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Nike Case Study

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In July 2001, NorthPoint Group, a mutual-fund management firm, sought to buy Nike shares for $42.09 per share. Kimi Ford, the portfolio manager, was in a dilemma as some analysts such as Lehman Brothers recommended a strong buy, while others such as USB Warburg and CSFB were against a buy. Kimi decided to find out for herself by developing her own discounted cash flows. She found that Nike at a price of $42.09 is overvalued at a 12% discount rate, but a quick sensitivity analysis revealed that Nike was undervalued at a discount rate below 11.7%. She then had her assistant, Joanna Cohen, calculate the cost of equity. The central issues addressed are:
Is $42.09 per share a “reasonable” price to offer for the Nike shares i.e. based off Kimi Ford’s core assumptions, will it allow NorthPoint Group to earn a sufficient return on its investment?
Did Joanna Cohen calculate the WACC correctly?
Did Kimi Ford make reasonable assumptions for the forecast model?

Kimi Ford’s Assumptions

After consulting several analysts, Kimi Ford did not have a clear direction on whether or not she should buy Nike stocks so she developed her own cash flow forecast. Ford forecasted a revenue growth rate starting at 7.0% in 2002 and eventually plateauing at 6.0% after 4 years. COGS/Sales is forecasted to start out at 60%, but drop to 58% after 8 years. S&A/Sales is forecasted to start out at 28% and decrease to 25% after 6 years. The other assumptions remain unchanged for the rest of the forecast; Tax

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