Note On Unemployment Rates Are Drawn From The Bureau Of Labour Statistics

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Note: Unemployment rates are drawn from the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ website. http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet. GDP per Capita data is drawn from the World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2015&locations=US&start=2006. Based on these indicators, it is fairly clear that, at least in a macroeconomic sense, the US economy is doing well. Based on Vavreck’s theory, we should therefore expect that Clinton runs a clarifying campaign, focused on the economy, while Trump should be running an insurgent campaign, trying to move focus away from the economy. However, in order to test Vavreck’s we need to look at what each candidate is doing to see if they are following what Vavreck theory says is the rational…show more content…
The results are reported in table 1. While Clinton is addressing the ‘economy’ substantially more than Trump, almost 7% of Clinton tweets explicitly address the economy were as only 1% of Trump’s tweets do, it is not the most commonly mentioned words mentioned by Clinton. Vavreck says that if a candidate is running a clarifying campaign, they should both talk about it the most, and talk about it more than their opponent. If we expand the words included beyond just economy and include words like pay, tax, trade and jobs, Clintons economic is still substantially larger, 19%, than Trumps, 12%, but still is not the largest. Over the last month, Clinton’s tweets have been dominated by safety considerations. Words like violence, gun, terrorist and safe are used in a quarter of all her tweets during the time period studied. Table 1: Word Frequencies in Trump and Clinton Tweets Between June 12th and July 12th Words Trump Clinton N Percent of Tweets N Percent of Tweets Economic 36 12.37% 76 18.72% Economy 3 1.03% 27 6.65% Pay 2 0.69% 18 4.43% Tax 3 1.03% 13 3.20% Trade 9 3.09% 1 0.25% Job 19 6.53% 17 4.19% Safety 34 11.68% 103 25.37% Violence 1 0.34% 31 7.64% Gun 2 0.69% 36 8.87% Terrorist 16 5.50% 29 7.14% Safe 15 5.15% 7 1.72% Societal 12 4.12% 63 15.52% Together 3
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