-related production has picked up more recently, but remains modest overall.

The Chart 4 shows the composition of Australia’s economy with the value added by each industry in the year 2014. Though mining still enjoys a high contribution to the economy, it is on a slow decline and will continue declining as the composition shifts. A variety of factors can affect the decline such as depletion of natural resources, climate change and change in strategy by the government. The technological know-how & progress along with high exchange rate has had an impact on the composition. Thus,

The current rate of GDP growth, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is 2.7% (for Q3), and it was 1.3% in Q2 of this year. This rate reflects relatively slow growth, with challenges remaining in the domestic market and with sluggishness in Europe suppressing exports to that region. The rate of GDP growth is predicted to slow to a decline of 0.5% between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013, the US re-entering recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office's projections. These projections are based on the provisions of the Budget Control Act being enacted, though any observers are doubtful that this will occur.

The second key national interest of Australia is the economy. Australia’s capital, jobs, standards of living, technological innovations and social advances rely substantially on exports and commodity values within Southeast Asia and the Pacific (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2016a). The stability of South East Asia and the Oceania

There are three major economic factors that have combined contribution to FMG’s growth over the past 5 years, including the strong AUD , the amazing export feature due to the Chinese boom which drives up the commodity price and the interest rate decision by RBA. Australia dollar has appeared strong for the past 5 years and maintained at $6-$6.8 level for AUD/CNY at most time. It promised a high level of foreign income for Australia exporter. In 2009, China demanded almost 60% of the world’s iron ore to produce 47% of world’s steel production. It contributes the most to the price rocket from $31.78 to $180.6 US cents/mts in 5 years time. In addition, Australia borrowing cost remains high over the past few years which may alter the finance decisions of FMG.