The topic I chose for our assigned is Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). The reason for this topic is because of how valuable oil is to the world and how much we are depended on it. For the Middle East, the “majority of economic growth and stability depends upon the natural resource of oil.” (Satterlee, B. C. 2014). However, there is always a conflict and partnership concerns for nations not in the region as the world dependency on this natural resource is only increasing.
Explanation
The Middle East is a major source of oil which the world depends upon for now and future success of their respective countries. The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) recognizes this needs and the
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It also takes us beyond the precious commodity, oil, outside the Middle East.
Major Article Summary
The article regarding the Future Oil Demand and Supply on the Horizon of 2022, takes into accounts two scenarios related to the future of our world; future oil prices based on the analysis of expected future oil demand and supply in 2022.
In the first scenario, the current supply for number of barrels of oil per day is expected to increase in the next few years in the developing countries such as China, India and Indonesia, which will lead to a shortage of supply by 2020 and beyond. Due to rising interest rate, there is a decrease in conventional oil production in the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico and shift to increasingly, expensive oil such as shale and deep-water oil to replace depleting fields and will not be able to compensate for the US conventional oil production. (Mustafa, H. 2016). Which would mean the future oil supply will come from Middle East, Venezuela, and Russia. Given the unrest and turmoil in the Middle East region for many years to come, the future oil supply and price will be at a premium. Thus, the expected oil price is to fluctuate around $80 in 2022.
In the second scenario, it makes the assumptions of significant growth in conventional oil production and continuation of techniques pioneered for shale oil production to other areas in the U.S and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. There is
In our society, oil is one of the core requirements. Whether it is to drive from a point A to a point B or to fly between distant countries, oil always had a fundamental impact on our civilization. Its impact is felt, on a daily basis and under many aspects. Not a day goes by without hearing about the Brent's changing undulation, on the markets in New York or London. Some have thought that the desire to gain control of Iran's oil resources was the core of the CIA's intervention in that country, in the 1950s. In recent years, it was considered, by left-wing groups, that the war in Iraq was based upon an attempt of foreign control over the Iraqi petroleum resources. Even though both events have an unquestioned place
The Middle East is one of the birthplaces of human kind’s civilization. Since the Ancient Egypt, Sumer, the Arab Empire, Turkey Empire, or even to present day, the Middle East has always been a valuable strategic point for not only because of its geographic location but also it full of petroleum and nature gas. According the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) that 66% of the global oil reserves are in the Middle East and only 6% in North America, this makes a lot of powerful countries want to share a pieces of the Middle East, Stephen mentions “Much of the world 's oil wealth exists along the Persian Gulf, with particularly large reserves in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
Two-thirds of the world’s remaining oil reserves are in the Middle East which will make international policy imperative in the future (Campbell 2007). It is
Middle East is strategically important region where mostly world half of oil reserves are located. Three countries: Saudi Arabia, Iran and United Arab Emirates accounted for 57% of total Middle East liquids fuels production. (Liquid fuels production in Middle Eastern and North African countries n.d.) Although due to increased domestic production of petroleum and natural gas, the United States is reducing its dependence on foreign oil with imported liquid fuels, but still oil means a lot to the US as oil prices is determined internationally by what is available for all global consumers. Therefore, to safeguard the security of Oil supply in the Middle East and ensure stable access to affordable oil is in the vital interest of the America. (Mexican crude oil shipments to Europe and Asia are rising as U.S. imports fall
Some emergent countries have put a lot of effort to find new reservoir or find the best way to recover oil from deep seas such as The pre-salt in Brazil. America has high projections for the future with fracking. However, lower prices would put at risk investments in unconventional sources. For example, tar sands, shale oil, deep sea and fracking. Our forecast is that the crude oil price tend to slowly rise until the market balance it self to avoid oversupply especially because of the weakening in the global oil
Nine months after the last pullout of U.S troops, Iraq’s oil production has been growing so rapidly that world markets are now looking to Baghdad to play a major role in keeping global oil flowing and moderating prices in the years ahead. Even though the International Energy Agency (The IEA) does believe that Iraq has the potential to boost the global oil supply in coming years, they also have concerns over whether Iraq is stable enough for the task. The article entitled “Iraq Oil Production Poised to Lead World Oil Supply Growth, but Obstacles Loom,” by Thomas K. Grose is about how Iraq has the capability to lead Earth’s oil productions, but it also takes into consideration the challenges that Iraq faces as a country. The following is a report over the two parts of the title of Thomas’s Article.
Thus most industrial nations wanted to change their dependency upon oil, which sparked many efforts in oil conservation, restrictions, and research into alternative energy resources. This issue has caused many problems in international relations there and even today it is the root of political skirmishes. Many countries believed that the oil companies should be broken up so that there would not be any monopoly in this giant industry. This time of exploration was iconic because of the pressure in the oil industry. Also, there was a prediction during this time that made a close connection between economic health and the control of oil resources.
In 1973, Arab states and Israel were in the midst of war. In retaliation of the U.S. resupplying Israeli military, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) initiated an embargo against the United States and other countries that supported Israel. This embargo banned petroleum exports to certain countries, introduced cuts in oil production, and had a drastic effect on the U.S. economy (Oil Embargo, 1973–1974). It led to quadrupling oil prices and oil shortages that led to a widespread crisis across the United States and other countries facing the embargo. The crisis caused a global realization that the world seemed to be running out of oil and provided incentive to look to alternative energy
In the year 2050, the whole world notice that oil was starting to become scarce. One thing all the countries saw was all the oil refineries were starting to go out of production which lead to high prices. Although
56% of the United States’ consumed energy comes from oil and oil related products. 81% percent of the world’s oil reserves are found in the Middle East (OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves). Therefore, the Middle East has a big say over the case of oil. U.S. foreign policy should take into consideration option four when dealing with oil in the Middle East. Option lays out the plan of continued oil-trading with the Middle East but, it immediately calls for the funding for domestic alternative energy sources. If the United States was to urgently subtract all oil importing and pull out from the Middle East, then their economies would cripple. Saudi Arabia, for example, has become an oil powerhouse in the world. 83% of the exports comes from oil (Saudi Arabia). The companies in Saudi Arabia that extract the oil are American. If the United States were to implement renewable energy sources domestically, this would allow for a stalled gray area. The U.S. could then gradually shift the economic dependency from oil, to renewable energy sources over a maximum time frame of 50 years and a minimum by 2050. Option four addresses not only the current oil problems, but it also lays out a plan that can allow the U.S. to sustain itself in the future. To summarize, option four, has the best plan for the topic of oil in the Middle East, which is the gradual withdrawal from the dependency of
The 1973-1974 Oil Crisis was a result of a myriad of issues. The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) took concerted action in continuously reducing their oil production “until their economic and political objectives were achieved.” The production was reduced so much that in some areas the oil prices dramatically rose “six-fold.” The OAPEC countries production cuts disrupted the industrial countries’ necessary oil supplies and there was nothing that could be done to alleviate the price spike, thanks in large part to the industrial countries insufficient spare oil capacity (Scott 28). Moreover, the Yom Kippur War, the fourth of the Arab-Israeli wars, was waged, in which Egypt and Syria led a coalition of Arab states against Israel from October 6. Within a week, Iraq had “nationalized American interests in Basrah Petroleum’s southern Iraqi production” and three eastern Mediterranean pipeline terminals had been shut down. Furthermore, on October 27, ten Arab states had announced “a progressive step-by-step production cutback and embargoes” against the United States, the Netherlands, and Denmark due to their alleged support for Israel (Lantzke 219). Essentially, the embargoes were politically employed by the Arab producers’ as a weapon of coercion, in that the embargoes were designed to influence policy changes in the countries that were friendly to Israel.
It can be noted that energy resources such as oil plays a substantial role in shaping the globe. Reasons for why correlations between political violence in the Middle East and the geopolitics of oil can be connected is due to the Middle East being one of the most prominent locations in the world to refine oil along with the regions long history of political and economic turmoil. Examining the history of the Middle East throughout the years, it can be said that, both internally and externally Middle Eastern nations are heavily involved in oil related conflicts against one another or find themselves in conflicts with others, such as the U.S, over oil distribution and political direction to which issues open the region to foreign interference by third party entities who may use these discrepancies to pursue national interests. The contemporary phenomenon of terrorism within the region is both a product of historical development and political instability as these factors in recent time has led to a growing occurrence of terrorism that seeks to capitalize off the instability that state actors find themselves in. If we were to make an assessment of the growing modern-day reliance on oil, which has significantly increased globally and the on-going political instability occurring all around the Persian Gulf then, it should be known that, the conflicts to which these issues present are no where near close to being resolved. These existing issues will only further contribute to the
Post-1945, there emerged an international oil establishment named the postwar petroleum order. Before 1939, the output of petroleum in the Middle Eastern countries was not high and the region contributed only a marginal share to the world petroleum production. Before the postwar years, British Petroleum (BP) was the dominant player in the petroleum market however, after the war, five American companies broke BP’s monopoly. This postwar order was characterized by a corporate consolidation of the major oil companies in the Middle East. The primary aim of the order was to maximize the production of petroleum in the Persian Gulf and supply the increased
There are two primary factors influenced the market of energy: population and economic output (Exxon Mobil, www.exxonmobil.com). According to International Energy Agency (International Energy Agency, www.oilmarket.org) global oil product demand will rise up from 84.5 mb/d in 2006 to 86.1 mb/d in 2007, and in forecast for 2030 will grow 1.8% per year. The world oil prices are forecasted to decline from $68 per barrel in 2006 to $49 per barrel in 2014, then rise to $59 per barrel in 2030 ($95 per barrel on a nominal basis). Total world liquids consumption rises to 118 million barrels per day in 2030.
World oil demand is increasing as emerging economies need more energy to increase their living standards. Estimates, shown below, are that by 2030, China and India as emerging markets will import over 70% to 90% of their fossil fuel needs (1) . Coupled to a continued high and growing demand for oil, makes this a robust market for the next 30 years.