Oil Prices and Economic Growth

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From the middle of twentieth century, due to exceptional importance of the crude oil in the supply of the world's energy demands, it has become one of the major indicators of economic activities of the world. Even after the appearance of alternate forms of energy like solar power, water and wind, the importance of crude oil as the main source of energy still cannot be denied. This sharp increase in the world oil prices and the volatile exchange rates are generally regarded as the factors of discouraging economic growth. Particularly, the very recent highs, recorded in the world oil market bring apprehension about possible slump in the economic growth in both developed and developing countries. A large number of researchers proposed…show more content…
From 1990’s to 2003 global demand for the oil grew at the rate of 1.3 % whereas for the People Republic of China and India the combined rates is at 7 % and accounted for almost 40 percent of the demand growth. There are various empirical literatures, investigating the relationship between oil price variations and economic growth. The existence of a negative relationship between macro-economic activities and oil prices has become widely accepted especially after Hamilton’s 1983 work. He pointed out that increase in oil prices, reduced US output growth from 1948 to 1980. Hamilton's findings have been confirmed and extended by many authors and researcher. Hooker (1996) confirmed and extended Hamilton’s work for the period 1948 to 1972 and demonstrated that the oil price level and its changes do reflect the influence on GDP growth. This is shown in the third and fourth quarters after the shock that rise of 10% in oil prices lead to a GDP growth decrease of approximately 0.6 %. Accordingly, Lee et al. (1995) Mork (1989), and Hamilton (1996) presented the non-linear transformations of oil prices to re-establish the negative association between oil prices increases and economic decline, as well as these researchers also analyzed Granger causality between both variables. The result of Granger causality test proved that oil prices Granger cause U.S. economy before 1973
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