Oil Prices: Driven by Supply and Demand

The consensus from the 1970s and 1980s was that there was an inverse relationship between oil prices and real economic activities. This belief later changed when the oil price crash of the mid-1980s failed to boost economic growth. Researchers then believed that increasing oil prices negatively affect the economy whereas falling oil prices have very little impact and by the 1990s this impact was assumed to be minimal (DePratto, de Resende and Maier 2009). More recently, researchers have found that increases in the oil prices adversely affect the economy whereas the impact of a decline in oil prices on GDP growth is only negligible (Jimenez-Rodriguez and Sanchez

The demand of gasoline has increased steadily over the last twenty years. In 1981 the U.S. averaged 6.5 million barrels of gasoline consumption per day. By comparison, in 2004 the U.S. averaged 9.2 million barrels of gasoline consumption per day. For most of this time period, gas prices stayed relatively the same. This is because the U.S. refineries increased their production to meet the demand and maintain the equilibrium price. Also during this same time period worldwide demand for crude oil increased 27%. Crude oil producers also increased their production to meet the demand keeping prices the same.

The United States consumes more than 25% of the world’s petroleum products which is a large percentage, considering only 3% of the world’s oil reserves are produced by the United States. Given the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, understanding why Crude oil prices have skyrocketed in recent years, is not hard. According to the article “Ending America’s Oil Addiction,” the surge in crude oil prices can be reduced in large part to the simple concepts of supply and demand. (Cooper, 2008)

Energy efficient alternatives to oil, such as solar power and hybrid cars, have grown in popularity over the recent years. When gas prices were at an all time high, people began purchasing hybrid cars to cut gas costs. For example, from 2010 to 2014, sales in electric cars increased by almost 120,000 cars a year. As demand for electric cars rose, demand for oil decreased. Moreover, decreased consumption of oil in other parts of the world had led to less demand. Recent economic problems in China, one of the largest importers of crude oil, and developing parts of the worlds have led to an overall global drop in demand for oil. When a situation occurs where there is an excess amount in the quantity of a product compared to the amount of product that is needed, the price of the item drops. Similarly, as less oil is demanded throughout the world and a record number of oil is being produced, the price of oil is driven

        Oil prices in the years 2000-2001 rose due to OPEC's decision to cut the supply of oil that was being produced. Foreign relations with the United States did little to the price increase of

For example, there is only so much oil in the world that is produced every year. In a capitalist society, the oil is distributed based on who is willing to pay the price. If the supply falls or demand increases, the price will generally rise. As we saw over the last decade, there can be other factors impacting oil use. When oil prices rise, the extra cost of a hybrid car becomes more appealing and some

For example, the Intercontinental Exchange while oil prices have not been decided on by oil producers such as Niami refinery fires, Nigerian Pirates and global oil markets. The laws of demand and supply are also predicted by the increase and decrease in the prices of oil. Oil prices are driven by the increase in demand for oil which has limited or completely destroyed the gains for suppliers and producers. While the U.S still consumes more oil than any other country, it is evident from the increase in oil demand that developing countries such as China, India and Japan are driving oil prices higher by their continous growth in oil demand (Anderson, 1).

Oil prices affect most American's daily lives. Whether it is used to fuel your car, a plane, to heat your home, or even if it is just used inside products, like plastic that we use daily, oil plays a role in all of our lives. Last year, in 2015, an extreme decline in gas prices swept the United States. For example, oil prices have decreased to less than $30 a barrel which is the lowest it has ever been in 12 years. There are many factors that can contribute to this sudden decline in gas prices, but their are three that are the most relevant. These include, the recent advancements in other fuel sources, the changes in the leading oil suppliers of the world, and the simple economic concept of supply and demand. These three ideas are all important in contributing to the fall of gas prices.

The oil price is partly determined by actual supply and demand and partly by expectation. Demand for energy is closely related to economic activity. Supply can be affected by weather and by geopolitical upsets. Recently, demand for energy is low because of weak economic activity, inctreased efficiency, and a growing switch away from oil to

Graph 1 represents the major companies and nations which product crude oil. It also represents how the bent crude oil price has fluctuated from 2004 until 2014. From 2004-2008 it is evident that there is a steady rise in oil prices, from $35-$150 per barrel. Towards the end of 2008 it is evident that there is a significant drop in oil prices, from $150- $32 per barrel. This is due to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) where the stock market collapsed on October 28, 1928, through this came the rapid decrease in oil prices. From 2009-2011 there is a steady increase in oil prices which was caused by the stock market repairing itself from impact of the GFC. In 2013 we are able to see declining oil

Comparing this to the world oil price in that same time period, there seems to be an overall positive relationship between oil price and imports and exports. The price rises about $50/barrel over three years until a sudden spike in 2007-2008, then drops dramatically before sharply rising again (Figure 2). The drop in total imports and exports in 2012 does not seem to be correlated with price, since there is an upward trend in price from 2009-2013. Aside from that year, it appears that there is an overall positive correlation between total imports and exports of oil and the price of oil, suggesting that because oil is an essential commodity, demand is much more inelastic than supply. Thus, imports rise when prices are high even though it is disadvantageous for importers because exporters are willing to provide a larger quantity and importers are less sensitive to price.

markets since December of 2000, when the Commodities Futures Modernization Act removed it from the items regulated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and C.F.T.C. Without control, the price swings in step with the actions of speculators that do not take delivery of the commodity, but wager on the price of future delivery and then sell the contracts if the markup is positive for them. With so many players in the futures markets, the actual users of the commodity are forced to buy the oil on long-term contracts that allow them to benefit from economies of scale, by the size of the purchase, and they get a hedge against inflation by purchasing well in advance of their actual need. Industrial users of oil and its derivatives make contract purchases to lock in a level of supply for their needs, but whenever there is a spike in the price of oil, the industrial users will claim that the spike forced them to raise their prices. We gullibly believe it and some of us pay more and some of us stop buying. The present group is small, and nonexistent when it comes to gasoline purchases. We are addicted to our cars and driving, thus we know the link between oil and gasoline, and we are quick to accept that OPEC raised the gas price theory on the evening news. This long narrative is to tell you that as you look for the shift in the equilibrium point of price to demand, understand that the movement is human nature and not actual market forces. Honest price changes convey information about the product or its manufacture, or its shipping cost, or if a tariff has been imposed. In every case, the data is an honest statement of the burden of material or labor or transport or taxes that has been revealed. With oil, there are too many liars inputting data into the price system for their own benefit. The worst feature of oil is that it is priced by cartels and by speculators and that only by hedging our purchases can we stop the

Before really understanding OPEC and the oil field, it is important to understand how they both began and what is currently occurring in the oil market. The production of oil has been around since the mid 1800’s here in the United States. In the late 1850’s, the first drilling rig made specifically for oil drilling was created by George Bissel and Edwin L. Drake. It was named the Drake well. Keep in mind that although this was the first oil drilling rig made, this is not the first time that someone had hit oil while drilling. In the other instances, the persons drilling were in search of salt or drinking water, and hit oil pockets as a side effect. After this significant event in history, the oil field has experienced many ups and

The oil price collapse between June 2014 and January 2015 was the third largest of the past 30 years and was driven by a combination of few conditions. (Kose, Ohnsorge, Stocker, 2015). It fell by about 50 percent between those periods and consisted of several phase. Initially, in June 2014, the oil price of Brent oil drops from $110 per barrel to $80 per barrel before the OPEC meeting in late November. The second phase of oil price drop occur in the early of January 2015, where oil price drops to below $50 per barrel. This drop however was recovered slightly on May 2015, when oil price rise to about $65 per barrel. After the OPEC meeting, the price of oil was adjusted rapidly to about $70 to $75 per barrel, and have remained between this price value until January 2015 (Husain, Arezki, Breuer, Haksar, Helbling, Medas, Sommer, and an IMF Staff Team, 2015). (Figure 1) (See Apendix A for more information regarding oil price drop)

World oil demand is increasing as emerging economies need more energy to increase their living standards. Estimates, shown below, are that by 2030, China and India as emerging markets will import over 70% to 90% of their fossil fuel needs (1) . Coupled to a continued high and growing demand for oil, makes this a robust market for the next 30 years.