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Olam International

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SINGAPORE MITA No. 013/06/2008 Company Report 12 March 2009 Olam International Ltd Gravity-defying growth Resilient to recession. Olam International Ltd (Olam) has been delivering consistent revenue and earnings growth since its listing in 2005, and growth momentum is expected to sustain despite the global recession. Management has guided for 16% to 20% topline CAGR and 25% to 30% earnings CAGR over the next three years. These goals are achievable, given that demand for food is relatively inelastic and earnings are therefore less vulnerable to the global economic downturn. Olam has already proven its resilience by delivering a 32.9% growth in 1H09 core earnings despite the recent collapse of commodity prices, demonstrating its ability …show more content…

Olam's key investment merit lies in its resilient earnings growth profile against a climate of earnings contraction. We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and S$1.37 fair value estimate based on 10x FY10 PER. Key risks include high gearing, counter-party risk, and dilution risk from its convertible bonds. Page 5 12 March 2009 Olam International Ltd Section B: SWOT Analysis Exhibit 5: Swot Analysis Strengths Strong track record Well diversified High barriers to entry Dividend policy - 25% of NPAT Resilient to commodity cycles Weaknesses High gearing Imperfect inventory hedges Illiquid nature of certain products Unable to participate in economic recovery (via metals and energy) Opportunities Adjacent products and markets Mergers and acquisitions Threats Geopolitical risk Refinancing risk in light of credit crunch Counter-party risk Slowing demand Supply-side risk Source: OIR Strengths Sound business model. Olam's focus on agricultural commodities allows it to be a specialised niche player with keen market intelligence in this space, while its portfolio spread of 20 different products, its presence in 60 countries, and its reach to 6500 customers and over 200,000 suppliers ensures that the group's operations are well-diversified. In addition, Olam's integration of supply chain activities from sourcing (upstream) and processing

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