Oil Price Shock On Exchange Rate

Oil is the product that each and every one of us use. It can be used for fuel, heating and even cooking. The most often known for unstable price is crude oil or gasoline. According to the The Economist, The main reason for price shifts of oil is oversupply. The oil production in Saudi rose 10.3 million barrels per day. This increase is the effect of a new method that I being applied to oil extraction. This method is called fracking, fracking is where they drill into tight-rock formations then gradually turning horizontal for several thousand feet more. This results to accommodations to multiple oil wells. This new approved method of oil harvesting has raised the productivity gains and reduced the cost of harvesting oil.

In 2016, the crude oil price movement prices were unpredictable. The OPEC reference basket dropped 10 percent to $43.22 per pound. The ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both went down by 8.4 percent with ICE Brent at $47.08 per pound and NYMEX WTI at $45.76 per pound. This showed that there were uncertainties in the petroleum market. The future prices were predicted for 2017 that it would move higher. The World’s economic growth predictions was the same at 2.9% for 2016 but increased to 3.1% for 2017. Because of the 3rd quarter of 2016 in Japan and US, the OCED growth went from 1.6% to 1.7%. The demand for oil growth in 2016 has been increasing slightly to 1.24 mb/d. In 2017, the demand will be predicted with a decrease to 1.15 mb/d. OECD will

Several oil-countries have been facing economic and political turbulence as a result of the crash in oil prices, and there is disagreement among OPEC as how to handle the situation. (Krauss) While this is happening, America’s oil production continues to rise, as it inches closer to becoming an energy superpower in production and consumption; and countries that depend on their oil exports face recession.

The United States consumes more than 25% of the world’s petroleum products which is a large percentage, considering only 3% of the world’s oil reserves are produced by the United States. Given the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, understanding why Crude oil prices have skyrocketed in recent years, is not hard. According to the article “Ending America’s Oil Addiction,” the surge in crude oil prices can be reduced in large part to the simple concepts of supply and demand. (Cooper, 2008)

In a revealing article by George Perry (2001) the author discusses the economic impact that a disruption in the oil supplies would have on world oil prices. He states “Currently 28 percent of the world's crude oil comes from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) consisting of Arab Muslim nations, some of which are not part of the OPEC cartel. The governing regimes in all these countries are at some risk [due to the war on terrorism].” He goes on to state that in a worst case scenario the economic consequences of oil supply disruption would be “oil prices rise to $161 per barrel driving gasoline price to $4.84 per gallon. The increase in the nation's bill for products of crude oil rises by about 10 percent of GDP, which adds perhaps 15 percent to the inflation rate in the first year. And the recession is the steepest and deepest of the postwar period, with GDP declining nearly 5 percent the first year.”

As known to all, domestic trade is more costly than the international trade because of the existing comparative advantages in each country. A country in an autarky cannot benefit from arbitrage of trade; and naturally, the cost of production will be higher compared with the cost of international trade. In this case, the price of the domestic U.S. oil will raise. At the same time, the limiting imports will also ramp the price of imported oil from other countries, which results in an inevitable positive oil shock in an AS-AD model. Holding the aggregate demand curve unchanged, the growth of oil price straightly shifts the aggregate supply curve upward; the country confronted with inflation and short-run output cutbacks. It exactly matches the prediction that Yglesias said: “the overall economy would slow down with inflation-adjusted incomes falling” . Even if the economy could recover back to equilibrium after the shock disappears, it is still a long journey. Thus, restricting the imports would attract a visible shrink from the economy caused by booming of oil

This report will consist of the causes and consequences of the changing price of WTI crude oil and recent trends in the global price of oil. It will also include the effects of the ever-changing price of oil on individuals, business firms, governments and the economy.

Oil prices have not been the only influence on exchange rates however. During the rise of the Canadian dollar from 2002, downward pressure was put on the US dollar, causing it to depreciate against many western currencies. Since 1995 the American dollar has dropped 20%

One macroeconomic objective that might be affected by rising oil prices is the current account of the balance of payments. The current account is a record of the trade in goods and services, income flows, and current transfer. The balance of payments is a record of the financial transactions over a period of time between a country and its trading partners.

Oil prices have a direct and solid impact on some currencies. Two currencies that have a strong correlation to price of oil are the Canadian Dollar and GBP. When price of oil goes up, CAD goes on a rising spree for several months. It ahs been observed that oil prices trend consecutively for some months. Canada being one of the major oil exporters to the United States, official tender of Canada, CAD becomes very sensitive to any changes of price of oil.

The performance of Canadian dollar is directly correlated with the movement of crude oil prices, as the country’s exports and income is highly dependent on crude and other commodities. After experiencing some growth in the last few weeks, the loonie to dollar fell sharply in the latest trading session following the decline in crude oil prices.

Oil and foreign imports dependence exposes the economy to energy price volatility and price manipulation and may compromise national security and foreign policy interests;

This paper seeks to examine the relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and stock prices of these two countries through a financial market perspective. The gravity and intensity of which contains invaluable information for investors, corporations, policy makers and governments.

Shocks to the demand and supply of oil, caused by politics, business changes and cycles, and technological advances, cause oil price volatility across world economies. These factors explain the fluctuations that the global oil industry has faced since early 1990s (Aasim, 2015: 5). The economic boom between 2003 and 2008 caused an increase in oil prices, especially in oil-consuming economies such as India and China. On the contrary, petrol exporting nations could not match the high demands for oil. Oil prices increased during the 2008 financial crisis, picking up again in mid-2009 after the developing economies showed signs of economic growth. Oil supplies would later be disrupted by the Arab Spring uprisings in 2010 after which oil prices rose up to between $90$ and $120 per barrel between 2010 and 2014 (Baumeister & Kilian, 2016: 54). As supply exceeded the demand, oil prices would drop by 70% between June 2014 and January 2016. Thus report discusses the effects of oil prices on the aggregate demand and aggregate supply of a petrol importing nations.

This paper explorers a few of the possibilities of the reasons behind the increase and/or decrease in the price of oil, and the effects these prices have on the economy. It introduces some key players in the oil business itself and helps to break down the logic of how oil is the singular contributor of revenue to many economies worldwide. This research examines, through many resources, the different roles that the U.S. and foreign governments play in determining the price of oil, whether from an import or export standpoint. Also, many articles show how the stock market