New Hampshire Primaries Analysis

On September 9, 2014, three individuals voted in the New Hampshire Republican primary election. Leon Rideout, a candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives, proudly photographed his ballot, indicating that he had voted for himself, and posted it to twitter. Brandon Ross, another candidate for a place in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, also took a picture of his marked ballot, a memento he would post as a challenge to Attorney General’s Office. Finally, Andrew Langlois, a New Hampshire voter, posted a picture of his vote, in which he demonstrated his distaste for the Republican field by writing in the name of his deceased dog. Each individual was promptly informed that he was being investigated for posting a picture of his ballot on social media, a violation of New Hampshire’s recent amendment to section 359:35, I of the New Hampshire Revised Statutes, “prohibition shall include taking a digital image or photograph of his or her marked ballot and distributing or sharing the image via social media or by any other means” (RSN § 359:35, I). Violating the statute could result in a fine of up to $1,000 (Hannon). As a result, the American Civil Liberties Union filed a lawsuit against the state of New Hampshire on behalf of the three plaintiffs described above. New Hampshire claims that the new law helps to maintain voter integrity by preventing vote buying or voter coercion. The ACLU, however, looks upon the new legislation as a clear restriction on

Texas senator, Ted Cruz, won Iowa’s caucus vote for the Republican’s presidential race. Ted Cruz is in strong opposition in what Obama has done and has rallied voters who agree with him. His campaign promises to defend against terrorism and repeal Obama’s healthcare program. Many other candidates found it difficult to get a caucus vote and have decided to drop out of the presidential race. Former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, dropped out of the race. Many of the other governors barely got support according to the recent Iowa

When the words “swing state” are mentioned, Florida is perhaps one of the first states a person may think of. In this year’s election cycle, the story is no different. Florida has a single senate seat up for election, and Marco Rubio (R), and Patrick Murphy (D) are hoping to claim it on November 8th. Marco Rubio has held that seat since the last senate election in 2010, giving him an edge as the incumbent. Patrick Murphy is the challenger and has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2012. A glance at any polling numbers shows Rubio ahead, and most have shown him ahead since the beginning of the race. The polls do not show a commanding lead, as one may expect from an incumbent. While polling margins are slimmer than many average incumbents, money has not stopped flowing to Rubio. His finances are typical of an incumbent particularly that of a closely contested race. It may be impossible to tell which has the greater effect of Rubio’s fundraising. In states that are typically swing states and have close political races, simple analyses such as incumbency advantage may not fully explain the results and polls in the race.

Two months ago, Kasich became the last GOP candidate to drop out, making Trump the presumptive nominee. If he would have gone forward, Kasich told the crowd he would have told voters things that weren't true.

Senator Cruz has done very poorly and after his New York performance, which was a total disaster, he is in free fall and as everyone has seen, he does not react well under pressure. Also, approximately 80% of the Republican Party is against him. Governor Kasich, who has only won 1 state out of 41, in other words, he is 1 for 41 and he is not even doing as well as other candidates who could have stubbornly stayed in the race like him but chose not to do so. Marco Rubio, as an example, has more delegates than Kasich and yet suspended his campaign one

The Republican party wants to stop Donald Trump from becoming president. In Washington, Mr. Kasich’s persistence in the race has become a source of frustration. The event is occurring in the United States. All Americans are impacted on this event. According to Karl Rove the nomination would be catastrophic, dooming the party in November. I think that Donald Trump should not be president if everyone is worried about

Typically, potential presidential candidates that secure wins in the early states during the primary sequence gain tremendous support going into the following elections. According to Mayer and Busch, victory in the New Hampshire primary increases the expected total primary votes of the candidate by 26.6 percent (Mayer and Busch 107). Increased attention in the media drives up the popularity and support of candidates, and success in the early primary states offers a massive boost of positive media attention. Approximately 50% of total primary coverage in the mass media is centered around Iowa and New Hampshire, the better part of which is dominated by the winners (Mellman). Members of parties typically want to maximize the chance that the candidate they support will win in the future. When candidates win early primaries, it also signals to party members and elites that the candidate can win, and is therefore, a viable option for the party. Oppositely, losses in the early primary are often interpreted as signal of weakness, and can deter voters in the future primaries.

The current political rhetoric, situation and attitude are so polarizing that most citizens are looking forward to the 2020 Presidential Election. Senator Bernie Sanders is still a popular choice for Independents. Senator Sanders is appealing to Independent voters because

In the American Political life, Massachusetts and Alabama considered as yin and yang. Therefore, any candidate who has primary elections in those states is might be a lock for his/her party’s nomination. However, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton got those states and got a really high score on Super Tuesday as well, storming to big delegate victories. On the other hand, each of the other candidate won his important or what they call it home states. Ted Cruz won Texas. Marco Rubio took Minnesota. Bernie Sanders got Colorado, his home state. Nevertheless, Super Tuesday turned out to be a wild ride.

The dictionary defines primaries as, "an election in which members of the same political party run against each other for the chance to be in a larger and more important election". [Merriam-Webster "primary"] There are many different types of primaries. A few of these types are closed, open, mixed and blanket. They all serve the same purpose but I believe it is important to recognize the differences between them.

The Democratic campaign was heating up in Nevada as Hillary Clinton faced off against Bernie Sanders. Many thought Hillary Clinton would win the state of Nevada of her having her campaign their often.Last Month, She was 25 point favorite in the state. But, Bernie Sanders who barely had his campaign in Nevada started rallies in Las Vegas gathering as much as 1,700 people in the state. Hillary Clinton ultimately won the state of Nevada she won the vote 52.6% to 47.3%. If Bernie Sanders won the caucus it would have been a huge boost on his campaign to become a U.S president.

Bernie Sanders has won eight of the last nine primary contests by double digits, but Clinton still came out on top with more delegates.

The debate opened with some confusion as candidates Ben Carson and Donald Trump missed their cues to enter the debate stage and moderators forgot to call Ohio governor John Kasich to the stage. Once all was settled the moderators commenced

Throughout his entire campaign, Kasich has posted consistently low numbers in the polls. Ranging between 1.4% and 5% on the national poll since July 21, 2015, he has not found the overwhelming support one would expect from someone that has been involved in politics since the late 70’s. His polling numbers in Iowa, 1.6%, and Florida, 1.5%, as of January 8th, 2016, line up consistently with his national average, 1.7%. However, Kasich posted the 4th highest average among Republican candidates for the state of New Hampshire (as of January 8th) with 10.2%. It is unlikely, with polling numbers this low and this late in the race, that Mr. Kasich will be able to implement any of the significant changes he’s advocated since the beginning of his campaign.

The introduction to electoral primaries widened my perspective of the presidential elections. I learned the different kinds primary procedures utilized across the country. To promote voter participation, an open primary is used. Caucus methods being one version of electoral primary, however, is among the least used in the US.